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FORECAST10 DAYS OUT
Race polling · GOV-IA

Iowa Governor polls

Rob Sand (D) vs Zach Lahn (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageD+7.5the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls2626 on file · 20 in the poll average · 6 not counted
Latest field dateOct 19Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-19 (5 days old)
EditionOct 23the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 23, 2026D+7.5today's poll average of 20 polls

R+5EVEND+5D+10D+15Jul ’26AugSepOct
  • poll in the average · area is its weight
  • not counted · shown, never moves the line
  • trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
  • left of the break: 1 earlier poll, not on the time axis

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table
DaysAverage as it stoodTrend line
Oct 23, 2026D+7.5D+7.5
Oct 19–Oct 22, 2026D+7.5D+7.5
Oct 13–Oct 18, 2026D+7.6D+7.6 to D+7.5
Oct 12, 2026D+7.3D+7.6
Oct 11, 2026D+7.8D+7.6
Oct 6–Oct 10, 2026D+8.1D+7.6
Oct 5, 2026D+8.3D+7.6
Oct 4, 2026D+8.2D+7.7
Oct 1–Oct 3, 2026D+7.8D+8.0 to D+7.8
Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026D+7.4D+8.1 to D+8.0
Sep 20–Sep 27, 2026D+7.0D+7.3 to D+8.0
Sep 16–Sep 19, 2026D+5.9D+6.8 to D+7.2
Sep 11–Sep 15, 2026D+6.4D+6.4 to D+6.7
Sep 8–Sep 10, 2026D+6.7D+6.3
Sep 1–Sep 7, 2026D+4.7D+5.8 to D+6.3
Aug 23–Aug 31, 2026D+5.1D+5.0 to D+5.6
Aug 4–Aug 22, 2026D+5.5D+5.5 to D+5.0
Jun 27–Aug 3, 2026D+5.4D+5.4 to D+5.5
Jun 19–Jun 26, 2026D+4.3D+5.0 to D+5.4

The forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+7.8.

Every poll on file · 26

newest first

20 in the poll average · 6 shown, not counted

PollsterFieldedSampleResultAddedWeightSource
●co/efficientGeneral · Governor · REP sponsor · REP partisan863 LVD+4.0Rob Sand 49Zach Lahn 453d ago0.76Poll release
New RiverGeneral · Governor602 LVD+11.0Rob Sand 54Zach Lahn 431d agocounted once · listed twicePoll release
●New River Strategies/GS Strategy GroupGeneral602 LVD+11.0Rob Sand 54Zach Lahn 43Don't know 33d ago0.59Poll release
●National Public AffairsGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan678 LVD+5.0Rob Sand 50Zach Lahn 45Don't know 53d ago0.62Poll document
●YouGovGeneral2,244 LVD+6.0Rob Sand 50Zach Lahn 44Don't know 6Would not vote 0Someone else 00.88Poll document
●Marist UniversityGeneral · Governor1,100 LVD+7.0Rob Sand 52Zach Lahn 45+1 other release0.79Poll release
●Emerson CollegeGeneral650 LVD+3.7Rob Sand 49Zach Lahn 45.3Don't know 5.70.57Poll release
●CNN/SSRSGeneral801 LVD+9.0Rob Sand 51Zach Lahn 42Neither 5Someone else 2Don't know 00.63News coverage
●Suffolk UniversityGeneral500 LVD+12.0Rob Sand 54.8Zach Lahn 42.8Don't know 2.40.49Poll release
●The New York Times/Siena CollegeGeneral606 LVD+11.2Rob Sand 52.03Zach Lahn 40.85Don't know 7.120.52News coverage
●Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchGeneral1,008 LVD+9.0Rob Sand 53Zach Lahn 44Don't know 2Someone else 1Would not vote 0+1 other release0.65News coverage
●Marist UniversityGeneral1,050 RVD+12.0Rob Sand 54Zach Lahn 42Don't know 3Someone else 10.60Poll release

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.