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The States · 2026 outlook

Virginia

One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.

2024 presidentD+5.8
SenateD+17.2
U.S. HouseD 7R 4
GovernorD holds
County by county · U.S. Senateprojected margin
County view
Projected margin
R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
Striped = seat changes partyProjected county outcome

Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.

County numbers

Fairfax294,759 (74.2%)98,596 (24.8%)D+49.4397,328
Loudoun102,966 (66.4%)50,642 (32.6%)D+33.7155,160
Virginia Beach88,237 (57.0%)65,076 (42.0%)D+15.0154,862
Prince William104,106 (67.3%)49,087 (31.7%)D+35.6154,740
Chesterfield82,742 (58.0%)58,429 (41.0%)D+17.1142,597
Henrico83,763 (68.2%)37,828 (30.8%)D+37.4122,819
Arlington73,083 (83.7%)13,318 (15.3%)D+68.587,274
Chesapeake49,832 (57.5%)35,984 (41.5%)D+16.086,683
Richmond62,814 (85.4%)9,978 (13.6%)D+71.973,527
Norfolk44,173 (75.9%)13,474 (23.1%)D+52.758,229
Stafford31,609 (55.9%)24,342 (43.1%)D+12.956,516
Alexandria45,344 (83.3%)8,547 (15.7%)D+67.654,435
Spotsylvania27,416 (50.9%)25,900 (48.1%)D+2.853,855
Newport News36,035 (70.1%)14,872 (28.9%)D+41.251,421
Hanover20,215 (40.7%)28,980 (58.3%)R+17.649,692
Albemarle31,905 (70.3%)13,018 (28.7%)D+41.645,377
Hampton31,606 (74.2%)10,552 (24.8%)D+49.442,584
Roanoke16,682 (43.2%)21,543 (55.8%)R+12.638,611
Suffolk22,759 (62.7%)13,152 (36.3%)D+26.536,274
Frederick14,226 (40.2%)20,802 (58.8%)R+18.635,382
James City19,650 (56.8%)14,606 (42.2%)D+14.634,602
Bedford9,922 (28.7%)24,292 (70.3%)R+41.634,560
Rockingham11,393 (34.5%)21,307 (64.5%)R+30.033,030
Montgomery18,179 (57.2%)13,300 (41.8%)D+15.331,797
Fauquier13,729 (45.3%)16,249 (53.7%)R+8.330,281
Augusta8,881 (29.5%)20,885 (69.5%)R+39.930,067
Roanoke19,124 (66.8%)9,233 (32.2%)D+34.528,643
Portsmouth20,649 (73.6%)7,118 (25.4%)D+48.228,047
York13,733 (51.1%)12,881 (47.9%)D+3.226,883
Lynchburg13,775 (55.2%)10,938 (43.8%)D+11.424,963
Pittsylvania7,749 (33.4%)15,204 (65.6%)R+32.223,185
Campbell6,518 (30.8%)14,463 (68.2%)R+37.521,193
Franklin6,742 (32.1%)14,065 (66.9%)R+34.821,017
Washington5,297 (26.5%)14,500 (72.5%)R+46.019,997
Culpeper8,532 (43.9%)10,687 (55.1%)R+11.119,413
Henry6,780 (39.2%)10,325 (59.8%)R+20.517,278
Isle of Wight7,550 (45.0%)9,057 (54.0%)R+9.016,775
Shenandoah5,470 (33.0%)10,940 (66.0%)R+33.016,576
Louisa6,952 (42.5%)9,247 (56.5%)R+14.016,363
Charlottesville13,845 (87.4%)1,841 (11.6%)D+75.815,844
Gloucester5,615 (35.7%)9,967 (63.3%)R+27.715,739
Warren5,488 (35.8%)9,698 (63.2%)R+27.415,339
Orange6,552 (43.3%)8,423 (55.7%)R+12.415,126
Botetourt4,611 (31.0%)10,125 (68.0%)R+37.014,885
Powhatan4,410 (31.1%)9,618 (67.9%)R+36.814,170
Tazewell2,424 (18.0%)10,943 (81.0%)R+63.113,502
Goochland5,946 (44.6%)7,258 (54.4%)R+9.813,337
Halifax5,642 (46.5%)6,369 (52.5%)R+6.012,132
Pulaski3,894 (32.4%)8,014 (66.6%)R+34.312,028
Danville7,801 (64.9%)4,091 (34.1%)D+30.912,012
Caroline6,256 (52.1%)5,626 (46.9%)D+5.212,002
Prince George5,440 (45.5%)6,404 (53.5%)R+8.111,964
Amherst4,436 (37.7%)7,210 (61.3%)R+23.611,764
Harrisonburg8,168 (69.7%)3,440 (29.3%)D+40.311,725
Accomack5,771 (49.5%)5,768 (49.5%)Even11,656
Wise2,422 (21.2%)8,870 (77.8%)R+56.511,406
New Kent4,252 (37.4%)7,018 (61.6%)R+24.311,384
Fluvanna5,895 (52.0%)5,331 (47.0%)D+5.011,339
Mecklenburg5,139 (46.5%)5,809 (52.5%)R+6.111,059
Carroll2,279 (20.7%)8,598 (78.3%)R+57.510,987
Manassas7,185 (66.0%)3,599 (33.0%)D+32.910,893
Dinwiddie4,850 (45.8%)5,643 (53.2%)R+7.510,599
Wythe2,491 (23.7%)7,901 (75.3%)R+51.510,497
King George4,509 (43.2%)5,832 (55.8%)R+12.710,445
