Minnesota Senate polls
Peggy Flanagan (D) vs Michele Tafoya (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateD+4.8same figure as the race page
Polls77 recorded polls · 7 eligible for the aggregate · 7 with positive weight
Latest field dateSep 10Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-10 (3 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 9
newest first7 in the aggregate · 2 shown, not counted · 5 primary polls on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Quantus InsightsGeneral · Senate | 720 LV | Peggy Flanagan 48.2Michele Tafoya 44.4+1 other release | 2d ago | 0.431 | Poll release | |
| ●TIPP InsightsGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 1,192 LV | Peggy Flanagan 43.96Michele Tafoya 41.86Don't know 7.95Marisa Simonetti 2.99Someone else 2.23Rebecca Whiting 1.02+1 other release | 5d ago | 0.913 | News coverage | |
| ●Deep Root AnalyticsGeneral · R sponsor · R partisan | 597 RV | Peggy Flanagan 50Michele Tafoya 45 | 0.233 | no link | ||
| ●SurveyUSAGeneral · Senate | 661 LV | Peggy Flanagan 46Michele Tafoya 41Marisa Simonetti 1Rebecca Whiting 1+1 other release | 0.299 | no link | ||
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.General | 800 LV | Generic Democrat 49Generic Republican 41Don't know 9Someone else 1 | not in the aggregate | Poll release | ||
| ●Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 808 LV | Angie Craig 51Michele Tafoya 44+1 other release | 0.016 | Pollster post | ||
| ●Emerson CollegeGeneral · Senate | 1,000 LV | Peggy Flanagan 47.1Michele Tafoya 40.6+3 other releases | 0.001 | Poll document | ||
| Public Policy PollingGeneral · Senate · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 1,015 LV | Peggy Flanagan 46Rep 44+3 other releases | not in the aggregate | Poll document | ||
| ●Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 604 LV | Angie Craig 49Michele Tafoya 45Don't know 6+1 other release | 0 · not counted | Pollster post |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.