Senate
Chance of R control46 in 100
No party has a majority chance of control; Republicans have the largest modeled share. Democrats hold 20 of 38 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 19.1 of 38 · 80% range 16–21
See all 38 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Wayne | 431,371 (65.2%) | 215,912 (32.6%) | D+32.6 | 661,844 |
| Oakland | 330,368 (55.4%) | 253,003 (42.4%) | D+13.0 | 596,494 |
| Macomb | 171,124 (43.5%) | 213,580 (54.3%) | R+10.8 | 393,358 |
| Kent | 150,926 (52.5%) | 129,992 (45.3%) | D+7.3 | 287,237 |
| Genesee | 90,326 (52.4%) | 78,354 (45.4%) | D+6.9 | 172,474 |
| Washtenaw | 123,053 (72.0%) | 44,191 (25.8%) | D+46.1 | 171,006 |
| Ottawa | 54,460 (39.5%) | 80,362 (58.3%) | R+18.8 | 137,855 |
| Ingham | 74,042 (64.7%) | 37,814 (33.1%) | D+31.7 | 114,372 |
| Kalamazoo | 66,042 (58.7%) | 44,026 (39.1%) | D+19.6 | 112,544 |
| Livingston | 38,873 (38.0%) | 61,186 (59.8%) | R+21.8 | 102,310 |
| Saginaw | 38,931 (48.5%) | 39,542 (49.3%) | R+0.8 | 80,238 |
| St. Clair | 24,528 (32.9%) | 48,413 (64.9%) | R+32.0 | 74,582 |
| Muskegon | 36,132 (49.1%) | 35,782 (48.7%) | D+0.5 | 73,532 |
| Monroe | 25,886 (36.7%) | 43,140 (61.1%) | R+24.4 | 70,579 |
| Berrien | 29,987 (45.9%) | 33,855 (51.9%) | R+5.9 | 65,278 |
| Jackson | 25,506 (39.4%) | 37,825 (58.4%) | R+19.0 | 64,756 |
| Allegan | 20,213 (36.4%) | 34,116 (61.4%) | R+25.0 | 55,551 |
| Calhoun | 22,811 (43.1%) | 28,949 (54.7%) | R+11.6 | 52,924 |
| Eaton | 24,408 (48.5%) | 24,843 (49.3%) | R+0.9 | 50,359 |
| Grand Traverse | 23,677 (48.8%) | 23,752 (49.0%) | R+0.2 | 48,496 |
| Bay | 20,278 (42.8%) | 26,071 (55.0%) | R+12.2 | 47,392 |
| Lapeer | 12,948 (30.2%) | 28,946 (67.6%) | R+37.3 | 42,836 |
| Lenawee | 16,412 (38.6%) | 25,162 (59.2%) | R+20.6 | 42,509 |
| Midland | 16,428 (42.3%) | 21,575 (55.5%) | R+13.2 | 38,858 |
| Clinton | 17,650 (45.7%) | 20,107 (52.1%) | R+6.4 | 38,606 |
| Van Buren | 13,531 (42.5%) | 17,576 (55.3%) | R+12.7 | 31,807 |
| Shiawassee | 12,129 (38.6%) | 18,615 (59.2%) | R+20.6 | 31,436 |
| Marquette | 16,382 (54.4%) | 13,085 (43.4%) | D+10.9 | 30,130 |
| Barry | 9,784 (32.8%) | 19,402 (65.0%) | R+32.2 | 29,843 |
| Montcalm | 8,177 (30.4%) | 18,149 (67.4%) | R+37.0 | 26,918 |
| Ionia | 8,936 (34.0%) | 16,769 (63.8%) | R+29.8 | 26,283 |
| Isabella | 11,084 (46.5%) | 12,205 (51.3%) | R+4.7 | 23,813 |
| Tuscola | 6,795 (28.6%) | 16,418 (69.2%) | R+40.5 | 23,735 |
| St. Joseph | 7,473 (33.0%) | 14,675 (64.8%) | R+31.8 | 22,646 |
| Newaygo | 6,441 (28.5%) | 15,624 (69.3%) | R+40.7 | 22,561 |
| Cass | 7,183 (33.4%) | 13,878 (64.4%) | R+31.1 | 21,535 |
| Hillsdale | 4,668 (24.3%) | 14,084 (73.5%) | R+49.1 | 19,174 |
| Sanilac | 4,710 (26.1%) | 12,928 (71.7%) | R+45.6 | 18,035 |
| Emmet | 7,839 (44.4%) | 9,428 (53.4%) | R+9.0 | 17,655 |
| Mecosta | 6,074 (35.0%) | 10,922 (62.8%) | R+27.9 | 17,378 |
| Delta | 5,915 (35.0%) | 10,616 (62.8%) | R+27.8 | 16,903 |
| Branch | 4,710 (28.9%) | 11,227 (68.9%) | R+40.0 | 16,295 |
| Gratiot | 5,283 (34.4%) | 9,717 (63.4%) | R+28.9 | 15,337 |
| Wexford | 4,891 (32.5%) | 9,828 (65.3%) | R+32.8 | 15,050 |
