Call
the Map
FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
← governor3 November 2026 · 51 days out

Tennessee · Governor

Open this race on The Map ↗

Marsha Blackburn is heavily favored to keep the Tennessee governorship in Republican hands. Predicted margin: R+27.9.

Jerri Green (D)1 in 1000.7%35.4high 40.3 · low 30.4
Marsha Blackburn (R)99 in 10099.3%62.7high 67.6 · low 57.7

high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations

About this field

Lee is term-limited. Blackburn is the dominant leader in the certified Republican field; the five-way Democratic primary has no verified clear leader.

Forecast share averages the simulated vote. Win chance counts how often a candidate wins. A wider range of outcomes can give a candidate a higher win chance despite a lower average share.

Solid R80% range · margin points R+38.0 to R+17.7Open seat

Forecast history

Steady0.0 pts · Sep 11 → Sep 13
Aug 1Nov 3 · Election Day

Latest reading · Sep 13 · first published Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points R+38.0 to R+17.7. Methodology

Hover the line, tap it, or use the arrow keys to inspect its history.

About this series

This comparable series begins on September 9, 2026, when the model version changed to CTMM 2.2. Earlier readings remain in the archive and are not joined as voter movement; faded points before September 9, 2026 are reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those days.

Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.

The polls

Ledger weighted average R+22.7Used by the forecast: 3 polls (60-day half-life) · measured R+21.8 · after the fitted poll-error shift R+24.33 recorded polls · 3 eligible for the aggregate · 3 with positive weight

FieldworkAddedPollsterResultSample
from 2026-08-15Targoz Market Research ↗Beacon CenterR+21.0D 34% · R 55%601 LV
from 2026-04-20Targoz Market Research ↗R+24.0D 27% · R 51%1,157 RV
from 2025-08-05Quantus Insights ↗R+21.0D 28% · R 49%600 RV
Explore all 3 polls for this race

How the margin was built

Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.

Toward D+11.4
Toward R−39.3
Forecast marginR+27.9

The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded.

All calculations & sources

How this state voted, 2024 −29.720 points

The state's two-party presidential margin in 2024, from our own county sums — the same measurement the model's statewide terrain center is built from. Every pull below is measured from here, not from EVEN, which is why a landslide seat's listed pulls are small numbers and still land where the forecast does.

  • 2024 presidential result for this state, two-party, from Call the Map's own county sums.
  • Same source as Act I's 2024-president reference mark, so the origin lands on it.

Fitted model, above the terrain shown +10.305 points

What the fitted model adds on top of the starting terrain above — incumbency, past results, campaign finance and the other fitted terms — measured from that terrain rather than from EVEN. It is a comparison with the starting point already shown, not a separate input. The source detail lists the variables the fit uses.

  • Fitted baseline -19.415 minus starting point -29.720 = 10.305 points.
  • Fitted intercept: -6.136 points.
  • 2010 White population share used by the frozen historical fit: observed input 77.671. -0.503 × ((77.671 − 77.922) / 12.864) = 0.010 points.
  • gov_midterm_wh: observed input -1.000. -0.987 × ((-1.000 − 0.336) / 0.739) = 1.785 points.
  • 2024 presidential lean relative to the national result: observed input -28.621. 4.163 × ((-28.621 − -4.415) / 20.258) = -4.974 points.
  • Previous governor election margin: observed input -31.990. 1.755 × ((-31.990 − -3.131) / 19.227) = -2.635 points.
  • gov_inc_running_signed: observed input 0.000. 2.531 × ((0.000 − -0.120) / 0.708) = 0.428 points.
  • gov_inc_tenure_signed: observed input 0.000. 3.340 × ((0.000 − -0.143) / 0.902) = 0.529 points.
  • The displayed arithmetic is rounded; the fitted terms use full precision. The intercept plus these five terms gives the non-ratings baseline.
  • No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.
  • Certified 2024 presidential baseline: state R+30.1, national R+1.5; subtracting the national margin gives relative lean −28.6. Source: FEC compilation of certified state results.

National environment +1.143 points

The contribution to this race’s margin, not the national polling margin itself. The race’s loading, reference level and polling blend determine how much of the national climate reaches its final forecast.

  • The national environment in this edition is D+7.6. This row is its contribution to the race’s prior, not a claim that the country is D+1.1.
  • The environment enters once, through the fitted governor elasticity: 0.4216 × (7.600 − 1.882, the environment the governor priors themselves imply) = +2.4; the producer rounds the contribution to +2.4.
  • Polls receive 70.2% of the blend. They attenuate this contribution to +0.7 in the final center; the offset is included in the polling row.
  • The elasticity is fitted on the pooled panel of contested governor races (2010–2024) with cycle-clustered standard errors; it is a measured response to the national environment, not a judgment floor.

This race’s polls −4.806 points

What this race’s own recent polling adds beyond its prior, after each poll is weighted for recency, sample size and pollster quality.

  • 3 poll(s) / 2 pollster(s)
  • The admitted polling average is R+22.7, after pollster, sample and recency adjustments.
  • Polling contribution = 70.2% × (-22.742 − prior -18.320) = −4.8 points after component rounding.
  • The prior includes national environment and expert ratings. The blend is R+21.4 before the separately disclosed candidate and formula adjustments.

Historical error calibration −3.063 points

A prior-election residual correction, when an admitted model publishes one.

  • No separate historical residual correction is published in this governor edition.

Structural safeguards −1.725 points

Bounded corrections that keep the model consistent with structural facts.

  • No Senate-style structural calibration is used in the governor model.

The components this edition publishes for this race, in points. “Other factors” closes the sum to the two-party structural lean exactly. Here the structural lean IS the published margin, so the walk sums to the projection exactly; nothing is left over.

Named factorContribution
FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race.−19.41
This race's pollsAdmitted head-to-head polls of this race, recency- and quality-weighted.−4.81
Historical calibrationThe House lane's calibration against certified past cycles.−3.06
Structural terrain safeguardA bounded pull toward presidential terrain in heavily partisan states.−1.72
National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin.+1.14
Other factors0.00

Race context

Forecast votes cast
1,891,891
Forecast turnout
35.2% of the voting-eligible population
2024 presidential margin
R+30.1

Statewide, 35.9% of the voting-eligible population is projected to cast a ballot; the lower figure above is the share projected to vote in this race.

Population profile Select a measure for its source and denominator

White alone · 74.9%5,182,736 of 6,923,772 · Residents2022 Census · matched race geography
Demographic source and limits

U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗

Coverage

4 quotes

All coverage and full posts on the Wire →