Senate
Chance of R control>99 in 100
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 27 of 33 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 6.0 of 33 · 80% range 6–6
See all 33 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Shelby | 118,508 (62.6%) | 67,451 (35.6%) | D+27.0 | 189,368 |
| Davidson | 107,067 (63.6%) | 58,126 (34.6%) | D+29.1 | 168,221 |
| Knox | 51,673 (40.2%) | 74,692 (58.0%) | R+17.9 | 128,681 |
| Hamilton | 43,849 (43.3%) | 55,504 (54.9%) | R+11.5 | 101,174 |
| Rutherford | 33,512 (39.1%) | 50,586 (59.1%) | R+19.9 | 85,640 |
| Williamson | 28,327 (33.8%) | 54,070 (64.4%) | R+30.7 | 83,907 |
| Sumner | 16,403 (28.9%) | 39,277 (69.3%) | R+40.3 | 56,701 |
| Montgomery | 19,336 (40.8%) | 27,228 (57.4%) | R+16.6 | 47,418 |
| Wilson | 14,014 (29.7%) | 32,265 (68.5%) | R+38.7 | 47,127 |
| Sullivan | 9,777 (22.3%) | 33,248 (75.9%) | R+53.6 | 43,814 |
| Blount | 10,416 (25.9%) | 29,011 (72.3%) | R+46.3 | 40,150 |
| Washington | 10,685 (30.1%) | 24,192 (68.1%) | R+38.0 | 35,516 |
| Maury | 8,400 (27.8%) | 21,268 (70.4%) | R+42.6 | 30,212 |
| Bradley | 5,811 (20.3%) | 22,238 (77.9%) | R+57.5 | 28,563 |
| Sevier | 4,897 (19.2%) | 20,147 (79.0%) | R+59.8 | 25,503 |
| Madison | 9,481 (40.9%) | 13,281 (57.3%) | R+16.4 | 23,179 |
| Anderson | 6,785 (32.0%) | 14,031 (66.2%) | R+34.2 | 21,198 |
| Robertson | 4,969 (24.4%) | 15,006 (73.8%) | R+49.3 | 20,341 |
| Putnam | 5,301 (26.2%) | 14,599 (72.0%) | R+45.9 | 20,265 |
| Cumberland | 4,090 (20.4%) | 15,640 (77.8%) | R+57.5 | 20,092 |
| Loudon | 4,480 (23.3%) | 14,434 (74.9%) | R+51.7 | 19,261 |
| Greene | 3,048 (16.9%) | 14,662 (81.3%) | R+64.4 | 18,035 |
| Roane | 3,580 (22.5%) | 12,033 (75.7%) | R+53.2 | 15,899 |
| Tipton | 3,642 (23.5%) | 11,584 (74.7%) | R+51.2 | 15,505 |
| Hawkins | 2,341 (15.4%) | 12,619 (82.8%) | R+67.5 | 15,234 |
| Jefferson | 2,663 (17.8%) | 12,040 (80.4%) | R+62.6 | 14,973 |
| Hamblen | 3,029 (20.5%) | 11,496 (77.7%) | R+57.2 | 14,791 |
| Dickson | 3,491 (23.9%) | 10,864 (74.3%) | R+50.4 | 14,618 |
| Coffee | 3,219 (22.3%) | 10,982 (75.9%) | R+53.7 | 14,461 |
| Carter | 2,608 (18.1%) | 11,547 (80.1%) | R+62.0 | 14,414 |
| McMinn | 2,475 (17.7%) | 11,236 (80.5%) | R+62.7 | 13,962 |
| Fayette | 3,957 (28.8%) | 9,540 (69.4%) | R+40.6 | 13,744 |
| Monroe | 2,128 (16.4%) | 10,586 (81.8%) | R+65.3 | 12,947 |
| Gibson | 3,010 (24.0%) | 9,320 (74.2%) | R+50.3 | 12,556 |
| Cheatham | 3,218 (26.7%) | 8,595 (71.4%) | R+44.7 | 12,030 |
| Bedford | 2,443 (21.0%) | 8,999 (77.2%) | R+56.3 | 11,652 |
| Franklin | 2,676 (23.4%) | 8,560 (74.8%) | R+51.4 | 11,442 |
| Lawrence | 1,735 (15.3%) | 9,390 (82.9%) | R+67.6 | 11,329 |
| Warren | 2,165 (21.9%) | 7,526 (76.3%) | R+54.3 | 9,869 |
| Lincoln | 1,639 (17.5%) | 7,547 (80.7%) | R+63.2 | 9,354 |
| Marshall | 2,010 (21.7%) | 7,081 (76.5%) | R+54.8 | 9,258 |
| Cocke | 1,423 (15.7%) | 7,498 (82.5%) | R+66.9 | 9,085 |
| Campbell | 1,354 (15.0%) | 7,490 (83.2%) | R+68.1 | 9,006 |
| Henry | 1,939 (22.2%) | 6,648 (76.0%) | R+53.8 | 8,744 |
| Rhea | 1,363 (16.3%) | 6,864 (81.9%) | R+65.7 | 8,378 |
| Dyer | 1,594 (19.1%) | 6,605 (79.1%) | R+60.0 | 8,349 |
| Marion | 1,785 (22.1%) | 6,151 (76.1%) | R+54.0 | 8,081 |
| Claiborne | 1,166 (14.9%) | 6,543 (83.4%) | R+68.5 | 7,850 |
| Giles | 1,760 (22.5%) | 5,921 (75.7%) | R+53.2 | 7,822 |
