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Forecast6 days out
Race polling · SEN-TX

Texas Senate polls 2026

James Talarico (D) vs Ken Paxton (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageD+2.4the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls8080 on file · 64 in the poll average · 16 not counted
Latest field dateOct 26Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-26 (2 days old)
EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 28, 2026D+2.4today's poll average of 64 polls

R+5EvenD+5D+10Oct ’25Jan ’26AprJulOct
  • poll in the average · area is its weight
  • not counted · shown, never moves the line
  • trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table
DaysAverage as it stoodTrend line
Oct 28, 2026D+2.4D+2.4
Oct 26–Oct 27, 2026D+2.4D+2.4
Oct 21–Oct 25, 2026D+2.2D+2.3 to D+2.4
Oct 20, 2026D+2.2D+2.3
Oct 19, 2026D+2.2D+2.3
Oct 18, 2026D+2.3D+2.2
Oct 16–Oct 17, 2026D+2.2D+2.2
Oct 15, 2026D+2.2D+2.2
Oct 14, 2026D+2.1D+2.2
Oct 13, 2026D+2.2D+2.2
Oct 11–Oct 12, 2026D+2.0D+2.2
Oct 8–Oct 10, 2026D+2.2D+2.2
Oct 5–Oct 7, 2026D+2.1D+2.1
Sep 30–Oct 4, 2026D+2.0D+2.1
Sep 29, 2026D+1.9D+2.1
Sep 28, 2026D+1.9D+2.0
Sep 27, 2026D+2.0D+2.0
Sep 26, 2026D+2.3D+2.0
Sep 24–Sep 25, 2026D+2.4D+2.0
Sep 22–Sep 23, 2026D+2.6D+2.1
Sep 20–Sep 21, 2026D+2.5D+2.2 to D+2.1
Sep 19, 2026D+2.2D+2.2
Sep 17–Sep 18, 2026D+2.2D+2.3 to D+2.2
Sep 14–Sep 16, 2026D+2.3D+2.4 to D+2.3
Sep 11–Sep 13, 2026D+2.3D+2.4
Sep 10, 2026D+2.2D+2.4
Sep 9, 2026D+2.1D+2.4
Sep 4–Sep 8, 2026D+2.2D+2.3
Sep 1–Sep 3, 2026D+2.1D+2.2 to D+2.3
Aug 26–Aug 31, 2026D+1.9D+2.0 to D+2.2
Aug 24–Aug 25, 2026D+2.1D+2.0
Aug 13–Aug 23, 2026D+1.9D+1.9 to D+2.0
Aug 10–Aug 12, 2026D+1.8D+1.9
Jul 31–Aug 9, 2026D+2.2D+2.2 to D+1.9
Jul 30, 2026D+2.1D+2.2
Jul 27–Jul 29, 2026D+1.8D+2.2
Jul 17–Jul 26, 2026D+1.6D+1.7 to D+2.1
Jun 28–Jul 16, 2026D+1.2D+1.2 to D+1.6
Jun 27, 2026D+1.0D+1.2
Jun 12–Jun 26, 2026D+1.2D+1.2
Jun 4–Jun 11, 2026D+1.8D+1.4 to D+1.2
May 23–Jun 3, 2026D+3.1D+3.0 to D+1.4
May 6–May 22, 2026D+2.5D+2.5 to D+3.0
Apr 20–May 5, 2026D+3.2D+3.2 to D+2.5
Mar 17–Apr 19, 2026D+0.1D+0.1 to D+3.2
Mar 5–Mar 16, 2026R+0.3R+0.3 to D+0.1
Jan 31–Mar 4, 2026R+1.1R+1.1 to R+0.3
Jan 12–Jan 30, 2026R+0.6R+0.6 to R+1.1
Nov 17–Jan 11, 2026R+1.1R+1.1 to R+0.6
Oct 1–Nov 16, 2025R+2.1R+2.1 to R+1.1
Sep 24–Sep 30, 2025R+1.0R+1.7 to R+2.1

In Senate races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at a quarter of its weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+2.6.

Every poll on file · 80

newest added first

64 in the poll average · 16 shown, not counted · 42 primary polls on file, not listed here

PollsterFieldedSampleResultAddedWeightSource
●YouGov BlueGeneral1,000 LVD+8.0James Talarico 51Ken Paxton 43Don't know 510h ago0.84Poll release
●YouGovGeneral1,000 RVD+5.0James Talarico 50Ken Paxton 45Don't know 5Someone else 1Would not vote 01d ago0.79Poll release
●Cor StrategiesGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan1,409 LVD+4.0James Talarico 44Ken Paxton 40Don't know 161d ago0.86News coverage
●Rasmussen ReportsGeneral965 LVTiedJames Talarico 45Ken Paxton 455d ago0.78Poll release
●VoteHub/VerasightGeneral · Senate601 LVD+2.4James Talarico 47.6Ken Paxton 45.2Ted Brown 1.45d ago0.61Poll release
●Slingshot StrategiesGeneral · Senate969 LVD+4.0James Talarico 51Ken Paxton 47Ted Brown 26d ago0.75Pollster post
VerasightGeneral601 RVD+0.8James Talarico 46.1Ken Paxton 45.3Ted Brown 1.56d agoanother release of a counted pollPoll document
●Emerson CollegeGeneral1,000 LVD+1.5James Talarico 49.37Ken Paxton 47.83Ted Brown 2.86d ago0.78Poll release
●Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchGeneral1,398 LVTiedKen Paxton 49James Talarico 49Don't know 1Would not vote 0Someone else 0+1 other release6d ago0.90News coverage
●PollfinityGeneral · Senate278 LVD+5.0James Talarico 48Ken Paxton 43Ted Brown 26d ago0.40Poll release
●New River Strategies/GS Strategy GroupGeneral934 LVD+5.0James Talarico 49Ken Paxton 44Don't know 4Ted Brown 36d ago0.70Poll release
●ActiVoteGeneral · Senate400 LVD+2.0James Talarico 51Ken Paxton 497d ago0.50Poll release

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.