The Senate · Virginia
Projected turnout: 3,047,728 votes · model estimate, not counted votes.
Displayed shares include the model's Other-vote allowance and therefore add to 100%. Interval endpoints are the model's 10th and 90th percentiles, not a polling margin of error.
SURE 43 · thin evidence
How reliable is the evidence behind this race's number — not who wins. A safe seat with no polls can score low while its forecast is easy.
| Effective poll evidence | 0.56 |
|---|---|
| Race-specific error SD | 9.4 points |
| Historically calibrated 80% half-range | ±10.6 |
| Model treatment | Senate exact-production calibration |
| ✓ Fundamentals✓ Environment◐ Polls✓ Money (FEC)✓ Roster settled | |
SURE v3 — historically calibrated evidence-conditioned uncertainty · generated 2026-07-27. SURE rates the EVIDENCE behind a race's number, not the outcome: a safe seat with no polls can score low while its forecast is easy. Never a second win probability. It changes only idiosyncratic uncertainty, never the center. Senate marginal intervals are historically calibrated under the stated 0-120 day assumptions; House/Governor conditioning is provisional and widen-only until chamber-specific history passes the same gates.
County by county
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| County | Margin | Mark Warner | Kim Farington | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairfax | D+49.4 | 294,759 | 98,596 | 397,328 |
| Loudoun | D+33.7 | 102,966 | 50,642 | 155,160 |
| Virginia Beach | D+15.0 | 88,237 | 65,076 | 154,862 |
| Prince William | D+35.6 | 104,106 | 49,087 | 154,740 |
| Chesterfield | D+17.1 | 82,742 | 58,429 | 142,597 |
| Henrico | D+37.4 | 83,763 | 37,828 | 122,819 |
| Arlington | D+68.5 | 73,083 | 13,318 | 87,274 |
| Chesapeake | D+16.0 | 49,832 | 35,984 | 86,683 |
| Richmond | D+71.9 | 62,814 | 9,978 | 73,527 |
| Norfolk | D+52.7 | 44,173 | 13,474 | 58,229 |
| Stafford | D+12.9 | 31,609 | 24,342 | 56,516 |
| Alexandria | D+67.6 | 45,344 | 8,547 | 54,435 |
All 133 counties, largest projected vote pool first. Projected: the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Model estimate, not counted votes.
State of the race
Call the Map currently has Warner ahead of Farington by D+17.2, with a 96 in 100 chance to win. The seat is currently held by a Democrat. That result would keep the seat with Democrats. The current 2-poll average is D+19.4.
Warner entrenched.
- CTM forecast
- Solid D hold · 96 in 100
- Seat
- Dem.-held · projected hold
- Forecast range
- D+5.8 to D+28.6
- Polling
- D+19.4 · 2 polls
How the race is moving
96%D win probability today
Since the Jul 21 edition: margin 3.0 pts toward D · win probability +9 pts D
Tracked editions only. The pale segment marks the time remaining to Election Day; it is not fabricated future data. Hover, tap, or focus a chart and use the arrow keys for each edition's exact values.
How the margin was built
Four contributions, summing to the forecast D+17.2. Every model adjustment is published here — including candidate-quality shifts. Read how the whole margin is built →
TWIN neighbours
TWIN means Typology-Weighted Inference from Neighbors, Call the Map’s comparable-unit matching engine for any kind of race. It borrows poll residuals only—never centers, terrain, or outcomes. Similarity is demographic and behavioural, not geographic, and each contribution decays with similarity distance. Borrowed evidence always has lower precision than a race’s own polling.
Signals at a glance
- 2024 presidential
- D+5.8
- Ratings consensus
- Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Likely D · Inside Elections: Solid D
- Historical match quality
- 89/100 — How closely this race matches its eight historical analogues; not a win probability.
Recent polling
2 polls · weighted average D+19 · Full polling for this race →
What would change this forecast
Computed from the model's own mechanicsThis race is rated Solid D at D+14.9. Its win probability is separately 96%. These are the concrete, checkable events that would move that rating — computed by inverting the model's own poll blend and environment elasticity, not asserted. If one happens and the rating doesn't move, the model was wrong in public.
A single fresh nonpartisan poll at R+29 or better for the Republican would re-rate this Likely D.
The national environment moving from D+5.9 to R+3.3 would do it on its own.
Poll and environment levers reverse the current blend (K=6) and environment sensitivity (0.6); rating lines use the same published point-margin bands as every race hero, map, and table. Win probability remains a separate quantity. Method on the methodology page. These are illustrations; they do not change the published forecast.