Iowa · Governor
Open this race on The Map ↗Rob Sand is narrowly favored to flip the Iowa governorship. Predicted margin: D+5.1.
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
About this field
Reynolds retiring; Trump-backed Feenstra lost the primary. Sabato moved it Lean R→Toss-up.
Forecast share averages the simulated vote. Win chance counts how often a candidate wins. A wider range of outcomes can give a candidate a higher win chance despite a lower average share.
Forecast history
Latest reading · Sep 13 · first published Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points R+3.6 to D+13.9. Methodology
Hover the line, tap it, or use the arrow keys to inspect its history.
About this series
This comparable series begins on September 9, 2026, when the model version changed to CTMM 2.2. Earlier readings remain in the archive and are not joined as voter movement; faded points before September 9, 2026 are reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those days.
Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.
The polls
Ledger weighted average D+5.5Used by the forecast: 8 polls (60-day half-life) · measured D+6.6 · after the fitted poll-error shift D+4.19 recorded polls · 8 eligible for the aggregate · 8 with positive weight
| Fieldwork | Added | Pollster | Result | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-09-03 | 1h ago | YouGov ↗ | D+11.0D 51% · R 40% | 2,128 LV |
| from 2026-08-31 | Emerson College ↗Nexstar | D+3.1D 48.64% · R 45.52% | 750 LV | |
| from 2026-08-27 | Wedgewood Polls ↗ | D+5.0D 51% · R 46% | 600 LV | |
| from 2026-08-20 | Suffolk University ↗ | D+4.2D 47.8% · R 43.6% | 500 LV | |
| from 2026-08-02 | Emerson College ↗Nexstar | D+5.7D 48.4% · R 42.69% | 712 LV | |
| from 2026-06-23 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗Fox News | D+9.0D 53% · R 44% | 1,003 RV | |
| from 2026-06-15 | The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | D+1.6D 48.19% · R 46.54% | 600 LV | |
| from 2026-06-16 | Cygnal Political ↗ | D+4.3D 47.7% · R 43.4% | 600 LV |
Explore poll adjustments
Ledger weighted average D+5.5
- Published result
- D+11.0
- Model read
- D+9.8
- Model weight
- 1.035
- Fieldwork
- 3 Sep–8 Sep
- Sample
- 2,128 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Pollster quality
- 0.648
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.18 points; pollster −1.01 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 13 SepOpen poll source- Published result
- D+3.1
- Model read
- D+2.6
- Model weight
- 0.524
- Fieldwork
- 31 Aug–1 Sep
- Sample
- 750 LV
- Sponsor
- Nexstar
- Pollster quality
- 0.697
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.18 points; pollster −0.37 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 5 SepOpen poll source- Published result
- D+5.0
- Model read
- D+4.8
- Model weight
- 0.335
- Fieldwork
- 27 Aug–29 Aug
- Sample
- 600 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Pollster quality
- 0.550
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.18 points; pollster 0.00 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 30 AugOpen poll source- Published result
- D+4.2
- Model read
- D+3.4
- Model weight
- 0.331
- Fieldwork
- 20 Aug–23 Aug
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Pollster quality
- 0.725
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.18 points; pollster −0.61 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 26 AugOpen poll source- Published result
- D+5.7
- Model read
- D+5.2
- Model weight
- 0.203
- Fieldwork
- 2 Aug–4 Aug
- Sample
- 712 LV
- Sponsor
- Nexstar
- Pollster quality
- 0.697
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.18 points; pollster −0.37 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 19 AugOpen poll source- Published result
- D+9.0
- Model read
- D+6.2
- Model weight
- 0.065
- Fieldwork
- 23 Jun–27 Jun
- Sample
- 1,003 RV
- Sponsor
- Fox News
- Pollster quality
- 0.664
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.18 points; pollster −1.48 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 19 AugOpen poll source- Published result
- D+1.6
- Model read
- D+0.3
- Model weight
- 0.055
- Fieldwork
- 15 Jun–27 Jun
- Sample
- 600 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Pollster quality
- 0.722
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.18 points; pollster −1.22 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 17 AugOpen poll source- Published result
- D+4.3
- Model read
- D+4.2
- Model weight
- 0.044
- Fieldwork
- 16 Jun–19 Jun
- Sample
- 600 LV
- Sponsor
- Republican sponsor · organization not listed
- Pollster quality
- 0.746
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor +1.84 points; pollster −1.92 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 17 AugOpen poll sourceHow the margin was built
Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.
The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded.
All calculations & sources
How this state voted, 2024 −13.260 points
The state's two-party presidential margin in 2024, from our own county sums — the same measurement the model's statewide terrain center is built from. Every pull below is measured from here, not from EVEN, which is why a landslide seat's listed pulls are small numbers and still land where the forecast does.
- 2024 presidential result for this state, two-party, from Call the Map's own county sums.
- Same source as Act I's 2024-president reference mark, so the origin lands on it.
