Michigan · Governor
Open this race on The Map ↗Jocelyn Benson is narrowly favored to keep the Michigan governorship in Democratic hands. Predicted margin: D+6.5.
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
About this field
Whitmer is term-limited. Michigan's official field confirms Benson and James in contested August 4 primaries; both are current leaders, not settled nominees.
Forecast share averages the simulated vote. Win chance counts how often a candidate wins. A wider range of outcomes can give a candidate a higher win chance despite a lower average share.
Forecast history
First published reading · Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points R+2.2 to D+15.1. Methodology
Hover the line, tap it, or use the arrow keys to inspect its history.
About this series
This comparable series begins on September 9, 2026, when the model version changed to CTMM 2.1. Earlier readings remain in the archive and are not joined as voter movement; faded points before September 9, 2026 are reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those days.
Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.
The polls
Polling average D+6.828 recorded polls · 28 eligible for the aggregate · 24 with positive weight
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Result | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-08-31 | Glengariff Group, Inc. ↗ | D+4.0D 47% · R 43% | 600 LV |
| from 2026-08-22 | EPIC-MRA ↗ | D+4.0D 45% · R 41% | 600 LV |
| from 2026-08-10 | Michigan State University/YouGov ↗ | D+10.0D 49% · R 39% | 913 RV |
| from 2026-08-10 | Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov ↗ | D+9.0D 52% · R 43% | 779 LV |
| from 2026-08-09 | Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research ↗AARP | D+5.0D 49% · R 44% | 877 LV |
| from 2026-08-06 | TIPP Insights ↗League of American Workers | D+16.5D 53.02% · R 36.55% | 1,215 LV |
| from 2026-08-06 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗Fox News | D+5.0D 52% · R 47% | 1,006 RV |
| from 2026-07-24 | EPIC-MRA ↗MIRS | D+9.0D 47% · R 38% | 600 LV |
Explore poll adjustments
Model poll average D+6.8
- Published result
- D+4.0
- Model read
- D+2.8
- Model weight
- 0.547
- Fieldwork
- 31 Aug–3 Sep
- Sample
- 600 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Pollster quality
- 0.667
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.18 points; pollster −1.06 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 9 SepOpen poll source- Published result
- D+4.0
- Model read
- D+3.6
- Model weight
- 0.431
- Fieldwork
- 22 Aug–28 Aug
- Sample
- 600 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Pollster quality
- 0.641
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.18 points; pollster −0.23 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 30 AugOpen poll source- Published result
- D+9.0
- Model read
- D+8.8
- Model weight
- 0.324
- Fieldwork
- 10 Aug–20 Aug
- Sample
- 779 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Pollster quality
- 0.550
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.18 points; pollster 0.00 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 1 SepOpen poll source- Published result
- D+10.0
- Model read
- D+8.7
- Model weight
- 0.351
- Fieldwork
- 10 Aug–20 Aug
- Sample
- 913 RV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Pollster quality
- 0.550
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.18 points; pollster 0.00 points.
Wikipedia polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 2 SepOpen poll source- Published result
- D+5.0
- Model read
- D+4.8
- Model weight
- 0.255
- Fieldwork
- 9 Aug–11 Aug
- Sample
- 877 LV
- Sponsor
- AARP
- Pollster quality
- 0.550
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.18 points; pollster 0.00 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 24 AugOpen poll source- Published result
- D+5.0
- Model read
- D+2.2
- Model weight
- 0.319
- Fieldwork
- 6 Aug–10 Aug
- Sample
- 1,006 RV
- Sponsor
- Fox News
- Pollster quality
- 0.664
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.18 points; pollster −1.48 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 19 AugOpen poll source- Published result
- D+16.5
- Model read
- D+18.5
- Model weight
- 0.492
- Fieldwork
- 6 Aug–10 Aug
- Sample
- 1,215 LV
- Sponsor
- League of American Workers
- Pollster quality
- 0.931
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor +1.84 points; pollster +0.17 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 1 SepOpen poll source- Published result
- D+9.0
- Model read
- D+8.6
- Model weight
- 0.171
- Fieldwork
- 24 Jul–31 Jul
- Sample
- 600 LV
- Sponsor
- MIRS
- Pollster quality
- 0.641
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.18 points; pollster −0.23 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 19 AugOpen poll sourceHow the margin was built
Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.
The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded.
All calculations & sources
How this state voted, 2024 −1.410 points
The state's two-party presidential margin in 2024, from our own county sums — the same measurement the model's statewide terrain center is built from. Every pull below is measured from here, not from EVEN, which is why a landslide seat's listed pulls are small numbers and still land where the forecast does.
- 2024 presidential result for this state, two-party, from Call the Map's own county sums.
- Same source as Act I's 2024-president reference mark, so the origin lands on it.
