Idaho Senate polls 2026
Todd Achilles (I) vs James Risch (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 28, 2026R+10.0today's poll average of 10 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | R+10.0 | R+10.0 |
| Oct 22–Oct 27, 2026 | R+10.0 | R+10.0 |
| Oct 15–Oct 21, 2026 | R+11.7 | R+10.8 to R+10.0 |
| Sep 30–Oct 14, 2026 | R+11.2 | R+11.2 to R+10.8 |
| Sep 16–Sep 29, 2026 | R+9.8 | R+9.8 to R+11.0 |
| Aug 13–Sep 15, 2026 | R+20.0 | R+20.0 to R+9.9 |
| Aug 7–Aug 12, 2026 | R+18.2 | R+17.8 to R+19.9 |
| Jul 30–Aug 6, 2026 | R+23.3 | R+22.6 to R+17.3 |
| Jun 7–Jul 29, 2026 | R+22.6 | R+22.6 to R+22.7 |
| Jun 1–Jun 6, 2026 | R+6.7 | R+17.5 to R+22.4 |
| Mar 17–May 31, 2026 | R+14.0 | R+14.0 to R+16.1 |
In Senate races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at a quarter of its weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+5.8.
Every poll on file · 10
newest added first10 in the poll average
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Peak InsightsGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 500 LV | R+27.0James Risch 54Todd Achilles 27Don't know 10None 4Natalie Fleming 3Matt Loesby 2 | 5d ago | 0.52 | Poll release | |
| ●VoteNexusGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | 700 LV | R+6.0James Risch 49Todd Achilles 43Don't know 8 | 5d ago | 0.67 | Poll document | |
| ●Peak InsightsGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 500 LV | R+25.0James Risch 49Todd Achilles 24Don't know 15None 6Natalie Fleming 3Matt Loesby 2 | 0.44 | Pollster post | ||
| ●Advanced Targeting ResearchGeneral | 700 RV | I+11.0Todd Achilles 50James Risch 39 | 0.44 | Poll document | ||
| ●Peak InsightsGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 500 LV | R+34.0James Risch 52Todd Achilles 18Don't know 17Natalie Fleming 9Matt Loesby 2None 1 | 0.25 | Pollster post | ||
| ●The Bullfinch GroupGeneral · Senate | 608 LV | R+4.0Jim Risch 34Todd Achilles 30Matt Loesby 4+2 other releases | 0.26 | Poll release | ||
| ●Change ResearchGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | — LV | R+24.0James Risch 43Todd Achilles 19Don't know 18David Roth 13Natalie Fleming 3Would not vote 2Matt Loesby 1+1 other release | 0.34 | Poll document | ||
| ●Peak InsightsGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 500 LV | R+48.0James Risch 55David Roth 15Don't know 14Todd Achilles 7Natalie Fleming 5Matt Loesby 2None 1 | 0.12 | Poll release | ||
| ●The Bullfinch GroupGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | 774 RV | R+4.0James Risch 40Todd Achilles 36Don't know 23+2 other releases | 0.14 | Poll release | ||
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | 639 RV | R+14.0James Risch 48Todd Achilles 34 | 0.05 | Pollster post |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.