Tennessee

SenateR+26.4

U.S. House · projectedD 0 · R 9

GovernorR+13.9

2024 presidentR+29.7

Forecast as of October 28, 2026. U.S. Senate: Bill Hagerty ahead of Marquita Bradshaw by R+26.4, with a >99 in 100 chance to win. Governor: Marsha Blackburn ahead of Jerri Green by R+13.9, with a 97 in 100 chance to win. U.S. House: Democrats are favored in 0 of the state's 9 districts and Republicans in 9.

Closest races

TN-09FlipBrent Taylor vs. Justin PearsonLikely RR+9.7 TN-05Charlie Hatcher vs. Chaz MolderLikely RR+10.9 GovernorJerri Green vs. Marsha BlackburnLikely RR+13.9 TN-08David Kustoff vs. Heidi KuhnSolid RR+15.1

Projected delegation: D 0 · R 9

TN-01Diana Harshbarger vs. Kristi BurkeSolid RR+47.8 TN-02Tim Burchett vs. Michaela BarnettSolid RR+27.2 TN-03Chuck Fleischmann vs. Anna GolladaySolid RR+28.4 TN-04Scott DesJarlais vs. Victoria BroderickSolid RR+18.2 TN-05Charlie Hatcher vs. Chaz MolderLikely RR+10.9 TN-06Johnny Garrett vs. Mike CroleySolid RR+17.6 TN-07Matt Van Epps vs. Darden CopelandSolid RR+17.0 TN-08David Kustoff vs. Heidi KuhnSolid RR+15.1 TN-09FlipBrent Taylor vs. Justin PearsonLikely RR+9.7