One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
No U.S. Senate seat in Nevadais on the 2026 ballot — both of the state's seats are mid-cycle. Senate control still runs through the 35 races on the national Senate map.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Clark | 353,013 (50.4%) | 325,653 (46.4%) | D+3.9 | 701,101 |
| Washoe | 88,573 (49.4%) | 84,995 (47.4%) | D+2.0 | 179,306 |
| Douglas | 7,873 (32.6%) | 15,527 (64.2%) | R+31.7 | 24,174 |
| Lyon | 6,105 (26.8%) | 15,969 (70.0%) | R+43.3 | 22,804 |
| Carson City | 9,108 (43.1%) | 11,338 (53.7%) | R+10.6 | 21,122 |
| Nye | 5,123 (27.9%) | 12,645 (68.9%) | R+41.0 | 18,355 |
| Elko | 3,141 (20.6%) | 11,643 (76.2%) | R+55.7 | 15,273 |
| Churchill | 2,169 (23.6%) | 6,717 (73.2%) | R+49.5 | 9,180 |
| Humboldt | 1,162 (21.3%) | 4,122 (75.5%) | R+54.2 | 5,459 |
| White Pine | 599 (20.3%) | 2,264 (76.5%) | R+56.3 | 2,958 |
| Storey | 620 (29.7%) | 1,404 (67.1%) | R+37.5 | 2,091 |
| Lander | 327 (17.6%) | 1,467 (79.2%) | R+61.5 | 1,853 |
| Lincoln | 212 (12.6%) | 1,415 (84.2%) | R+71.5 | 1,681 |
| Pershing | 339 (21.6%) | 1,180 (75.2%) | R+53.6 | 1,569 |
| Mineral | 491 (31.5%) | 1,019 (65.3%) | R+33.9 | 1,560 |
| Eureka | 70 (9.9%) | 611 (86.8%) | R+77.0 | 704 |
| Esmeralda | 49 (15.7%) | 254 (81.2%) | R+65.2 | 313 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Assembly carries the Call the Map state legislature forecast; Senate carries no published control probability in this edition.
The district-by-district results for this chamber don't yet roll up into a chamber-wide total the model will stand behind, so no control probability is published. The seat estimate below is still the model's.
Expected Democratic seats 13.0 of 21 · 80% range 11–15
See all 21 districts →Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 27 of 42 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 27.0 of 42 · 80% range 23–31
See all 42 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowSplit control
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | D | D |
| Assembly | D | D |