Iowa Senate polls
Josh Turek (D) vs Ashley Hinson (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateD+0.9same figure as the race page
Polls1616 recorded polls · 16 eligible for the aggregate · 16 with positive weight
Latest field dateSep 10Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-10 (3 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 19
newest first17 in the aggregate · 2 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Rasmussen ReportsGeneral · R sponsor · R partisan | 1,031 LV | Josh Turek 45Ashley Hinson 40 | 1h ago | 0.775 | Poll release | |
| ●YouGovGeneral | 2,127 LV | Josh Turek 45Ashley Hinson 43Don't know 10Would not vote 1Someone else 1+4 other releases | 2d ago | 1.034 | Poll document | |
| ●Emerson CollegeGeneral · Senate | 750 LV | Ashley Hinson 50Josh Turek 45+1 other release | 0.524 | Poll release | ||
| ●Global Strategy GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 800 LV | Josh Turek 46Ashley Hinson 42Don't know 6Thomas Laehn 6 | 5d ago | 0.335 | News coverage | |
| ●Wedgewood PollsGeneral | 600 LV | Ashley Hinson 50Josh Turek 48Don't know 2 | 0.335 | Poll document | ||
| ●Abacus DataGeneral | 323 LV | Josh Turek 48Ashley Hinson 41Don't know 11Someone else 1+1 other release | 0.238 | Poll release | ||
| ●Suffolk UniversityGeneral · Senate | 500 LV | Ashley Hinson 45.4Josh Turek 40.8+1 other release | 0.331 | Poll release | ||
| ●Emerson CollegeGeneral · Senate | 712 LV | Ashley Hinson 48Josh Turek 45+1 other release | 0.203 | Poll release | ||
| ●The New York Times/Siena CollegeGeneral · Senate | 600 LV | Ashley Hinson 48Josh Turek 46+1 other release | 0.055 | News coverage | ||
| ●Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchGeneral · Senate | 1,003 RV | Josh Turek 50Ashley Hinson 46 | 0.065 | News coverage | ||
| ●Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchGeneral | 1,003 RV | Josh Turek 50Ashley Hinson 46Don't know 4Would not vote 0Someone else 0 | 0.065 | News coverage | ||
| ●CygnalGeneral · Senate · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 600 LV | Ashley Hinson 46Josh Turek 44.2+1 other release | 0.044 | Poll release |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.