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Race polling · GOV-NV

Nevada Governor polls

Aaron Ford (D) vs Joe Lombardo (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Adjusted aggregateR+0.2same figure as the race page
Polls1212 recorded polls · 11 eligible for the aggregate · 10 with positive weight
Latest field dateSep 8Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-08 (6 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition

The polls the model reads

hover, tap or Tab to any poll
last 30 daysR+25R+20R+15R+10R+5EVEND+5Jan ’24Jan ’25Jan ’26
  • counted poll · area is its model weight
  • weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
  • poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
  • published average
  • 30 days before this edition

Every poll on file · 12

newest first

12 in the aggregate · 0 shown, not counted

PollsterFieldedAddedSampleResultWeightSource
Emerson CollegeGeneral · Governor680 LVAaron Ford 44.2Joe Lombardo 42Danielle Ford 2.4+1 other release4d ago0.629Poll release
Tarrance GroupGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan550 LVJoe Lombardo 50Aaron Ford 430.134Poll release
Grassroots TargetingGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan2,500 LVJoe Lombardo 52Aaron Ford 40excluded from aggregatePoll release
Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan558 LVJoe Lombardo 44Aaron Ford 44Don't know 120.097Poll release
Wedgewood PollsGeneral700 LVJoe Lombardo 50Aaron Ford 47Don't know 30.074Pollster post
Public Opinion StrategiesGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan600 LVJoe Lombardo 51Aaron Ford 420.045Poll release
Global Strategy GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan700 LVJoe Lombardo 45Aaron Ford 42Don't know 8None 50.008Pollster post
Noble Predictive InsightsGeneral · Governor845 RVJoe Lombardo 39Aaron Ford 38+4 other releases0.002Poll release
Hart Research AssociatesGeneral · Governor · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan800 LVJoe Lombardo 46Aaron Ford 43+1 other release0.001Pollster post
Emerson CollegeGeneral · Governor800 RVJoe Lombardo 41.1Aaron Ford 41.1+1 other release0.000Poll document
Noble Predictive InsightsGeneral · Governor766 RVJoe Lombardo 40Aaron Ford 37+1 other release0.000Poll release
Vote TXTGeneral412 RVJoe Lombardo 51Aaron Ford 300 · not countedPoll release

Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.