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Forecast6 days out
Race polling · SEN-IA

Iowa Senate polls 2026

Josh Turek (D) vs Ashley Hinson (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageD+0.5the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls3737 on file · 35 in the poll average · 2 not counted
Latest field dateOct 23Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-23 (5 days old)
EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 28, 2026D+0.5today's poll average of 35 polls

R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10Mar ’26MayJulSep
  • poll in the average · area is its weight
  • trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table
DaysAverage as it stoodTrend line
Oct 28, 2026D+0.5D+0.5
Oct 23–Oct 27, 2026D+0.5D+0.5
Oct 22, 2026D+0.5D+0.5
Oct 19–Oct 21, 2026D+0.6D+0.5
Oct 15–Oct 18, 2026D+0.7D+0.6 to D+0.5
Oct 13–Oct 14, 2026D+0.7D+0.7 to D+0.6
Oct 12, 2026D+0.6D+0.7
Oct 11, 2026D+0.8D+0.7
Oct 6–Oct 10, 2026D+0.9D+0.7
Oct 5, 2026D+0.9D+0.7
Oct 4, 2026D+1.1D+0.7
Oct 1–Oct 3, 2026D+0.9D+0.9 to D+0.8
Sep 30, 2026D+1.0D+0.9
Sep 29, 2026D+1.0D+1.0
Sep 28, 2026D+1.2D+1.0
Sep 23–Sep 27, 2026D+1.2D+1.1 to D+1.0
Sep 20–Sep 22, 2026D+1.1D+1.1
Sep 18–Sep 19, 2026D+0.2D+1.1
Sep 16–Sep 17, 2026D+0.5D+1.0
Sep 11–Sep 15, 2026D+1.2D+0.8 to D+0.9
Sep 10, 2026D+1.2D+0.8
Sep 8–Sep 9, 2026D+0.5D+0.8
Sep 1–Sep 7, 2026D+0.1D+0.6 to D+0.9
Aug 31, 2026D+0.4D+0.5
Aug 28–Aug 30, 2026R+0.1D+0.2 to D+0.4
Aug 23–Aug 27, 2026R+1.2R+0.4 to D+0.2
Aug 4–Aug 22, 2026R+0.4R+0.4 to R+0.5
Jun 27–Aug 3, 2026D+0.2D+0.2 to R+0.4
Jun 19–Jun 26, 2026R+0.4R+0.1 to D+0.2
Jun 11–Jun 18, 2026D+0.1R+0.1 to R+0.2
Jun 4–Jun 10, 2026R+1.2R+0.5 to R+0.1
Apr 9–Jun 3, 2026R+2.1R+2.1 to R+0.6
Mar 16–Apr 8, 2026R+3.7R+3.7 to R+2.1
Jan 11–Mar 15, 2026R+3.0R+3.0 to R+3.7

In Senate races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at a quarter of its weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+0.6.

Every poll on file · 37

newest added first

35 in the poll average · 2 shown, not counted

PollsterFieldedSampleResultAddedWeightSource
●Echelon InsightsGeneral403 LVD+2.0Josh Turek 45Ashley Hinson 43Thomas Laehn 7Don't know 3Someone else 2Would not vote 01d ago0.52Poll release
●InsiderAdvantageGeneral1,200 LVR+1.5Ashley Hinson 47Josh Turek 45.5Don't know 4.4Thomas Laehn 3.15d ago0.88Poll release
●New River Strategies/GS Strategy GroupGeneral602 LVD+2.0Josh Turek 46Ashley Hinson 44Thomas Laehn 8Don't know 26d ago0.56Poll release
●co/efficientGeneral · Senate · REP sponsor · REP partisan863 LVR+3.0Ashley Hinson 48Josh Turek 45Thomas Laehn 20.72Poll release
●National Public AffairsGeneral · Senate · REP sponsor · REP partisan678 LVR+3.0Ashley Hinson 47Josh Turek 44Thomas Laehn 4+1 other release0.59Poll document
●Trafalgar GroupGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan1,094 LVR+1.7Ashley Hinson 45.9Josh Turek 44.2Don't know 6.4Thomas Laehn 3.50.77Poll release
●YouGovGeneral2,245 LVD+1.0Josh Turek 47Ashley Hinson 46Don't know 4Someone else 2Would not vote 00.83Poll document
●Marist UniversityGeneral · Senate1,100 LVD+3.0Josh Turek 48Ashley Hinson 45+1 other release0.74Poll release
●Emerson CollegeGeneral650 LVR+1.6Ashley Hinson 46.6Josh Turek 45Don't know 7Thomas Laehn 1.50.54Poll release
●CNN/SSRSGeneral801 LVR+2.0Ashley Hinson 45Josh Turek 43Neither 8Someone else 3Don't know 00.59News coverage
●Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchGeneral1,008 LVD+2.0Josh Turek 49Ashley Hinson 47Don't know 2Someone else 1Would not vote 0+1 other release0.61News coverage
●Marist UniversityGeneral1,050 RVD+8.0Josh Turek 50Ashley Hinson 42Don't know 5Someone else 20.57Poll release

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.