Georgia

SenateD+8.6

U.S. House · projectedD 5 · R 9

GovernorR+1.8

2024 presidentR+2.2

Forecast as of October 28, 2026. U.S. Senate: Jon Ossoff ahead of Mike Collins by D+8.6, with a 93 in 100 chance to finish ahead in November. If no candidate passes 50%, a runoff follows on December 1, 2026. Governor: Rick Jackson ahead of Keisha Lance Bottoms by R+1.8, with a 61 in 100 chance to finish ahead in November. If no candidate passes 50%, a runoff follows on December 1, 2026. U.S. House: Democrats are favored in 5 of the state's 14 districts and Republicans in 9.

Closest races

GovernorKeisha Lance Bottoms vs. Rick JacksonTilt RR+1.8 U.S. SenateJon Ossoff vs. Mike CollinsLikely DD+8.6 GA-01Jim Kingston vs. Amanda HollowellLikely RR+8.8 GA-07Rich McCormick vs. Anthony KozyckiLikely RR+9.2

Projected delegation: D 5 · R 9

GA-01Jim Kingston vs. Amanda HollowellLikely RR+8.8 GA-02Sanford Bishop vs. Matt DaySolid DD+19.0 GA-03Brian Jack vs. Maura KellerSolid RR+15.8 GA-04Hank Johnson vs. James DuffieSolid DD+54.8 GA-05Nikema Williams vs. John SalvesenSolid DD+72.0 GA-06Lucy McBath vs. Kevin MartinSolid DD+52.6 GA-07Rich McCormick vs. Anthony KozyckiLikely RR+9.2 GA-08Austin Scott vs. Kelly EstiSolid RR+24.2 GA-09Andrew Clyde vs. Caitlyn GegenSolid RR+26.0 GA-10Houston Gaines vs. Pamela DeLancyLikely RR+12.0 GA-11John Cowan vs. Chris HardenLikely RR+9.4 GA-12Rick Allen vs. Ceretta SmithLikely RR+10.0 GA-13Jasmine Clark vs. Jonathan ChavezSolid DD+43.6 GA-14Clay Fuller vs. Shawn HarrisSolid RR+24.0

How Georgia decides its electionsone exception

U.S. Senate · U.S. House · GovernorGeorgia — a majority is required runoff December 1, 2026Our forecast simulates the November vote. It does not simulate the runoff: we have no governed model of how a third candidate's voters behave four weeks later, or of runoff turnout, so we publish the November result and the chance a runoff is needed, and we do not publish an ultimate win probability.