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FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
Race polling · SEN-MA

Massachusetts Senate polls

Ed Markey (D) vs John Deaton (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Adjusted aggregateD+17.8same figure as the race page
Polls99 recorded polls · 9 eligible for the aggregate · 8 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 24Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-24 (20 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition

The polls the model reads

hover, tap or Tab to any poll
last 30 daysEVEND+10D+20D+30Apr ’25JulOctJan ’26AprJulOct
  • counted poll · area is its model weight
  • weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
  • poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
  • published average
  • 30 days before this edition

Every poll on file · 12

newest first

10 in the aggregate · 2 shown, not counted · 13 primary polls on file, not listed here

PollsterFieldedAddedSampleResultWeightSource
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral906 LVEd Markey 49John Deaton 30Don't know 12Joe Tache 7Someone else 1+3 other releases0.310Poll release
University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science/YouGovGeneral · Senate800 RVEd Markey 51John Deaton 30+1 other release0.260Poll release
YouGovGeneral800 RVEd Markey 51John Deaton 30Don't know 15Would not vote 3+1 other release0.260Poll release
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral618 LVEd Markey 50John Deaton 34Don't know 16Someone else 0+3 other releases0.033Poll release
Suffolk UniversityGeneral · Senate500 RVEd Markey 55John Deaton 30+3 other releases0.031Poll release
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral · Senate603 LVEd Markey 55John Deaton 32+3 other releases0.004Poll release
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral · Senate616 LVEd Markey 56John Deaton 27+3 other releases0.000Poll release
CygnalGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan800 LVEd Markey 54John Deaton 300.000News coverage
Suffolk UniversityGeneral · Senate500 RVSeth Moulton 52John Deaton 29+3 other releases0.000Poll release
SurveyUSAGeneral · Senate775 RVEd Markey 45John Deaton 26+1 other release0 · not countedPoll release
YouGovGeneral700 AEd Markey 35Don't know 33Charles D. Baker 33not in the aggregatePoll release
MassINC Polling GroupGeneral582 LVCharles D. Baker 40Ed Markey 34Don't know 20Would not vote 3Someone else 3not in the aggregatePoll release

Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.