Fitted model, above the terrain shown +14.447 points
What the fitted model adds on top of the starting terrain above — incumbency, past results, campaign finance and the other fitted terms — measured from that terrain rather than from EVEN. It is a comparison with the starting point already shown, not a separate input. The source detail lists the variables the fit uses.
- Fitted baseline 1.187 minus starting point -13.260 = 14.447 points.
- Fitted intercept: -6.136 points.
- 2010 White population share used by the frozen historical fit: observed input 91.107. -0.503 × ((91.107 − 77.922) / 12.864) = -0.515 points.
- gov_midterm_wh: observed input -1.000. -0.987 × ((-1.000 − 0.336) / 0.739) = 1.785 points.
- 2024 presidential lean relative to the national result: observed input -11.945. 4.163 × ((-11.945 − -4.415) / 20.258) = -1.548 points.
- Previous governor election margin: observed input -18.520. 1.755 × ((-18.520 − -3.131) / 19.227) = -1.405 points.
- gov_inc_running_signed: observed input 0.000. 2.531 × ((0.000 − -0.120) / 0.708) = 0.428 points.
- gov_inc_tenure_signed: observed input 0.000. 3.340 × ((0.000 − -0.143) / 0.902) = 0.529 points.
- The displayed arithmetic is rounded; the fitted terms use full precision. The intercept plus these five terms gives the non-ratings baseline.
- No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.
- Certified 2024 presidential baseline: state R+13.4, national R+1.5; subtracting the national margin gives relative lean −11.9. Source: FEC compilation of certified state results.
This race’s polls +1.439 points
What this race’s own recent polling adds beyond its prior, after each poll is weighted for recency, sample size and pollster quality.
- 8 poll(s) / 7 pollster(s)
- The admitted polling average is D+5.5, after pollster, sample and recency adjustments.
- Polling contribution = 86.0% × (5.526 − prior -1.000) = +1.4 points after component rounding.
- The prior includes national environment and expert ratings. The blend is D+4.6 before the separately disclosed candidate and formula adjustments.
Historical error calibration +1.347 points
A prior-election residual correction, when an admitted model publishes one.
- No separate historical residual correction is published in this governor edition.
National environment +1.143 points
The contribution to this race’s margin, not the national polling margin itself. The race’s loading, reference level and polling blend determine how much of the national climate reaches its final forecast.
- The national environment in this edition is D+7.6. This row is its contribution to the race’s prior, not a claim that the country is D+1.1.
- The environment enters once, through the fitted governor elasticity: 0.4216 × (7.600 − 1.882, the environment the governor priors themselves imply) = +2.4; the producer rounds the contribution to +2.4.
- Polls receive 86.0% of the blend. They attenuate this contribution to +0.3 in the final center; the offset is included in the polling row.
- The elasticity is fitted on the pooled panel of contested governor races (2010–2024) with cycle-clustered standard errors; it is a measured response to the national environment, not a judgment floor.
The components this edition publishes for this race, in points. “Other factors” closes the sum to the two-party structural lean exactly. Here the structural lean IS the published margin, so the walk sums to the projection exactly; nothing is left over.
| Named factor | Contribution |
|---|---|
| This race's pollsAdmitted head-to-head polls of this race, recency- and quality-weighted. | +1.44 |
| Historical calibrationThe House lane's calibration against certified past cycles. | +1.35 |
| FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race. | +1.19 |
| National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin. | +1.14 |
| Other factors | 0.00 |
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 · Governor ↗ | R+19.0 | 1,221,864 |
| 2018 · Governor ↗ | R+2.8 | 1,327,638 |
| 2014 · Governor ↗ | R+22.6 | 1,129,057 |
| 2010 · Governor ↗ | R+10.0 | 1,122,013 |
Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 1,213,550
- Forecast turnout
- 51.6% of the voting-eligible population
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+13.4
Statewide, 52.5% of the voting-eligible population is projected to cast a ballot; the lower figure above is the share projected to vote in this race.
Population profile Select a measure for its source and denominator
U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗
Coverage
2 stories · 2 quotes
- DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: Iowa Governor
Our polling average for the 2026 Iowa Governor race is now live. and Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by 5.9 percentage points.
Iowa last elected a Democratic governor in 2006.
We'll continue updating this average as new polling becomes available. ↗
Decision Desk HQ · Official · 2d ago
curated results desk · recent Bluesky post · named-race match · election-topic match - Note on new YouGov poll in Iowa: Dem gov cand Rob Sand, who has spoken out against unlawful deportations, is doing much better against his opponent (+10) than Josh Turek (+4), who has taken the centrist/Third Way/Searchlight talking points on immigration d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/io... ↗
G Elliott Morris · Analysis · 2d ago
curated forecaster · recent Bluesky post · named-race match · election-topic match - Rob Sand unveils affordability plan targeting healthcare, housing, and energy costs ↗
Iowa Starting Line · Aug 31
- Should Kamala Harris run for president again? ‘Nope,’ says Iowa Democrat ↗
The Guardian US politics · Aug 26