One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Polk | 113,202 (59.6%) | 72,410 (38.2%) | D+21.5 | 189,787 |
| Linn | 53,581 (59.0%) | 35,294 (38.8%) | D+20.1 | 90,874 |
| Scott | 35,840 (53.8%) | 29,339 (44.0%) | D+9.8 | 66,645 |
| Johnson | 46,418 (72.6%) | 16,092 (25.2%) | D+47.4 | 63,916 |
| Black Hawk | 26,275 (56.5%) | 19,229 (41.3%) | D+15.1 | 46,528 |
| Dallas | 23,859 (51.3%) | 21,631 (46.5%) | D+4.8 | 46,513 |
| Dubuque | 19,784 (50.7%) | 18,394 (47.1%) | D+3.6 | 39,037 |
| Story | 22,145 (60.6%) | 13,588 (37.2%) | D+23.4 | 36,537 |
| Pottawattamie | 14,437 (43.8%) | 17,818 (54.0%) | R+10.3 | 32,981 |
| Woodbury | 13,980 (44.1%) | 17,014 (53.7%) | R+9.6 | 31,691 |
| Warren | 10,600 (43.7%) | 13,122 (54.1%) | R+10.4 | 24,256 |
| Clinton | 8,260 (46.7%) | 9,035 (51.1%) | R+4.4 | 17,684 |
| Cerro Gordo | 8,345 (49.0%) | 8,317 (48.8%) | D+0.2 | 17,037 |
| Jasper | 6,148 (41.1%) | 8,486 (56.7%) | R+15.6 | 14,963 |
| Muscatine | 7,085 (48.4%) | 7,219 (49.4%) | R+0.9 | 14,626 |
| Marion | 5,031 (34.8%) | 9,125 (63.0%) | R+28.3 | 14,474 |
| Des Moines | 6,739 (47.8%) | 7,059 (50.0%) | R+2.3 | 14,108 |
| Sioux | 2,291 (16.3%) | 11,422 (81.5%) | R+65.1 | 14,021 |
| Marshall | 6,151 (48.1%) | 6,354 (49.7%) | R+1.6 | 12,786 |
| Webster | 4,915 (39.6%) | 7,218 (58.2%) | R+18.6 | 12,406 |
| Lee | 5,036 (42.0%) | 6,696 (55.8%) | R+13.8 | 11,996 |
| Boone | 5,033 (44.2%) | 6,112 (53.6%) | R+9.5 | 11,396 |
| Wapello | 4,310 (39.8%) | 6,273 (58.0%) | R+18.1 | 10,821 |
| Bremer | 4,749 (43.9%) | 5,823 (53.9%) | R+9.9 | 10,810 |
| Benton | 4,077 (37.9%) | 6,433 (59.9%) | R+21.9 | 10,746 |
| Plymouth | 2,712 (26.2%) | 7,405 (71.6%) | R+45.4 | 10,345 |
| Winneshiek | 4,398 (49.7%) | 4,264 (48.1%) | D+1.5 | 8,857 |
| Washington | 3,585 (41.8%) | 4,804 (56.0%) | R+14.2 | 8,578 |
| Dickinson | 2,886 (34.7%) | 5,242 (63.1%) | R+28.4 | 8,311 |
| Carroll | 2,698 (32.7%) | 5,378 (65.1%) | R+32.5 | 8,258 |
| Jones | 3,351 (41.2%) | 4,601 (56.6%) | R+15.4 | 8,131 |
| Mahaska | 2,211 (27.3%) | 5,713 (70.5%) | R+43.2 | 8,102 |
| Jackson | 3,096 (38.7%) | 4,735 (59.1%) | R+20.5 | 8,007 |
| Buchanan | 3,288 (41.3%) | 4,493 (56.5%) | R+15.1 | 7,956 |
| Cedar | 3,434 (43.5%) | 4,282 (54.3%) | R+10.7 | 7,890 |
| Delaware | 2,554 (34.0%) | 4,790 (63.8%) | R+29.8 | 7,509 |
| Madison | 2,556 (34.4%) | 4,704 (63.4%) | R+28.9 | 7,423 |
| Poweshiek | 3,372 (45.5%) | 3,870 (52.3%) | R+6.7 | 7,405 |
| Fayette | 2,939 (40.3%) | 4,191 (57.5%) | R+17.2 | 7,290 |
| Iowa | 2,815 (39.4%) | 4,170 (58.4%) | R+19.0 | 7,142 |
| Henry | 2,526 (35.5%) | 4,428 (62.3%) | R+26.8 | 7,110 |
| Clayton | 2,599 (37.3%) | 4,215 (60.5%) | R+23.2 | 6,967 |
| Tama | 2,695 (42.2%) | 3,547 (55.6%) | R+13.3 | 6,382 |
| Clay | 2,025 (32.0%) | 4,159 (65.8%) | R+33.8 | 6,323 |
| Hardin | 2,225 (35.5%) | 3,900 (62.3%) | R+26.8 | 6,263 |
| Kossuth | 1,974 (31.7%) | 4,109 (66.1%) | R+34.3 | 6,220 |
| Jefferson | 3,177 (51.4%) | 2,863 (46.4%) | D+5.1 | 6,176 |
| Mills | 2,020 (33.1%) | 3,953 (64.7%) | R+31.7 | 6,107 |
| Butler | 1,904 (31.9%) | 3,926 (65.9%) | R+33.9 | 5,961 |
| Harrison | 1,906 (32.3%) | 3,859 (65.5%) | R+33.1 | 5,895 |
| Floyd | 2,390 (42.2%) | 3,148 (55.6%) | R+13.4 | 5,663 |
| Hamilton | 2,158 (38.4%) | 3,342 (59.4%) | R+21.1 | 5,624 |
| Buena Vista | 2,165 (38.8%) | 3,294 (59.0%) | R+20.2 | 5,582 |
| O'Brien | 1,228 (22.0%) | 4,219 (75.7%) | R+53.7 | 5,570 |
| Allamakee | 2,018 (37.2%) | 3,286 (60.6%) | R+23.4 | 5,423 |
