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FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
Race polling · SEN-IA

Iowa Senate polls

Josh Turek (D) vs Ashley Hinson (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Adjusted aggregateD+0.9same figure as the race page
Polls1616 recorded polls · 16 eligible for the aggregate · 16 with positive weight
Latest field dateSep 10Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-10 (3 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition

The polls the model reads

hover, tap or Tab to any poll
last 30 daysR+10R+5EVEND+5D+10Mar ’26MayJulSep
  • counted poll · area is its model weight
  • weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
  • poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
  • published average
  • 30 days before this edition

Every poll on file · 19

newest first

17 in the aggregate · 2 shown, not counted

PollsterFieldedAddedSampleResultWeightSource
Rasmussen ReportsGeneral · R sponsor · R partisan1,031 LVJosh Turek 45Ashley Hinson 401h ago0.775Poll release
YouGovGeneral2,127 LVJosh Turek 45Ashley Hinson 43Don't know 10Would not vote 1Someone else 1+4 other releases2d ago1.034Poll document
Emerson CollegeGeneral · Senate750 LVAshley Hinson 50Josh Turek 45+1 other release0.524Poll release
Global Strategy GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan800 LVJosh Turek 46Ashley Hinson 42Don't know 6Thomas Laehn 65d ago0.335News coverage
Wedgewood PollsGeneral600 LVAshley Hinson 50Josh Turek 48Don't know 20.335Poll document
Abacus DataGeneral323 LVJosh Turek 48Ashley Hinson 41Don't know 11Someone else 1+1 other release0.238Poll release
Suffolk UniversityGeneral · Senate500 LVAshley Hinson 45.4Josh Turek 40.8+1 other release0.331Poll release
Emerson CollegeGeneral · Senate712 LVAshley Hinson 48Josh Turek 45+1 other release0.203Poll release
The New York Times/Siena CollegeGeneral · Senate600 LVAshley Hinson 48Josh Turek 46+1 other release0.055News coverage
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchGeneral · Senate1,003 RVJosh Turek 50Ashley Hinson 460.065News coverage
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchGeneral1,003 RVJosh Turek 50Ashley Hinson 46Don't know 4Would not vote 0Someone else 00.065News coverage
CygnalGeneral · Senate · REP sponsor · REP partisan600 LVAshley Hinson 46Josh Turek 44.2+1 other release0.044Poll release

Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.