Senate
Chance of D control>99 in 100
Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 22 of 25 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 22.0 of 25 · 80% range 20–24
See all 25 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
No U.S. Senate seat in Hawaiiis on the 2026 ballot — both of the state's seats are mid-cycle. Senate control still runs through the 35 races on the national Senate map.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Honolulu | 150,518 (54.4%) | 118,985 (43.0%) | D+11.4 | 276,697 |
| Hawaii | 38,052 (56.6%) | 27,421 (40.8%) | D+15.8 | 67,221 |
| Maui | 27,892 (54.6%) | 21,826 (42.8%) | D+11.9 | 51,045 |
| Kauai | 12,557 (51.5%) | 11,209 (45.9%) | D+5.5 | 24,400 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Both chambers carry the Call the Map state legislature forecast — the same model the Chamber Board publishes.
Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 22 of 25 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 22.0 of 25 · 80% range 20–24
See all 25 districts →Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 42 of 51 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 43.1 of 51 · 80% range 41–47
See all 51 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowDemocratic trifecta
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | D | D |
| House | D | D |