Maine · Governor
Hannah Pingree is heavily favored to win. Projected candidate margin: Hannah Pingree over Bobby Charles by 10.3 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: a third candidate is on the ballot beside the Democrat and the Republican, so the forecast is published per candidate rather than as a two-party margin.
Show all others (1)
Official ballot sources: Rick Bennett (checked 2026-08-31).
Under each share, its likely range (80 in 100 simulations)
Background
Mills term-limited; blue-leaning open seat.
Forecast history
Latest reading · Oct 28 · first published Oct 6 · Lead between the top two candidates, in points of all votes. Methodology
About this series
Reconstructed with the current model Aug 1 – Oct 5; published readings Oct 6 – Oct 28. Each reconstructed day is the current model on that day’s own inputs, not a forecast published then. Corrections are dated in the changelog.
Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.
CTMM 2.2 readings for 2026-09-16, 2026-09-17, 2026-09-18 were computed after the fact with each day's available inputs: no edition was issued on those days. Not an issued forecast.
Data table
| Date | Lead | Chance | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | D+10.3 | Hannah Pingree win 94.1% | Published forecast |
| Oct 27 | D+10.1 | Hannah Pingree win 93.8% | Published forecast |
| Oct 26 | D+11.1 | Hannah Pingree win 95.3% | Published forecast |
| Oct 25 | D+11.1 | Hannah Pingree win 95.2% | Published forecast |
| Oct 24 | D+11.1 | Hannah Pingree win 95.3% | Published forecast |
| Oct 23 | D+11.1 | Hannah Pingree win 95.2% | Published forecast |
| Oct 22 | D+11.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Published forecast |
| Oct 21 | D+11.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Published forecast |
| Oct 20 | D+11.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Published forecast |
| Oct 19 | D+11.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Published forecast |
| Oct 18 | D+11.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Published forecast |
| Oct 17 | D+11.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Published forecast |
| Oct 16 | D+11.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Published forecast |
| Oct 15 | D+11.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Published forecast |
| Oct 14 | D+11.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Published forecast |
| Oct 13 | D+11.4 | Hannah Pingree win 95.5% | Published forecast |
| Oct 12 | D+11.4 | Hannah Pingree win 95.5% | Published forecast |
| Oct 11 | D+11.4 | Hannah Pingree win 95.5% | Published forecast |
| Oct 10 | D+11.4 | Hannah Pingree win 95.5% | Published forecast |
| Oct 9 | D+11.4 | Hannah Pingree win 95.5% | Published forecast |
| Oct 8 | D+11.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.3% | Published forecast |
| Oct 7 | D+11.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.3% | Published forecast |
| Oct 6 | D+11.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.3% | Published forecast |
| Oct 5 | D+11.2 | Hannah Pingree win 95.3% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Oct 4 | D+11.2 | Hannah Pingree win 95.3% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Oct 3 | D+11.2 | Hannah Pingree win 95.3% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Oct 2 | D+11.2 | Hannah Pingree win 95.3% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Oct 1 | D+11.2 | Hannah Pingree win 95.2% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 30 | D+10.9 | Hannah Pingree win 94.9% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 29 | D+11.5 | Hannah Pingree win 95.6% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 28 | D+11.5 | Hannah Pingree win 95.6% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 27 | D+11.5 | Hannah Pingree win 95.6% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 26 | D+11.5 | Hannah Pingree win 95.7% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 25 | D+11.5 | Hannah Pingree win 95.6% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 24 | D+11.2 | Hannah Pingree win 95.2% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 23 | D+12.4 | Hannah Pingree win 96.2% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 22 | D+12.4 | Hannah Pingree win 96.2% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 21 | D+12.4 | Hannah Pingree win 96.2% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 20 | D+12.4 | Hannah Pingree win 96.2% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 19 | D+12.4 | Hannah Pingree win 96.2% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 18 | D+12.4 | Hannah Pingree win 96.2% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 17 | D+12.4 | Hannah Pingree win 96.2% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 16 | D+12.4 | Hannah Pingree win 96.0% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 15 | D+12.4 | Hannah Pingree win 96.0% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 14 | D+12.4 | Hannah Pingree win 96.0% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 13 | D+12.4 | Hannah Pingree win 96.0% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 12 | D+12.4 | Hannah Pingree win 96.0% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 11 | D+12.4 | Hannah Pingree win 96.0% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 10 | D+12.4 | Hannah Pingree win 96.0% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 9 | D+12.9 | Hannah Pingree win 96.3% | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 8 | D+12.9 | Hannah Pingree win 96.0% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 7 | D+12.9 | Hannah Pingree win 96.0% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 6 | D+12.9 | Hannah Pingree win 96.1% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 5 | D+12.9 | Hannah Pingree win 96.0% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 4 | D+12.9 | Hannah Pingree win 96.0% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 3 | D+12.9 | Hannah Pingree win 96.0% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 2 | D+12.9 | Hannah Pingree win 95.9% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 1 | D+12.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.5% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 31 | D+12.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.5% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 30 | D+12.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 29 | D+12.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 28 | D+12.