Tennessee Governor polls
Jerri Green (D) vs Marsha Blackburn (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 23, 2026R+12.6today's poll average of 5 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- not counted · shown, never moves the line
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
- left of the break: 1 earlier poll, not on the time axis
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | R+12.6 | R+12.6 |
| Oct 16–Oct 22, 2026 | R+12.6 | R+12.6 |
| Sep 12–Oct 15, 2026 | R+13.4 | R+13.4 to R+12.6 |
| Aug 26–Sep 11, 2026 | R+17.3 | R+17.3 to R+13.5 |
| Apr 27–Aug 25, 2026 | R+24.0 | R+24.0 to R+17.3 |
The forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+13.2.
Every poll on file · 7
newest first5 in the poll average · 2 shown, not counted · 15 primary polls on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Spry StrategiesGeneral | 635 LV | R+11.5Marsha Blackburn 43.5Jerri Green 32David Hatley 11.9Don't know 10.2Lauren Pinkston 1.4Someone else 0.9 | 3d ago | 0.63 | Poll release | |
| ●TargetSmartGeneral · Governor · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 600 LV | R+9.0Marsha Blackburn 45Jerri Green 36David Hatley 19Lauren Pinkston 2+1 other release | 0.42 | Poll release | ||
| ●Targoz Market ResearchGeneral | 601 LV | R+21.0Marsha Blackburn 55Jerri Green 34Generic Candidate 7Don't know 4+1 other release | 0.34 | Poll release | ||
| ●Targoz Market ResearchGeneral | 1,149 RV | R+13.0Marsha Blackburn 46Jerri Green 33 | 0.47 | Poll document | ||
| ●Targoz Market ResearchGeneral | 1,157 RV | R+24.0Marsha Blackburn 51Jerri Green 27Don't know/Someone else 22 | 0.12 | Poll document | ||
| Quantus InsightsGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 600 RV | R+21.0Marsha Blackburn 49Jerri Green 28Don't know 17Would not vote 7+1 other release | another question of this poll is counted | Poll document | ||
| Targoz Market ResearchGeneral | 1,173 RV | R+19.0Marsha Blackburn 51Generic Democrat 32Don't know 17+1 other release | tests a different matchup | Poll document |
Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.