Idaho Senate polls
Democrat (D) vs Jim Risch (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateR+23.1same figure as the race page
Polls66 recorded polls · 6 eligible for the aggregate · 6 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 13Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-13 (31 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 6
newest first6 in the aggregate · 0 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Peak InsightsGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 500 LV | James Risch 52Todd Achilles 18Don't know 17Natalie Fleming 9Matt Loesby 2None 1 | 0.180 | Pollster post | ||
| ●The Bullfinch GroupGeneral · Senate | 608 LV | Jim Risch 34Todd Achilles 30Matt Loesby 4+2 other releases | 0.082 | Poll release | ||
| ●Change ResearchGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | — LV | James Risch 42Don't know 23Todd Achilles 18David Roth 13Natalie Fleming 3Matt Loesby 1+1 other release | 0.177 | Poll document | ||
| ●Peak InsightsGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 500 LV | James Risch 55David Roth 15Don't know 14Todd Achilles 7Natalie Fleming 5Matt Loesby 2None 1 | 0.020 | Poll release | ||
| ●The Bullfinch GroupGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | 774 RV | James Risch 40Todd Achilles 36Don't know 23+2 other releases | 0.010 | Poll release | ||
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | 639 RV | James Risch 48Todd Achilles 34 | 0.001 | Pollster post |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.