LA-05 · U.S. House
Open this race on The Map ↗The Republican nominee is heavily favored to lead Louisiana’s first round. Predicted margin: R+25.3.
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
Forecast history
Latest reading · Sep 13 · first published Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points R+34.2 to R+16.4. Methodology
Hover the line, tap it, or use the arrow keys to inspect its history.
About this series
This comparable series begins on September 9, 2026, when the model version changed to CTMM 2.2. Earlier readings remain in the archive and are not joined as voter movement; faded points before September 9, 2026 are reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those days.
Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.
How the margin was built
Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.
The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded.
All calculations & sources
This district's measured terrain −33.104 points
Call the Map's partisan lean on the CURRENT district lines, before any current-cycle evidence. Every pull below is measured from here — not from EVEN.
- Call the Map partisan lean, district geography bound to this forecast edition.
- Prior source: model_reconstructed_trial15_new_seat; district redrawn for 2026.
Fitted model, above the terrain shown +6.446 points
What the fitted model adds on top of the starting terrain above — incumbency, past results, campaign finance and the other fitted terms — measured from that terrain rather than from EVEN. It is a comparison with the starting point already shown, not a separate input. The source detail lists the variables the fit uses.
- Fitted baseline -26.658 minus starting point -33.104 = 6.446 points.
- Presidential-margin-by-congressional-district dynamic core.
- Presidential-margin-by-congressional-district dynamic core (Jul 8 2026 deploy): a mass fit across district demographics, fundraising, incumbency, and past-cycle overperformance, trained on all 435 districts at once instead of a hand-built lean+incumbency recipe.
- This district's lines changed for 2026 — the core weights its within-state redistricting position alongside the raw presidential margin.
- The work: the core's fitted terms sum to −26.7 — the fundamentals row.
- fundamentals core = 25-term dynamic formula (mass fit over the master feature matrix, held-out-cycle validated; see matrix/feature_dictionary.md + mass_fit_report.json)
- 40-term formula, held-out validated.
National environment +1.365 points
The contribution to this race’s margin, not the national polling margin itself. The race’s loading, reference level and polling blend determine how much of the national climate reaches its final forecast.
- Three-source blend, updated 2026-09-08: 52% generic-ballot aggregates (D+6.5) · 28% special-election overperformance (D+9.0 across 46 specials) · 20% approval-implied (D+8.6 from net approval -21.7).
- Latest polls — generic ballot 2026-09-08 (5 days old), approval 2026-09-10 (3 days old).
- Generic-ballot average D+6.5 · support factor 0.84 (the share of that channel's capacity the admitted polls carry) — separate inputs; their product is a capacity diagnostic, not a margin.
- Weights are the 55/25/20 capacities scaled by each channel's evidence and renormalized, so thin polling widens the interval instead of pulling the center toward zero — 16% of the weight is carried that way.
- Blended national environment: D+7.6.
- Applied at full strength to this chamber's races.
- The work: national environment × 1 chamber strength = +1.4 of this margin.
- Blended national environment: D+7.6 (updated 2026-09-08).
- Effective poll weight 84%; fundamentals share 16%, carried by the interval (×1.08) rather than by the center.
- The support factor is the share of the generic-ballot capacity the admitted polls carry; average × support is a capacity diagnostic, not a margin, and is not what the row above multiplies.
- Applied at full strength to this chamber: +1.4 of this margin.
The components this edition publishes for this race, in points. “Other factors” closes the sum to the two-party structural lean exactly. Here the structural lean IS the published margin, so the walk sums to the projection exactly; nothing is left over.
| Named factor | Contribution |
|---|---|
| FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race. | −26.66 |
| National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin. | +1.37 |
| Other factors | 0.00 |
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | Multiple-candidate ballotAt least one party total combines several candidates. It is not an individual candidate's result. | 319,851 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | Multiple-candidate ballotAt least one party total combines several candidates. It is not an individual candidate's result. | 223,553 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | Multiple-candidate ballotAt least one party total combines several candidates. It is not an individual candidate's result. | 435,090 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | R+37.9 | 223,946 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.
The money
Dan McKay ↗
D$90Kraised
$-19056 cash on handFiling through 07/18/2026
Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $0
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $0
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee receipts are counted through Sep 1, 2026. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
$460K in outside spending on earlier candidates.
No filing matched: The Republican nominee.
No outside spending matched: Dan McKay.
FEC filings · through 07/18/2026 · Definitions & method
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 179,569
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+34.4