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FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
Race polling · GOV-TX

Texas Governor polls

Gina Hinojosa (D) vs Greg Abbott (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Adjusted aggregateR+4.6same figure as the race page
Polls2929 recorded polls · 29 eligible for the aggregate · 29 with positive weight
Latest field dateSep 13Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-13 (0 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition

The polls the model reads

hover, tap or Tab to any poll
last 30 daysR+15R+10R+5EVEND+5Mar ’26MayJulSep
  • counted poll · area is its model weight
  • weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
  • weighted running average · recent, larger and non-partisan polls count more · gaps where polls run thin
  • published average
  • 30 days before this edition

Every poll on file · 39

newest first

37 in the aggregate · 2 shown, not counted

PollsterFieldedAddedSampleResultWeightSource
SoCal StrategiesGeneral649 LVGreg Abbott 52Gina Hinojosa 44Don't know 31h ago0.719Pollster post
YouGovGeneral · Governor1,000 RVGreg Abbott 47Gina Hinojosa 47+1 other release3d ago0.622Poll release
Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchGeneral · Governor895 LVGreg Abbott 49Gina Hinojosa 46+1 other release3d ago0.452Poll release
Overton InsightsGeneral1,167 LVGreg Abbott 51.2Gina Hinojosa 48.80.423Poll document
Slingshot StrategiesGeneral · Governor1,000 LVGreg Abbott 49Gina Hinojosa 42Pat Dixon 1Jenn Mack Raphoon 1+1 other release0.367Pollster post
The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGovGeneral · Governor1,218 RVGreg Abbott 45Gina Hinojosa 40Pat Dixon 3not in the aggregatePoll release
YouGovGeneral1,200 RVGreg Abbott 45Gina Hinojosa 40Don't know 10Pat Dixon 3Someone else 20.329Poll release
Emerson CollegeGeneral · Governor1,000 LVGreg Abbott 49Gina Hinojosa 45+1 other release0.293Poll release
CygnalGeneral · Governor · REP sponsor · REP partisan800 LVGreg Abbott 49Gina Hinojosa 460.202Poll document
ReconMR/Siena UniversityGeneral · Governor619 LVGreg Abbott 46Gina Hinojosa 45Pat Dixon 00.126Poll document
GBAOGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan1,000 LVGreg Abbott 49Gina Hinojosa 480.234Pollster post
Siena UniversityGeneral619 LVGreg Abbott 46Gina Hinojosa 45Don't know 5Someone else 3Would not vote 1Pat Dixon 00.126Poll document

Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.