Virginia Senate polls 2026
Mark Warner (D) vs Bert Mizusawa (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The poll average
2 polls countedThe poll average, D+21.1, is of two polls, which run from D+18.0 to D+26.0. That is too few to draw a trend through, so they are listed below, each with its weight.
In Senate races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at a quarter of its weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+19.4.
Every poll on file · 3
newest added first2 in the poll average · 1 shown, not counted · 2 primary polls on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●The Public Sentiment Institute/ Virginia ProjectGeneral · R sponsor · R partisan | 1,047 LV | D+26.0Mark Warner 55Bert Mizusawa 29 | 0.12 | Pollster post | ||
| ●The Public Sentiment InstituteGeneral · Senate | — LV | Mark Warner 51David Williams 33Mark Moran 3+5 other releases | 0.18 | Pollster post | ||
| Responsive ManagementGeneral | 806 A | Mark Warner 45Glenn Youngkin 38 | tests a different matchup | Poll release |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.