Texas Senate polls
James Talarico (D) vs Ken Paxton (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateD+2.4same figure as the race page
Polls3232 recorded polls · 31 eligible for the aggregate · 31 with positive weight
Latest field dateSep 13Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-13 (0 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- weighted running average · recent, larger and non-partisan polls count more · gaps where polls run thin
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 50
newest first40 in the aggregate · 10 shown, not counted · 43 primary polls on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●SoCal StrategiesGeneral | 649 LV | James Talarico 50Ken Paxton 45Don't know 5 | 1h ago | 0.719 | Pollster post | |
| ●InsiderAdvantageGeneral · Senate | 1,200 LV | James Talarico 47.1Ken Paxton 45.6Ted Brown 2.2+1 other release | 2d ago | 0.828 | Poll release | |
| ●YouGovGeneral · Senate | 1,000 RV | James Talarico 48Ken Paxton 43+1 other release | 3d ago | 0.622 | Poll release | |
| ●Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchGeneral · Senate | 895 LV | James Talarico 48Ken Paxton 44+1 other release | 3d ago | 0.452 | Poll release | |
| ●Overton InsightsGeneral | 1,167 LV | Ken Paxton 50James Talarico 50 | 0.423 | Poll document | ||
| ●Slingshot StrategiesGeneral · Senate | 1,000 LV | James Talarico 48Ken Paxton 42Ted Brown 1+1 other release | 0.367 | Pollster post | ||
| The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGovGeneral · Senate | 1,218 RV | James Talarico 42Ken Paxton 39Ted Brown 3 | not in the aggregate | Poll release | ||
| ●YouGovGeneral | 1,200 RV | James Talarico 42Ken Paxton 39Don't know 14Ted Brown 3Someone else 1 | 0.329 | Poll release | ||
| ●Emerson CollegeGeneral · Senate | 1,000 LV | Ken Paxton 47James Talarico 46+1 other release | 0.293 | Poll release | ||
| ●ReconMR/Siena UniversityGeneral · Senate | 619 LV | James Talarico 47Ken Paxton 43 | 0.126 | Poll document | ||
| ●Siena UniversityGeneral | 619 LV | James Talarico 47Ken Paxton 43Don't know 6Someone else 3Would not vote 1 | 0.126 | Poll document | ||
| ●YouGov BlueGeneral | 1,001 LV | James Talarico 48Ken Paxton 45+1 other release | 0.166 | Poll release |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.