Michigan Senate polls
Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs Mike Rogers (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageD+2.4the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls5555 on file · 51 in the poll average · 4 not counted
Latest field dateOct 22Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-22 (2 days old)
EditionOct 23the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 23, 2026D+2.4today's poll average of 51 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- not counted · shown, never moves the line
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
- left of the break: 1 earlier poll, not on the time axis
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | D+2.4 | D+2.4 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | D+2.4 | D+2.4 |
| Oct 18–Oct 21, 2026 | D+2.4 | D+2.4 |
| Oct 14–Oct 17, 2026 | D+2.5 | D+2.4 |
| Oct 10–Oct 13, 2026 | D+2.5 | D+2.4 |
| Oct 8–Oct 9, 2026 | D+2.5 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 6–Oct 7, 2026 | D+2.6 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 4–Oct 5, 2026 | D+2.6 | D+2.6 to D+2.5 |
| Oct 1–Oct 3, 2026 | D+2.7 | D+2.6 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | D+2.5 | D+2.6 |
| Sep 28–Sep 29, 2026 | D+2.5 | D+2.6 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | D+2.6 | D+2.6 |
| Sep 24–Sep 26, 2026 | D+2.3 | D+2.6 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | D+2.2 | D+2.6 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | D+2.3 | D+2.5 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | D+2.2 | D+2.5 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | D+2.0 | D+2.5 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | D+1.7 | D+2.4 |
| Sep 17–Sep 18, 2026 | D+1.9 | D+2.3 |
| Sep 14–Sep 16, 2026 | D+1.9 | D+2.1 to D+2.2 |
| Sep 9–Sep 13, 2026 | D+1.8 | D+1.9 to D+2.0 |
| Sep 6–Sep 8, 2026 | D+1.8 | D+1.9 |
| Sep 3–Sep 5, 2026 | D+1.7 | D+1.8 |
| Aug 28–Sep 2, 2026 | D+1.7 | D+1.9 to D+1.8 |
| Aug 20–Aug 27, 2026 | D+1.2 | D+1.5 to D+1.9 |
| Aug 17–Aug 19, 2026 | D+0.9 | D+1.3 to D+1.4 |
| Aug 11–Aug 16, 2026 | D+0.2 | D+0.7 to D+1.2 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | D+0.1 | D+0.6 |
| Jul 31–Aug 9, 2026 | R+0.6 | R+0.5 to D+0.5 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | R+0.3 | R+0.5 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | R+0.1 | R+0.6 |
| Jul 24–Jul 28, 2026 | R+0.1 | R+0.5 to R+0.6 |
| Jun 30–Jul 23, 2026 | D+1.3 | D+1.3 to R+0.4 |
| Jun 22–Jun 29, 2026 | D+1.4 | D+1.3 |
| Jun 14–Jun 21, 2026 | D+1.5 | D+1.4 |
| Jun 13, 2026 | D+1.1 | D+1.4 |
| Jun 4–Jun 12, 2026 | D+0.1 | D+0.6 to D+1.4 |
| May 23–Jun 3, 2026 | R+1.4 | R+1.3 to D+0.4 |
| May 7–May 22, 2026 | R+3.2 | R+3.2 to R+1.4 |
| May 1–May 6, 2026 | R+4.4 | R+3.6 to R+3.2 |
| Jan 25–Apr 30, 2026 | R+4.1 | R+4.1 to R+3.8 |
| Jan 6–Jan 24, 2026 | R+7.1 | R+7.1 to R+4.1 |
| Nov 21–Jan 5, 2026 | R+7.7 | R+7.7 to R+7.1 |
| Oct 25–Nov 20, 2025 | R+14.0 | R+14.0 to R+7.7 |
The forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at a quarter of its weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+2.5.
Every poll on file · 55
newest first51 in the poll average · 4 shown, not counted · 31 primary polls on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●InsiderAdvantageGeneral · Senate | 1,200 LV | D+1.0Abdul El-Sayed 47Mike Rogers 46 | 18h ago | 0.93 | Poll release | |
| ●Marist UniversityGeneral | 1,185 LV | D+2.0Abdul El-Sayed 50Mike Rogers 48Don't know 3Someone else 1+2 other releases | 3d ago | 0.88 | Poll release | |
| ●Rasmussen ReportsGeneral · R sponsor · R partisan | 798 LV | D+2.0Abdul El-Sayed 46Mike Rogers 44 | 7d ago | 0.69 | Poll release | |
| ●InsiderAdvantageGeneral | 1,200 LV | D+2.3Abdul El-Sayed 47.8Mike Rogers 45.5Don't know 5.4Lydia Christensen 0.7Timothy Long 0.4Douglas Marsh 0.2 | 0.81 | Poll release | ||
| ●The Tyson GroupGeneral · Senate · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 600 LV | R+2.0Mike Rogers 46Abdul El-Sayed 44 | 0.56 | Poll release | ||
| ●Quantus InsightsGeneral | 744 LV | D+1.2Abdul El-Sayed 48.4Mike Rogers 47.2Don't know 2.7Lydia Christensen 0.8Douglas Marsh 0.7Timothy Long 0.3 | 0.61 | Poll release | ||
| ●YouGovGeneral | 3,947 LV | D+1.0Abdul El-Sayed 49Mike Rogers 48Don't know 2Someone else 1Would not vote 0 | 0.80 | Poll document | ||
| ●Z to A ResearchGeneral · Senate · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 483 LV | D+7.0Abdul El-Sayed 49Mike Rogers 42Lydia Christensen 3 | 0.46 | Pollster post | ||
| ●Mitchell Research & CommunicationsGeneral | 682 LV | D+4.2Abdul El-Sayed 45.6Mike Rogers 41.4Don't know 6Lydia Christensen 3Walter Kristy 2Douglas Marsh 1Timothy Long 1 | 0.55 | News coverage | ||
| ●Trafalgar GroupGeneral · Senate · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 1,085 LV | D+2.0Abdul El-Sayed 47Mike Rogers 45Lydia Christensen 2Tim Long 1Douglas P. Marsh 0Walter P. Kristy 0 | 0.69 | Poll release | ||
| ●Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchGeneral | 1,028 LV | D+1.0Abdul El-Sayed 50Mike Rogers 49Don't know 1Would not vote 0Someone else 0+1 other release | 0.65 | News coverage | ||
| ●The Tyson GroupGeneral · Senate · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 600 LV | D+1.0Abdul El-Sayed 44Mike Rogers 43 | 0.49 | Poll release |
Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.