Fitted model, above the terrain shown +4.277 points
What the fitted model adds on top of the starting terrain above — incumbency, past results, campaign finance and the other fitted terms — measured from that terrain rather than from EVEN. It is a comparison with the starting point already shown, not a separate input. The source detail lists the variables the fit uses.
- Fitted baseline 2.867 minus starting point -1.410 = 4.277 points.
- Fitted intercept: -6.136 points.
- 2010 White population share used by the frozen historical fit: observed input 79.158. -0.503 × ((79.158 − 77.922) / 12.864) = -0.048 points.
- gov_midterm_wh: observed input -1.000. -0.987 × ((-1.000 − 0.336) / 0.739) = 1.785 points.
- 2024 presidential lean relative to the national result: observed input 0.058. 4.163 × ((0.058 − -4.415) / 20.258) = 0.919 points.
- Previous governor election margin: observed input 10.530. 1.755 × ((10.530 − -3.131) / 19.227) = 1.247 points.
- gov_inc_running_signed: observed input 0.000. 2.531 × ((0.000 − -0.120) / 0.708) = 0.428 points.
- gov_inc_tenure_signed: observed input 0.000. 3.340 × ((0.000 − -0.143) / 0.902) = 0.529 points.
- The displayed arithmetic is rounded; the fitted terms use full precision. The intercept plus these five terms gives the non-ratings baseline.
- No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.
- Certified 2024 presidential baseline: state R+1.4, national R+1.5; subtracting the national margin gives relative lean +0.1. Source: FEC compilation of certified state results.
Historical error calibration +1.526 points
A prior-election residual correction, when an admitted model publishes one.
- No separate historical residual correction is published in this governor edition.
This race’s polls +1.100 points
What this race’s own recent polling adds beyond its prior, after each poll is weighted for recency, sample size and pollster quality.
- 28 poll(s) / 12 pollster(s)
- The admitted polling average is D+6.8, after pollster, sample and recency adjustments.
- Polling contribution = 93.5% × (6.768 − prior 4.694) = +1.1 points after component rounding.
- The prior includes national environment and expert ratings. The blend is D+6.6 before the separately disclosed candidate and formula adjustments.
National environment +0.962 points
The contribution to this race’s margin, not the national polling margin itself. The race’s loading, reference level and polling blend determine how much of the national climate reaches its final forecast.
- The national environment in this edition is D+7.5. This row is its contribution to the race’s prior, not a claim that the country is D+1.0.
- The environment enters once, through the fitted governor elasticity: 0.4216 × (7.500 − 1.913, the environment the governor priors themselves imply) = +2.4; the producer rounds the contribution to +2.4.
- Polls receive 93.5% of the blend. They attenuate this contribution to +0.2 in the final center; the offset is included in the polling row.
- The elasticity is fitted on the pooled panel of contested governor races (2010–2024) with cycle-clustered standard errors; it is a measured response to the national environment, not a judgment floor.
The components this edition publishes for this race, in points. “Other factors” closes the sum to the two-party structural lean exactly. Here the structural lean IS the published margin, so the walk sums to the projection exactly; nothing is left over.
| Named factor | Contribution |
|---|---|
| FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race. | +2.87 |
| Historical calibrationThe House lane's calibration against certified past cycles. | +1.53 |
| This race's pollsAdmitted head-to-head polls of this race, recency- and quality-weighted. | +1.10 |
| National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin. | +0.96 |
| Other factors | 0.00 |
Moves with
- Wisconsin Governorsame side on 69 in 100 nights
- Iowa Governorsame side on 73 in 100 nights
In the model's correlated simulation nights these races most often land the same way — shared national and regional swings, not cause and effect. 2,000 weighted nights.
The prediction market
The recorded quote on Polymarket prices the Democratic side at 90 in 100, on $48,518 of volume.
Quote is inside the 36-hour refresh window. Quote timestamp: 2026-09-07. Market prices do not enter the forecast.
Scope & sources
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 4,272,400
- Forecast turnout
- 56.1% of the voting-eligible population
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+1.4
Statewide, 57.5% of the voting-eligible population is projected to cast a ballot; the lower figure above is the share projected to vote in this race.
Population profile Select a measure for its source and denominator
U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗
Coverage
2 quotes
- Democratic gubernatorial candidate and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson called healthcare the “defining issue” of the 2026 gubernatorial election at a roundtable event in South Lansing on Tuesday afternoon.
Photos by @kdailey.bsky.social ↗
Michigan Advance · Official · 2h ago
curated state newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match · election-topic match - Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said she will ensure all eligible voters can submit ballots in the midterm elections, after a judge again blocked the Trump administration's mail-in voting order. ↗
CBS News · Official · 1d ago
curated national newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match · election-topic match