Nevada Governor polls 2026
Aaron Ford (D) vs Joe Lombardo (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 29, 2026D+0.3today's poll average of 14 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- not counted · shown, never moves the line
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
- left of the break: 1 earlier poll, not on the time axis
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | D+0.3 | D+0.3 |
| Oct 25–Oct 28, 2026 | D+0.3 | D+0.3 |
| Oct 23–Oct 24, 2026 | R+0.5 | D+0.3 |
| Oct 13–Oct 22, 2026 | R+1.8 | R+1.4 to D+0.2 |
| Sep 30–Oct 12, 2026 | R+2.0 | R+1.9 to R+1.6 |
| Sep 26–Sep 29, 2026 | R+2.2 | R+2.0 |
| Sep 8–Sep 25, 2026 | R+2.3 | R+2.3 to R+2.0 |
| Jul 29–Sep 7, 2026 | R+4.5 | R+4.5 to R+2.3 |
| Jul 16–Jul 28, 2026 | R+3.5 | R+3.5 to R+4.4 |
| Jun 29–Jul 15, 2026 | R+5.2 | R+5.2 to R+3.5 |
| May 11–Jun 28, 2026 | R+2.3 | R+2.3 to R+5.2 |
| Mar 13–May 10, 2026 | R+1.8 | R+1.8 to R+2.3 |
| Feb 17–Mar 12, 2026 | R+2.3 | R+2.3 to R+1.8 |
| Nov 18–Feb 16, 2026 | R+1.2 | R+1.2 to R+2.3 |
| Oct 13–Nov 17, 2025 | R+3.0 | R+3.0 to R+1.2 |
In governor races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+0.9.
Every poll on file · 16
newest added first14 in the poll average · 2 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion StrategiesGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 950 LV | D+4.0Aaron Ford 49Joe Lombardo 45 | 2d ago | 0.80 | Poll release | |
| ●RedBox ResearchGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan | 1,407 LV | D+3.0Aaron Ford 46Joe Lombardo 43 | 3d ago | 0.93 | Poll release | |
| ●Concord Public Opinion PartnersGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 565 LV | R+1.0Joe Lombardo 43Aaron Ford 42Don't know 8Someone else 7 | 3d ago | 0.46 | Poll release | |
| ●Global Strategy GroupGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan | 700 LV | R+1.0Joe Lombardo 48Aaron Ford 47 | 0.60 | Poll release | ||
| ●Noble Predictive InsightsGeneral | 708 LV | R+2.0Joe Lombardo 42Aaron Ford 40Don't know 9Danielle Ford 7Neither 2Someone else 1+1 other release | 0.49 | Poll release | ||
| ●Emerson CollegeGeneral | 680 LV | D+2.1Aaron Ford 44.16Joe Lombardo 42.05Don't know 11.36Danielle Ford 2.44 | 0.39 | Poll release | ||
| Grassroots TargetingGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 2,500 LV | R+12.0Joe Lombardo 52Aaron Ford 40 | excluded by source policy | Poll release | ||
| ●Tarrance GroupGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 550 LV | R+7.0Joe Lombardo 50Aaron Ford 43 | 0.22 | Poll release | ||
| ●Public Opinion StrategiesGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 600 LV | R+9.0Joe Lombardo 51Aaron Ford 42 | 0.16 | Poll release | ||
| Vote TXTGeneral | 412 RV | R+21.0Joe Lombardo 51Aaron Ford 30 | 0 · not counted | Poll release | ||
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 558 LV | TiedJoe Lombardo 44Aaron Ford 44Don't know 12 | 0.19 | Poll release | ||
| ●Global Strategy GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 700 LV | R+3.0Joe Lombardo 45Aaron Ford 42Don't know 8None 5 | 0.10 | Pollster post |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.