| Weakley | 1,607 (20.7%) | 6,022 (77.5%) | R+56.8 | 7,769 |
| White | 1,240 (16.5%) | 6,125 (81.7%) | R+65.1 | 7,500 |
| Obion | 1,307 (17.5%) | 6,040 (80.7%) | R+63.3 | 7,482 |
| Hardin | 1,001 (14.3%) | 5,888 (83.9%) | R+69.7 | 7,015 |
| Henderson | 1,116 (16.0%) | 5,745 (82.2%) | R+66.2 | 6,987 |
| Carroll | 1,322 (19.2%) | 5,446 (79.0%) | R+59.8 | 6,892 |
| McNairy | 1,021 (15.6%) | 5,396 (82.6%) | R+67.0 | 6,535 |
| Grainger | 841 (13.0%) | 5,498 (85.2%) | R+72.1 | 6,455 |
| Overton | 1,144 (17.8%) | 5,160 (80.4%) | R+62.5 | 6,420 |
| Macon | 751 (12.5%) | 5,134 (85.7%) | R+73.1 | 5,993 |
| Hickman | 1,163 (19.5%) | 4,708 (78.7%) | R+59.3 | 5,979 |
| Fentress | 678 (12.0%) | 4,887 (86.2%) | R+74.3 | 5,667 |
| Scott | 550 (9.9%) | 4,921 (88.3%) | R+78.5 | 5,571 |
| Hardeman | 2,079 (38.1%) | 3,274 (60.1%) | R+21.9 | 5,451 |
| DeKalb | 1,010 (18.5%) | 4,342 (79.7%) | R+61.2 | 5,450 |
| Smith | 947 (17.5%) | 4,371 (80.7%) | R+63.2 | 5,415 |
| Polk | 801 (15.8%) | 4,170 (82.4%) | R+66.5 | 5,062 |
| Union | 714 (14.2%) | 4,223 (84.0%) | R+69.8 | 5,028 |
| Morgan | 623 (12.5%) | 4,253 (85.7%) | R+73.1 | 4,965 |
| Unicoi | 927 (18.7%) | 3,938 (79.5%) | R+60.8 | 4,954 |
| Lauderdale | 1,522 (31.7%) | 3,186 (66.5%) | R+34.7 | 4,794 |
| Humphreys | 1,050 (21.9%) | 3,657 (76.3%) | R+54.4 | 4,793 |
| Johnson | 710 (15.1%) | 3,904 (83.1%) | R+68.0 | 4,699 |
| Sequatchie | 761 (16.6%) | 3,733 (81.6%) | R+64.9 | 4,576 |
| Chester | 761 (17.3%) | 3,555 (80.9%) | R+63.6 | 4,395 |
| Benton | 780 (18.5%) | 3,355 (79.7%) | R+61.1 | 4,211 |
| Cannon | 672 (16.8%) | 3,247 (81.4%) | R+64.5 | 3,991 |
| Wayne | 446 (11.3%) | 3,445 (87.0%) | R+75.7 | 3,962 |
| Haywood | 1,942 (50.3%) | 1,847 (47.9%) | D+2.5 | 3,858 |
| Stewart | 686 (17.9%) | 3,085 (80.3%) | R+62.4 | 3,840 |
| Grundy | 559 (15.2%) | 3,045 (83.0%) | R+67.8 | 3,670 |
| Bledsoe | 527 (14.7%) | 2,999 (83.5%) | R+68.8 | 3,591 |
| Meigs | 572 (16.2%) | 2,901 (82.0%) | R+65.9 | 3,537 |
| Crockett | 706 (20.6%) | 2,666 (77.6%) | R+57.1 | 3,434 |
| Lewis | 585 (17.1%) | 2,770 (81.1%) | R+63.9 | 3,416 |
| Jackson | 617 (18.7%) | 2,616 (79.5%) | R+60.7 | 3,292 |
| Decatur | 485 (15.3%) | 2,628 (82.9%) | R+67.6 | 3,170 |
| Trousdale | 513 (20.8%) | 1,909 (77.4%) | R+56.6 | 2,466 |
| Houston | 461 (20.9%) | 1,709 (77.3%) | R+56.4 | 2,210 |
| Clay | 368 (16.9%) | 1,774 (81.3%) | R+64.4 | 2,181 |
| Perry | 330 (15.3%) | 1,786 (82.9%) | R+67.5 | 2,155 |
| Moore | 321 (15.1%) | 1,760 (83.1%) | R+67.9 | 2,119 |
| Van Buren | 310 (16.4%) | 1,550 (81.8%) | R+65.5 | 1,894 |
| Pickett | 286 (16.7%) | 1,396 (81.5%) | R+64.8 | 1,713 |
| Hancock | 196 (11.6%) | 1,461 (86.6%) | R+75.0 | 1,687 |
| Lake | 255 (22.7%) | 850 (75.6%) | R+52.9 | 1,125 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
Both chambers carry the Call the Map state legislature forecast — the same model the Chamber Board publishes.
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 27 of 33 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 6.0 of 33 · 80% range 6–6
See all 33 districts →Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 75 of 99 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 24.9 of 99 · 80% range 22–26
See all 99 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowRepublican trifecta
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | R | R |
| House | R | R |