South Dakota Senate polls 2026
Brian Bengs (I) vs Mike Rounds (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 28, 2026R+9.8today's poll average of 13 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- not counted · shown, never moves the line
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
- left of the break: 1 earlier poll, not on the time axis
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | R+9.8 | R+9.8 |
| Oct 21–Oct 27, 2026 | R+9.8 | R+9.8 |
| Oct 19–Oct 20, 2026 | R+10.2 | R+9.8 |
| Oct 16–Oct 18, 2026 | R+7.6 | R+9.6 to R+9.8 |
| Oct 14–Oct 15, 2026 | R+6.3 | R+9.2 to R+9.4 |
| Oct 8–Oct 13, 2026 | R+3.0 | R+5.4 to R+8.8 |
| Sep 27–Oct 7, 2026 | R+4.1 | R+3.9 to R+4.8 |
| Sep 9–Sep 26, 2026 | R+3.4 | R+3.4 to R+4.0 |
| Aug 30–Sep 8, 2026 | R+3.5 | R+2.9 to R+3.3 |
| Aug 17–Aug 29, 2026 | R+11.0 | R+10.8 to R+3.3 |
| Jul 9–Aug 16, 2026 | R+20.7 | R+20.7 to R+11.0 |
| May 30–Jul 8, 2026 | R+17.7 | R+17.7 to R+20.7 |
| Feb 18–May 29, 2026 | R+12.3 | R+12.3 to R+17.7 |
| Nov 14–Feb 17, 2026 | R+13.0 | R+13.0 to R+12.3 |
In Senate races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at a quarter of its weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+11.3.
Every poll on file · 16
newest added first13 in the poll average · 3 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson CollegeGeneral · Senate | 803 LV | R+8.0Mike Rounds 50Brian Bengs 42 | 6d ago | source not read by the model | Poll release | |
| ●Quantus InsightsGeneral | 657 LV | R+22.1Mike Rounds 59.4Brian Bengs 37.3Someone else 1.7Don't know 1.6 | 6d ago | 0.63 | News coverage | |
| Mason-DixonGeneral · Senate | 500 LV | R+19.0Mike Rounds 56Brian Bengs 37 | 6d ago | source not read by the model | Poll release | |
| ●Emerson CollegeGeneral | 803 LV | R+8.0Mike Rounds 54Brian Bengs 46 | 6d ago | 0.71 | Poll release | |
| ●Concord Public Opinion PartnersGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 400 LV | I+1.0Brian Bengs 43Mike Rounds 42Don't know 10Someone else 5 | 0.43 | Poll document | ||
| ●Public Opinion StrategiesGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 500 LV | R+17.0Mike Rounds 54Brian Bengs 37 | 0.53 | Pollster post | ||
| ●Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.General | 500 LV | R+19.0Mike Rounds 56Brian Bengs 37Don't know 6 | 0.52 | Poll release | ||
| ●Lake Research PartnersGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | I+10.0Brian Bengs 51Mike Rounds 41Don't know 4 | 0.31 | Pollster post | ||
| ●Zenith ResearchGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | 500 LV | R+6.0Mike Rounds 53Brian Bengs 47 | 0.43 | Poll document | ||
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | 629 RV | R+3.0Mike Rounds 45Brian Bengs 42Don't know 13 | 0.39 | Pollster post | ||
| ●Impact ResearchGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | 500 LV | TiedMike Rounds 44Brian Bengs 44Don't know 12 | 0.26 | Poll document | ||
| ●Public Opinion StrategiesGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 500 LV | R+23.0Mike Rounds 56Brian Bengs 33 | 0.17 | Poll release |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.