Texas Governor polls 2026
Gina Hinojosa (D) vs Greg Abbott (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageR+2.5the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls6161 on file · 54 in the poll average · 7 not counted
Latest field dateOct 26Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-26 (2 days old)
EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 28, 2026R+2.5today's poll average of 54 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- not counted · shown, never moves the line
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | R+2.5 | R+2.5 |
| Oct 26–Oct 27, 2026 | R+2.5 | R+2.5 |
| Oct 21–Oct 25, 2026 | R+2.8 | R+2.6 to R+2.5 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | R+2.8 | R+2.6 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | R+2.8 | R+2.7 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | R+2.7 | R+2.7 |
| Oct 16–Oct 17, 2026 | R+2.8 | R+2.7 |
| Oct 14–Oct 15, 2026 | R+2.8 | R+2.7 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | R+2.8 | R+2.8 |
| Oct 11–Oct 12, 2026 | R+2.8 | R+2.8 |
| Oct 8–Oct 10, 2026 | R+2.6 | R+2.8 |
| Oct 5–Oct 7, 2026 | R+2.8 | R+2.9 to R+2.8 |
| Sep 30–Oct 4, 2026 | R+3.0 | R+2.9 |
| Sep 28–Sep 29, 2026 | R+3.3 | R+2.9 |
| Sep 26–Sep 27, 2026 | R+3.2 | R+3.0 |
| Sep 24–Sep 25, 2026 | R+3.1 | R+3.1 to R+3.0 |
| Sep 22–Sep 23, 2026 | R+2.9 | R+3.1 |
| Sep 20–Sep 21, 2026 | R+2.9 | R+3.1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | R+3.6 | R+3.1 |
| Sep 14–Sep 18, 2026 | R+3.6 | R+3.2 to R+3.1 |
| Sep 11–Sep 13, 2026 | R+3.6 | R+3.3 to R+3.2 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | R+4.0 | R+3.4 |
| Sep 4–Sep 9, 2026 | R+3.7 | R+3.7 to R+3.5 |
| Sep 1–Sep 3, 2026 | R+3.9 | R+3.7 |
| Aug 26–Aug 31, 2026 | R+4.0 | R+3.9 to R+3.7 |
| Aug 24–Aug 25, 2026 | R+4.2 | R+3.9 |
| Aug 13–Aug 23, 2026 | R+4.1 | R+4.1 to R+4.0 |
| Aug 10–Aug 12, 2026 | R+4.0 | R+4.0 to R+4.1 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | R+4.1 | R+4.0 |
| Jul 31–Aug 8, 2026 | R+4.5 | R+4.4 to R+4.0 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | R+4.7 | R+4.4 |
| Jul 27–Jul 29, 2026 | R+5.0 | R+4.6 to R+4.5 |
| Jul 17–Jul 26, 2026 | R+5.9 | R+5.7 to R+4.6 |
| Jun 27–Jul 16, 2026 | R+6.1 | R+6.1 to R+5.8 |
| Jun 12–Jun 26, 2026 | R+6.1 | R+6.1 |
| Jun 4–Jun 11, 2026 | R+6.0 | R+6.0 to R+6.1 |
| May 28–Jun 3, 2026 | R+5.6 | R+5.8 to R+6.0 |
| May 23–May 27, 2026 | R+5.6 | R+5.6 to R+5.8 |
| May 6–May 22, 2026 | R+6.0 | R+6.0 to R+5.6 |
| Apr 20–May 5, 2026 | R+6.0 | R+6.0 |
| Feb 22–Apr 19, 2026 | R+6.5 | R+6.5 to R+6.0 |
| Feb 3–Feb 21, 2026 | R+5.9 | R+5.9 to R+6.5 |
| Jan 31–Feb 2, 2026 | R+7.4 | R+6.1 to R+5.9 |
| Jan 12–Jan 30, 2026 | R+7.9 | R+7.9 to R+6.1 |
In governor races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which leaves the average it reads the same for this race.
Every poll on file · 61
newest added first54 in the poll average · 7 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●YouGov BlueGeneral | 1,000 LV | D+3.0Gina Hinojosa 49Greg Abbott 46 | 11h ago | 0.84 | Poll release | |
| ●YouGovGeneral | 1,000 RV | R+2.0Greg Abbott 48Gina Hinojosa 46Don't know 5Someone else 1Would not vote 0 | 1d ago | 0.79 | Poll release | |
| ●VoteHub/VerasightGeneral · Governor | 601 LV | R+1.3Greg Abbott 47.7Gina Hinojosa 46.4Pat Dixon 0.7 | 5d ago | 0.61 | Poll release | |
| ●Slingshot StrategiesGeneral · Governor | 969 LV | R+3.0Greg Abbott 51Gina Hinojosa 48Pat Dixon 1 | 6d ago | 0.75 | Pollster post | |
| VerasightGeneral | 601 RV | R+2.7Greg Abbott 47.6Gina Hinojosa 44.9Pat Dixon 0.9 | 6d ago | another release of a counted poll | Poll document | |
| ●Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchGeneral | 1,398 LV | R+5.0Greg Abbott 52Gina Hinojosa 47Someone else 1Don't know 1Would not vote 0+1 other release | 6d ago | 0.90 | News coverage | |
| ●Emerson CollegeGeneral | 1,000 LV | R+4.5Greg Abbott 51.07Gina Hinojosa 46.59Pat Dixon 2.34 | 6d ago | 0.78 | Poll release | |
| ●PollfinityGeneral · Governor | 278 LV | D+1.0Gina Hinojosa 46Greg Abbott 45Pat Dixon 2 | 6d ago | 0.40 | Poll release | |
| ●New River Strategies/GS Strategy GroupGeneral | 934 LV | R+2.0Greg Abbott 48Gina Hinojosa 46Don't know 3Pat Dixon 3 | 6d ago | 0.70 | Poll release | |
| ●ActiVoteGeneral · Governor | 400 LV | R+5.0Greg Abbott 52.5Gina Hinojosa 47.5 | 7d ago | 0.50 | Poll release | |
| ●University of Houston Hobby School of Public AffairsGeneral | 2,000 LV | R+3.0Greg Abbott 49Gina Hinojosa 46Don't know 3Pat Dixon 2 | 0.85 | Poll release | ||
| ●YouGovGeneral | 1,460 LV | R+4.0Greg Abbott 52Gina Hinojosa 48Don't know 0Someone else 0 | 0.87 | News coverage |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.