Smyth2,352 (24.0%)7,354 (75.0%)R+51.09,804
Staunton5,545 (60.1%)3,584 (38.9%)D+21.39,221
Russell1,823 (19.8%)7,281 (79.2%)R+59.39,196
Fredericksburg6,514 (71.0%)2,569 (28.0%)D+43.09,175
Fairfax6,635 (72.6%)2,415 (26.4%)D+46.29,141
Page2,449 (27.3%)6,443 (71.7%)R+44.58,982
Salem3,980 (44.5%)4,870 (54.5%)R+10.08,939
Petersburg7,889 (88.7%)913 (10.3%)D+78.58,891
Rockbridge3,257 (37.6%)5,326 (61.4%)R+23.98,670
Greene3,440 (42.0%)4,663 (57.0%)R+15.08,185
Winchester4,820 (60.0%)3,138 (39.0%)D+20.98,038
King William2,712 (34.5%)5,069 (64.5%)R+30.07,860
Waynesboro3,971 (51.8%)3,617 (47.2%)D+4.67,665
Scott1,311 (17.4%)6,132 (81.6%)R+64.17,518
Westmoreland3,598 (50.0%)3,524 (49.0%)D+1.07,194
Lee1,145 (16.7%)5,658 (82.3%)R+65.76,872
Southampton3,000 (44.9%)3,617 (54.1%)R+9.26,684
Clarke3,146 (47.3%)3,438 (51.7%)R+4.46,651
Patrick1,532 (23.2%)4,996 (75.8%)R+52.56,594
Appomattox1,939 (29.6%)4,551 (69.4%)R+39.86,556
Floyd2,380 (36.4%)4,099 (62.6%)R+26.36,544
Prince Edward3,646 (56.9%)2,697 (42.1%)D+14.86,407
Nelson3,299 (51.7%)3,020 (47.3%)D+4.46,383
Buchanan1,123 (17.7%)5,155 (81.3%)R+63.66,341
Giles1,683 (26.8%)4,532 (72.2%)R+45.46,278
Hopewell3,765 (61.5%)2,297 (37.5%)D+24.06,123
Falls Church5,111 (83.8%)926 (15.2%)D+68.66,098
Colonial Heights2,264 (37.2%)3,754 (61.8%)R+24.56,079
Madison2,159 (37.6%)3,522 (61.4%)R+23.85,738
Alleghany1,742 (31.0%)3,830 (68.1%)R+37.15,628
Northumberland2,576 (46.2%)2,947 (52.8%)R+6.75,579
Grayson1,185 (21.5%)4,270 (77.5%)R+56.05,510
Amelia1,871 (34.3%)3,535 (64.7%)R+30.55,461
Poquoson1,656 (30.4%)3,745 (68.6%)R+38.35,456
Buckingham2,539 (47.2%)2,788 (51.8%)R+4.65,381
Williamsburg3,972 (74.4%)1,313 (24.6%)D+49.85,338
Brunswick3,235 (61.5%)1,973 (37.5%)D+24.05,261
Bristol1,730 (34.0%)3,304 (65.0%)R+31.05,085
Lancaster2,574 (52.0%)2,326 (47.0%)D+5.04,949
Dickenson1,105 (23.1%)3,638 (75.9%)R+52.94,791
Middlesex1,937 (41.4%)2,695 (57.6%)R+16.24,679
Nottoway2,166 (46.5%)2,446 (52.5%)R+6.04,659
Northampton2,761 (59.4%)1,838 (39.6%)D+19.94,645
Radford2,611 (58.6%)1,797 (40.4%)D+18.34,453
Essex2,219 (53.8%)1,863 (45.2%)D+8.74,123
Charlotte1,696 (41.5%)2,347 (57.5%)R+15.94,084
Manassas Park2,793 (68.8%)1,223 (30.1%)D+38.74,057
Mathews1,434 (35.6%)2,557 (63.4%)R+27.84,031
Lunenburg1,789 (44.8%)2,168 (54.2%)R+9.53,997
Martinsville2,580 (67.1%)1,229 (31.9%)D+35.13,847
Cumberland1,734 (46.5%)1,959 (52.5%)R+6.03,730
Rappahannock1,608 (46.9%)1,783 (52.1%)R+5.13,425
Sussex1,996 (60.0%)1,297 (39.0%)D+21.03,326
Surry1,752 (58.2%)1,229 (40.8%)D+17.43,011
Charles City1,877 (63.6%)1,044 (35.4%)D+28.22,951
Greensville1,804 (61.8%)1,088 (37.2%)D+24.52,921
King and Queen1,232 (43.4%)1,577 (55.6%)R+12.12,837
Richmond1,166 (41.2%)1,635 (57.8%)R+16.52,829
Franklin1,754 (66.6%)855 (32.4%)D+34.12,635
Bland417 (17.3%)1,971 (81.7%)R+64.42,412
Craig445 (21.0%)1,656 (78.0%)R+57.02,122
Lexington1,357 (69.7%)571 (29.3%)D+40.41,947
Buena Vista660 (34.0%)1,261 (65.0%)R+31.01,940
Galax613 (33.2%)1,216 (65.8%)R+32.61,847
Bath507 (28.9%)1,231 (70.1%)R+41.31,756
Covington700 (41.6%)966 (57.4%)R+15.91,683
Emporia1,056 (71.3%)410 (27.7%)D+43.51,481
Norton369 (33.0%)737 (66.0%)R+32.91,117
Highland325 (31.3%)705 (67.8%)R+36.51,040

Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.

State government2026 outlook

Trifecta nowDemocratic trifecta

ChamberNowProjected
SenateDD
HouseDD
State legislative outlook · no chamber forecastSenate and House are not on the 2026 ballot, so their control carries unchanged.
Governor control: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026Open the full Chamber Board →
The closest races in Virginiaby forecast margin