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.5% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 27 | D+12.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.5% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 26 | D+12.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.5% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 25 | D+12.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 24 | D+12.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.5% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 23 | D+12.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.5% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 22 | D+12.3 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 21 | D+12.5 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 20 | D+12.5 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 19 | D+12.5 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 18 | D+12.5 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 17 | D+12.5 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 16 | D+12.5 | Hannah Pingree win 95.4% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 15 | D+12.4 | Hannah Pingree win 95.3% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 14 | D+12.4 | Hannah Pingree win 95.3% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 13 | D+12.4 | Hannah Pingree win 95.3% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 12 | D+12.4 | Hannah Pingree win 95.3% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 11 | D+13.3 | Hannah Pingree win 96.1% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 10 | D+13.3 | Hannah Pingree win 96.1% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 9 | D+13.3 | Hannah Pingree win 96.1% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 8 | D+13.3 | Hannah Pingree win 96.1% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 7 | D+13.3 | Hannah Pingree win 96.1% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 6 | D+13.3 | Hannah Pingree win 96.1% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 5 | D+13.3 | Hannah Pingree win 96.1% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 4 | D+13.3 | Hannah Pingree win 96.1% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 3 | D+13.3 | Hannah Pingree win 96.1% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 2 | D+13.3 | Hannah Pingree win 96.1% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 1 | D+13.3 | Hannah Pingree win 96.1% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
The polls
Poll average D+10.7A poll’s weight halves every 60 days and grows with its sample. Each pollster counts once, at its best release. Every poll counts at its published margin, sponsored or not.In governor races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which leaves the average it reads the same for this race. It then applies a fitted correction of 2.5 points toward Republicans for governor races, measured from past polling error, before blending it with its other evidence.20 recorded polls · 18 in the poll average
| Fieldwork | Added | Pollster | Result | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-10-16 | 1d ago | Echelon Insights ↗ | D+13.0D 51% · R 38% | 413 LV |
| from 2026-10-22 | 2d ago | Marist University ↗ | EVEND 44% · R 44% | 1,449 LV |
| from 2026-10-16 | 6d ago | Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗ | D+10.0D 49% · R 39% | 1,514 LV |
| — | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchNot in the average | not published in this edition | 1,514 | |
| from 2026-10-08 | Suffolk University ↗ | D+11.0D 49% · R 38% | 500 LV | |
| from 2026-09-30 | The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government ↗ | D+13.0D 49% · R 36% | 800 LV | |
| from 2026-10-01 | Marist University ↗ | D+12.0D 52% · R 40% | 1,505 RV | |
| from 2026-09-28 | co/efficient ↗ | D+9.0D 47% · R 38% | 1,240 LV |
How the forecast uses these polls
The forecast’s numbers for this race start from the plain average of the 15 polls above that named every candidate, the ones that named every candidate. Each poll counts the same. Newer and larger polls get no extra weight, nothing is adjusted for who paid for a poll, and the average is not blended with past results, the national mood or fundraising.
This edition of the forecast does not publish each candidate’s share in these polls or the average it took from them. The polls’ own figures are in the full list of this race’s polls.
How the Democrat-versus-Republican estimate was built
These steps are not where the numbers at the top of this page come from. In this race the candidates’ numbers start from the polls that named every candidate, listed under “The polls”. The steps below build the forecast’s Democrat-versus-Republican estimate for the race, which here supplies the range of uncertainty around those numbers, not their center.
Tap an input for its calculation and source.
Displayed values are rounded. This is a modeled partisan coordinate.
Hannah Pingree leads Bobby Charles by 10.3 points (forecast share difference). The named candidate forecast also accounts for the field and election rules; its lead is a separate quantity from the partisan coordinate above.
All calculations & sources
How this state voted, 2024 +6.940 points
The state's presidential margin in 2024 as a share of all votes cast, from our own county sums — the same measurement the model's statewide terrain center is built from. Every pull below is measured from here, not from EVEN, which is why a landslide seat's listed pulls are small numbers and still land where the forecast does.
- 2024 presidential result for this state, as a share of all votes cast, from Call the Map's own county sums.
- Same source as Act I's 2024-president reference mark, so the origin lands on it.
Fitted model, above the terrain shown +2.945 points
What the fitted model adds on top of the starting terrain above — incumbency, past results, campaign finance and the other fitted terms — measured from that terrain rather than from EVEN. It is a comparison with the starting point already shown, not a separate input. The source detail lists the variables the fit uses.
- Fitted baseline 9.885 minus starting point 6.940 = 2.945 points.
- Fitted intercept: -6.136 points.
- 2010 White population share used by the frozen historical fit: observed input 95.210. -0.503 × ((95.210 − 77.922) / 12.864) = -0.675 points.
- gov_midterm_wh: observed input -1.000. -0.987 × ((-1.000 − 0.336) / 0.739) = 1.785 points.
- 2024 presidential lean relative to the national result: observed input 8.589. 4.163 × ((8.589 − -4.415) / 20.258) = 2.672 points.