| Page | 1,642 (30.3%) | 3,658 (67.5%) | R+37.2 | 5,419 |
| Cass | 1,744 (32.6%) | 3,481 (65.2%) | R+32.5 | 5,343 |
| Grundy | 1,733 (32.7%) | 3,446 (65.1%) | R+32.3 | 5,296 |
| Lyon | 840 (16.2%) | 4,232 (81.6%) | R+65.4 | 5,186 |
| Crawford | 1,598 (33.0%) | 3,141 (64.8%) | R+31.8 | 4,846 |
| Guthrie | 1,635 (33.8%) | 3,096 (64.0%) | R+30.2 | 4,837 |
| Shelby | 1,509 (31.3%) | 3,202 (66.5%) | R+35.1 | 4,817 |
| Appanoose | 1,490 (31.0%) | 3,206 (66.8%) | R+35.7 | 4,802 |
| Chickasaw | 1,665 (36.0%) | 2,860 (61.8%) | R+25.8 | 4,627 |
| Cherokee | 1,430 (31.6%) | 2,993 (66.2%) | R+34.6 | 4,522 |
| Union | 1,599 (35.9%) | 2,756 (61.9%) | R+26.0 | 4,453 |
| Hancock | 1,294 (29.4%) | 3,015 (68.4%) | R+39.1 | 4,406 |
| Mitchell | 1,625 (38.0%) | 2,556 (59.8%) | R+21.8 | 4,275 |
| Wright | 1,469 (34.7%) | 2,675 (63.1%) | R+28.5 | 4,237 |
| Winnebago | 1,616 (38.7%) | 2,471 (59.1%) | R+20.5 | 4,179 |
| Sac | 1,091 (27.0%) | 2,866 (70.8%) | R+43.9 | 4,046 |
| Keokuk | 1,085 (28.4%) | 2,650 (69.4%) | R+41.0 | 3,819 |
| Louisa | 1,322 (34.7%) | 2,408 (63.1%) | R+28.5 | 3,814 |
| Calhoun | 1,139 (30.1%) | 2,560 (67.7%) | R+37.6 | 3,782 |
| Humboldt | 1,084 (28.8%) | 2,596 (69.0%) | R+40.2 | 3,763 |
| Montgomery | 1,217 (32.4%) | 2,458 (65.4%) | R+33.0 | 3,758 |
| Palo Alto | 1,203 (32.6%) | 2,411 (65.3%) | R+32.7 | 3,695 |
| Franklin | 1,229 (33.9%) | 2,319 (63.9%) | R+30.1 | 3,628 |
| Greene | 1,358 (37.5%) | 2,182 (60.3%) | R+22.8 | 3,620 |
| Howard | 1,374 (38.3%) | 2,139 (59.5%) | R+21.3 | 3,592 |
| Emmet | 1,182 (33.3%) | 2,294 (64.5%) | R+31.3 | 3,554 |
| Lucas | 1,020 (29.6%) | 2,349 (68.2%) | R+38.6 | 3,445 |
| Monona | 1,089 (31.8%) | 2,264 (66.0%) | R+34.2 | 3,428 |
| Clarke | 1,109 (33.5%) | 2,129 (64.3%) | R+30.8 | 3,311 |
| Worth | 1,243 (39.1%) | 1,864 (58.7%) | R+19.6 | 3,177 |
| Monroe | 863 (28.0%) | 2,148 (69.8%) | R+41.7 | 3,079 |
| Adair | 930 (30.8%) | 2,022 (67.0%) | R+36.2 | 3,018 |
| Davis | 770 (26.3%) | 2,098 (71.5%) | R+45.3 | 2,933 |
| Fremont | 853 (30.3%) | 1,896 (67.4%) | R+37.1 | 2,811 |
| Decatur | 868 (31.4%) | 1,839 (66.4%) | R+35.1 | 2,768 |
| Ida | 692 (25.6%) | 1,953 (72.2%) | R+46.6 | 2,705 |
| Van Buren | 664 (24.7%) | 1,967 (73.1%) | R+48.4 | 2,690 |
| Pocahontas | 692 (26.1%) | 1,903 (71.7%) | R+45.6 | 2,653 |
| Audubon | 814 (33.8%) | 1,538 (64.0%) | R+30.1 | 2,405 |
| Osceola | 457 (19.1%) | 1,881 (78.7%) | R+59.6 | 2,391 |
| Wayne | 573 (24.7%) | 1,692 (73.1%) | R+48.3 | 2,316 |
| Taylor | 561 (24.5%) | 1,675 (73.3%) | R+48.7 | 2,286 |
| Ringgold | 555 (27.9%) | 1,393 (69.9%) | R+42.1 | 1,992 |
| Adams | 471 (29.8%) | 1,077 (68.0%) | R+38.2 | 1,583 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
House carries the Call the Map state legislature forecast; Senate carries no published control probability in this edition.
The district-by-district results for this chamber don't yet roll up into a chamber-wide total the model will stand behind, so no control probability is published. The seat estimate below is still the model's.
Expected Democratic seats 15.0 of 50 · 80% range 10–20
See all 50 districts →Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 67 of 100 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 34.1 of 100 · 80% range 27–37
See all 100 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowRepublican trifectaProjectedSplit control
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | R | R |
| House | R | R |