| Houghton | 6,220 (41.6%) | 8,414 (56.2%) | R+14.7 | 14,963 |
| Huron | 4,345 (29.6%) | 9,991 (68.2%) | R+38.5 | 14,658 |
| Chippewa | 5,363 (37.8%) | 8,514 (60.0%) | R+22.2 | 14,189 |
| Mason | 5,485 (39.3%) | 8,160 (58.5%) | R+19.2 | 13,952 |
| Leelanau | 7,306 (53.5%) | 6,055 (44.3%) | D+9.2 | 13,662 |
| Charlevoix | 5,644 (41.4%) | 7,701 (56.4%) | R+15.1 | 13,645 |
| Clare | 4,176 (31.3%) | 8,889 (66.5%) | R+35.3 | 13,359 |
| Alpena | 4,737 (35.6%) | 8,269 (62.2%) | R+26.6 | 13,299 |
| Antrim | 4,953 (38.0%) | 7,805 (59.8%) | R+21.9 | 13,045 |
| Cheboygan | 4,361 (34.4%) | 8,050 (63.4%) | R+29.1 | 12,690 |
| Roscommon | 4,177 (33.6%) | 7,964 (64.2%) | R+30.5 | 12,414 |
| Otsego | 3,979 (32.2%) | 8,090 (65.6%) | R+33.3 | 12,341 |
| Iosco | 4,219 (34.7%) | 7,670 (63.1%) | R+28.4 | 12,156 |
| Gladwin | 3,570 (29.8%) | 8,135 (68.0%) | R+38.1 | 11,968 |
| Dickinson | 3,774 (31.9%) | 7,797 (65.9%) | R+34.0 | 11,831 |
| Manistee | 4,957 (41.9%) | 6,603 (55.9%) | R+13.9 | 11,820 |
| Oceana | 4,018 (35.0%) | 7,219 (62.8%) | R+27.9 | 11,490 |
| Osceola | 2,635 (25.9%) | 7,329 (71.9%) | R+46.1 | 10,188 |
| Menominee | 3,366 (33.4%) | 6,504 (64.4%) | R+31.1 | 10,092 |
| Benzie | 4,511 (45.4%) | 5,197 (52.4%) | R+6.9 | 9,926 |
| Ogemaw | 2,823 (28.9%) | 6,714 (68.8%) | R+39.9 | 9,752 |
| Kalkaska | 2,529 (28.4%) | 6,184 (69.4%) | R+41.0 | 8,909 |
| Arenac | 2,120 (30.0%) | 4,801 (67.8%) | R+37.9 | 7,077 |
| Missaukee | 1,546 (21.9%) | 5,369 (75.9%) | R+54.1 | 7,071 |
| Presque Isle | 2,385 (35.3%) | 4,219 (62.5%) | R+27.2 | 6,753 |
| Crawford | 2,177 (33.2%) | 4,229 (64.6%) | R+31.3 | 6,550 |
| Gogebic | 2,675 (41.8%) | 3,591 (56.0%) | R+14.3 | 6,407 |
| Alcona | 1,694 (29.3%) | 3,960 (68.5%) | R+39.2 | 5,781 |
| Mackinac | 2,098 (37.5%) | 3,372 (60.3%) | R+22.8 | 5,593 |
| Iron | 1,931 (35.6%) | 3,380 (62.2%) | R+26.7 | 5,430 |
| Lake | 1,832 (34.3%) | 3,393 (63.5%) | R+29.2 | 5,343 |
| Montmorency | 1,347 (27.3%) | 3,482 (70.5%) | R+43.3 | 4,938 |
| Alger | 1,627 (40.0%) | 2,347 (57.8%) | R+17.7 | 4,063 |
| Oscoda | 1,111 (27.7%) | 2,813 (70.1%) | R+42.4 | 4,012 |
| Schoolcraft | 1,281 (33.9%) | 2,420 (64.0%) | R+30.1 | 3,784 |
| Baraga | 1,182 (35.3%) | 2,091 (62.5%) | R+27.2 | 3,347 |
| Ontonagon | 1,042 (35.1%) | 1,861 (62.7%) | R+27.6 | 2,968 |
| Luce | 615 (26.7%) | 1,641 (71.1%) | R+44.5 | 2,307 |
| Keweenaw | 541 (43.5%) | 677 (54.4%) | R+10.8 | 1,245 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Both chambers carry the Call the Map state legislature forecast — the same model the Chamber Board publishes.
No party has a majority chance of control; Republicans have the largest modeled share. Democrats hold 20 of 38 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 19.1 of 38 · 80% range 16–21
See all 38 districts →Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 58 of 110 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 52.7 of 110 · 80% range 44–55
See all 110 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowSplit control
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | D | R |
| House | R | R |