- Previous governor election margin: observed input 13.240. 1.755 × ((13.240 − -3.131) / 19.227) = 1.495 points.
- gov_inc_running_signed: observed input 0.000. 2.531 × ((0.000 − -0.120) / 0.708) = 0.428 points.
- gov_inc_tenure_signed: observed input 0.000. 3.340 × ((0.000 − -0.143) / 0.902) = 0.529 points.
- The displayed arithmetic is rounded; the fitted terms use full precision. The intercept plus these five terms gives the non-ratings baseline.
- No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.
- Certified 2024 presidential baseline: state D+7.1, national R+1.5; subtracting the national margin gives relative lean +8.6. Source: FEC compilation of certified state results.
Historical error calibration +2.041 points
A prior-election residual correction, when an admitted model publishes one.
- The forecast’s calibration against past governor results. The recorded contribution is +2.0.
National environment +1.832 points
The contribution to this race’s margin, not the national polling margin itself. The race’s loading, reference level and polling blend determine how much of the national climate reaches its final forecast.
- The national environment in this edition is D+8.4. This row is its contribution to the race’s prior, not a claim that the country is D+1.8.
- This step’s recorded contribution to the margin is +1.8.
- The elasticity is fitted on the pooled panel of contested governor races (2010–2024) with cycle-clustered standard errors; it is a measured response to the national environment, not a judgment floor.
This race’s polls −3.447 points
What this race’s own recent polling adds beyond its prior. The forecast weights each poll for recency and sample size and counts each pollster once; the weights listed here are those of the polls’ own average.
- Marist University (2026-10-25, n=1,449): ±0.0 · weight 0.97 in the poll average
- Echelon Insights (2026-10-23, n=413): D+13.0 · weight 0.52 in the poll average
- Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (2026-10-20, n=1,514): D+10.0 · weight 0.91 in the poll average
- Suffolk University (2026-10-11, n=500): D+11.0 · weight 0.50 in the poll average
- The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government (2026-10-05, n=800): D+13.0 · weight 0.59 in the poll average
- Marist University (2026-10-04, n=1,505): D+12.0 · weight 0.76 in the poll average
- … and 12 more below.
- Poll average D+10.7, from 18 polls · 18 recorded polls. This is the polls’ own average, each poll at its published margin, the figure this page’s poll summary shows. In governor races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which leaves the average it reads the same for this race. It then applies a fitted correction of 2.5 points toward Republicans for governor races, measured from past polling error, before blending it with its other evidence. The forecast gives the polls 98% of the weight against its structural prior for this race, which moves the margin 3.4 points toward Republicans from where it stood before the polls. Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-25 (3 days old).
These are the fitted model’s named contributions to the partisan coordinate, before the candidate-field calculation.
| Named factor | Contribution |
|---|---|
| FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race. | +9.89 |
| This race's pollsAdmitted head-to-head polls of this race, recency- and quality-weighted. | −3.45 |
| Historical calibrationThe House lane's calibration against certified past cycles. | +2.04 |
| National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin. | +1.83 |
| Other factors | 0.00 |
Where the votes are
The map of this race loads here.
Race context
- Turnout, 2018 midterm
- 59.6% 646,013 ballots
- Turnout, 2022 midterm
- 60.9% 680,909 ballots
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+7.1between the two parties
Turnout is ballots cast statewide as a share of the voting-eligible population. Source: University of Florida Election Lab ↗
Population profile
U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗
Coverage
4 quotes
- Maine students, if able to vote, would send Democrat Hannah Pingree to the Blaine House, and would elect Troy Jackson, Chellie Pingree and Paul LePage to Congress, according to results from the mock election organized by the Secretary of State’s Office. ↗
States Newsroom · Official · 6h ago
curated newsroom network · recent Bluesky post · named-race match · election-topic match - Maine students, if able to vote, would send Democrat Hannah Pingree to the Blaine House, and would elect Troy Jackson, Chellie Pingree and Paul LePage to Congress, according to results from the mock election organized by the Secretary of State’s Office. mainemorningstar.com/2026/10/28/m... ↗
Maine Morning Star · Official · 10h ago
curated state newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match · election-topic match - Rising costs of healthcare, gas and groceries during President Donald Trump’s second term have put Republicans on defense, not only in Washington, but in statehouse and gubernatorial races across the country. | via @stateline.org mainemorningstar.com/2026/10/27/r... ↗
Maine Morning Star · Official · 1d ago
curated state newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match - The Maine Ethics Commission on Monday fined Republican gubernatorial candidate Bobby Charles more than $22,000 for violating state campaign finance laws. mainemorningstar.com/2026/10/26/m... ↗
Maine Morning Star · Official · 2d ago
curated state newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match · election-topic match
Forecast as of October 28, 2026: Call the Map currently has Hannah Pingree ahead of Bobby Charles by 10.3 points, with a 94 in 100 chance to win. This is an open seat. That result would keep the seat with Democrats. The forecast reads 15 polls that named every candidate in this race, listed under “The polls”. The current poll average is D+10.7; 18 public polls are recorded.