Massachusetts Senate polls 2026
Ed Markey (D) vs John Deaton (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 28, 2026D+25.0today's poll average of 12 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- not counted · shown, never moves the line
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
- left of the break: 1 earlier poll, not on the time axis
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | D+25.0 | D+25.0 |
| Oct 18–Oct 27, 2026 | D+25.0 | D+25.0 |
| Oct 12–Oct 17, 2026 | D+24.2 | D+24.7 to D+25.0 |
| Sep 22–Oct 11, 2026 | D+23.2 | D+23.2 to D+24.6 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | D+21.5 | D+23.1 |
| Aug 24–Sep 20, 2026 | D+20.9 | D+20.9 to D+23.1 |
| Aug 12–Aug 23, 2026 | D+21.6 | D+21.6 to D+20.9 |
| Jun 23–Aug 11, 2026 | D+22.2 | D+22.2 to D+21.6 |
| Jun 12–Jun 22, 2026 | D+24.9 | D+24.5 to D+22.3 |
| Apr 20–Jun 11, 2026 | D+24.5 | D+24.5 to D+24.7 |
| Feb 16–Apr 19, 2026 | D+26.1 | D+26.1 to D+24.5 |
| Jan 25–Feb 15, 2026 | D+23.7 | D+23.7 to D+26.1 |
| Nov 23–Jan 24, 2026 | D+23.0 | D+23.0 to D+23.7 |
In Senate races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at a quarter of its weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+25.1.
Every poll on file · 16
newest added first12 in the poll average · 4 shown, not counted · 13 primary polls on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk UniversityGeneral · Senate | 500 LV | D+28.0Ed Markey 60John Deaton 32Joe Tache 1Shriya Ayyadurai 1 | source not read by the model | Poll release | ||
| ●YouGovGeneral | 800 RV | D+27.0Ed Markey 56John Deaton 29Shiva Ayyadurai 6Don't know 4Joe Tache 3Someone else 2 | 0.64 | Poll release | ||
| ●Suffolk UniversityGeneral | 500 LV | D+28.2Ed Markey 60John Deaton 31.8Don't know 6Joe Tache 1.4Shiva Ayyadurai 0.8 | 0.54 | Poll release | ||
| ●MassINC Polling GroupGeneral | 800 LV | D+26.0Ed Markey 54John Deaton 28Don't know 11Someone else 3Shiva Ayyadurai 3Joe Tache 2 | 0.51 | Poll release | ||
| ●University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral | 556 LV | D+23.0Ed Markey 53John Deaton 30Joe Tache 9Don't know 8Someone else 0 | 0.42 | Poll release | ||
| ●University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral | 906 LV | D+19.0Ed Markey 49John Deaton 30Don't know 12Joe Tache 7Someone else 1+2 other releases | 0.39 | Poll release | ||
| ●University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science/YouGovGeneral · Senate | 800 RV | D+21.0Ed Markey 51John Deaton 30+1 other release | 0.32 | Poll release | ||
| ●University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral | 618 LV | D+16.0Ed Markey 50John Deaton 34Don't know 16Someone else 0+2 other releases | 0.16 | Poll release | ||
| ●Suffolk UniversityGeneral | 500 RV | D+25.2Ed Markey 55John Deaton 29.8Don't know 15.2+1 other release | 0.12 | Poll release | ||
| ●University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral | 603 LV | D+23.0Ed Markey 55John Deaton 32Don't know 12Someone else 1+1 other release | 0.07 | Poll release | ||
| ●University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral | 616 LV | D+29.0Ed Markey 56John Deaton 27Don't know 15Someone else 2+1 other release | 0.04 | Poll release | ||
| ●CygnalGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 800 LV | D+24.0Ed Markey 54John Deaton 30 | 0.03 | News coverage |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.