Maine · Governor
Open this race on The Map ↗Hannah Pingree is heavily favored to win. Projected candidate margin: Hannah Pingree over Bobby Charles by 12.7 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: this race is between an independent and a major-party candidate, so the forecast is published per candidate rather than as a two-party margin.
Show all others (1)
Official ballot sources: Rick Bennett (checked 2026-08-31).
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
About this field
Mills term-limited; blue-leaning open seat.
Forecast share averages the simulated vote. Win chance counts how often a candidate wins. A wider range of outcomes can give a candidate a higher win chance despite a lower average share.
The polls
Ledger weighted average D+12.7Used by the forecast: 3 polls (60-day half-life) · measured D+13.0 · after the fitted poll-error shift D+10.53 recorded polls · 3 eligible for the aggregate · 3 with positive weight
| Fieldwork | Added | Pollster | Result | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-08-31 | 3d ago | CNN/SSRS ↗ | D+13.0D 52% · R 39% | 880 LV |
| from 2026-06-23 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗Fox News | D+11.0D 53% · R 42% | 1,003 RV | |
| from 2026-06-19 | The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | D+15.8D 55.38% · R 39.62% | 608 LV |
How the candidate lead was built
Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.
The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded. This is a modeled partisan coordinate.
Hannah Pingree leads Bobby Charles by 12.7 points (forecast share difference). The named candidate forecast also accounts for the field and election rules; its lead is a separate quantity from the partisan coordinate above.
The two-party D-versus-R coordinate, step by step
The walk above decomposes the published candidate lead. The model also carries a latent Democrat-minus-Republican coordinate, which is the quantity chamber seat and control arithmetic runs on. It is shown here at the same steps, as a secondary reading — it is not this race’s published forecast margin.
| After this step | D−R coordinate |
|---|---|
| Fundamentals | D+9.9 |
| National environment | D+11.0 |
| Campaign finance | D+11.0 |
| This race’s polls | D+10.6 |
| Expert ratings | D+10.6 |
| Election rules & guards | D+10.7 |
| Historical calibration | D+13.1 |
| The candidate field | D+13.1 |
All calculations & sources
Fundamentals +8.568 points
What the fitted structural model contributes to the gap between the leader and the runner-up, before any of this cycle’s evidence.
Historical calibration +2.090 points
The calibration term fitted on past cycles, carried onto this gap.
The candidate field +1.319 points
What the field itself contributes: the third principals on the ballot and the election rule, which a two-party coordinate has nowhere to put.
National environment +0.991 points
How much of the national climate reaches this race’s leader-versus-runner-up gap.
Election rules & guards +0.068 points
Certified election-mechanics terms — ballot rules, guards and locks — as they bear on these two candidates.
This race’s polls −0.378 points
What this race’s admitted polls move the leader-versus-runner-up gap by.
These are the fitted model’s named contributions to the partisan coordinate, before the candidate-field calculation.
| Named factor | Contribution |
|---|---|
| FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race. | +9.89 |
| Historical calibrationThe House lane's calibration against certified past cycles. | +2.41 |
| National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin. | +1.14 |
| This race's pollsAdmitted head-to-head polls of this race, recency- and quality-weighted. | −0.44 |
| Structural terrain safeguardA bounded pull toward presidential terrain in heavily partisan states. | +0.08 |
| Other factors | 0.00 |
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 658,212
- Forecast turnout
- 57.7% of the voting-eligible population
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+7.1
Statewide, 58.4% of the voting-eligible population is projected to cast a ballot; the lower figure above is the share projected to vote in this race.
Population profile Select a measure for its source and denominator
U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗
Coverage
2 stories · 2 quotes
- "On this solemn anniversary, I join Maine people in pausing to remember the nearly 3,000 souls taken from us that day—including six individuals from Maine—and those who lost their lives from the aftereffects of the attacks," Gov. Janet Mills said in a statement. mainemorningstar.com/2026/09/11/r... ↗
Maine Morning Star · Official · 2d ago
curated state newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match · election-topic match - Sept. 10, 2026: Checking in on Maine's gubernatorial contest ↗
Maine Public news · Sep 10
- Drawing on her own experience of being sexually abused as a child, Republican gubernatorial nominee Bobby Charles’ sister, Anita Charles, criticized his record on abortion at a Wednesday press conference in Portland.
mainemorningstar.com/2026/09/09/b... ↗
Maine Morning Star · Official · 4d ago
curated state newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match - GOP Governor Candidate Plans to Ask for ICE Agents at Polling Places ↗
NOTUS · Aug 26