Minnesota Senate polls 2026
Peggy Flanagan (D) vs Michele Tafoya (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 28, 2026D+4.3today's poll average of 19 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- not counted · shown, never moves the line
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
- left of the break: 1 earlier poll, not on the time axis
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | D+4.3 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 26–Oct 27, 2026 | D+4.3 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 22–Oct 25, 2026 | D+3.4 | D+4.1 to D+4.3 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | D+3.4 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 15–Oct 20, 2026 | D+3.5 | D+3.6 to D+4.0 |
| Oct 12–Oct 14, 2026 | D+3.5 | D+3.5 |
| Oct 7–Oct 11, 2026 | D+3.5 | D+3.5 |
| Oct 4–Oct 6, 2026 | D+3.4 | D+3.5 |
| Sep 30–Oct 3, 2026 | D+2.4 | D+3.3 to D+3.4 |
| Sep 29, 2026 | D+2.4 | D+3.2 |
| Sep 15–Sep 28, 2026 | D+2.9 | D+2.9 to D+3.1 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | D+3.4 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 10–Sep 13, 2026 | D+4.0 | D+3.1 to D+2.9 |
| Sep 2–Sep 9, 2026 | D+4.1 | D+4.0 to D+3.2 |
| Aug 18–Sep 1, 2026 | D+5.4 | D+5.4 to D+4.1 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | D+5.7 | D+5.4 |
| May 28–Aug 16, 2026 | D+6.9 | D+6.9 to D+5.4 |
| Feb 8–May 27, 2026 | D+6.5 | D+6.5 to D+6.9 |
In Senate races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at a quarter of its weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+4.6.
Every poll on file · 22
newest added first19 in the poll average · 3 shown, not counted · 5 primary polls on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Victory InsightsGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 1,194 LV | D+3.4Peggy Flanagan 47.8Michele Tafoya 44.4Don't know 5.6Someone else 2.1Would not vote 0.1 | 11h ago | 0.88 | Poll document | |
| ●The New York Times/Siena CollegeGeneral | 752 LV | D+13.9Peggy Flanagan 54.21Michele Tafoya 40.31Don't know 5.26Someone else 0.23 | 18h ago | 0.73 | News coverage | |
| ●Rasmussen ReportsGeneral · R sponsor · R partisan | 1,182 LV | D+3.0Peggy Flanagan 48Michele Tafoya 45 | 6d ago | 0.86 | Poll release | |
| ●Trafalgar GroupGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 1,079 LV | D+3.5Peggy Flanagan 48.1Michele Tafoya 44.6Don't know 5.4Rebecca Whiting 1.1Marisa Simonetti 0.8 | 0.77 | Poll release | ||
| ●SurveyUSAGeneral | 718 LV | D+3.0Peggy Flanagan 45Michele Tafoya 42Don't know 9Rebecca Whiting 2Marisa Simonetti 2 | 0.61 | Poll release | ||
| ●GQRGeneral · Senate · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 800 LV | D+8.0Peggy Flanagan 50Michele Tafoya 42Marisa Simonetti 4Rebecca Whiting 2+1 other release | 0.58 | Pollster post | ||
| ●Big Data PollGeneral | 622 LV | D+2.2Peggy Flanagan 45.8Michele Tafoya 43.6Marisa Simonetti 5.4Rebecca Whiting 5.2 | 0.49 | Poll release | ||
| ●SurveyUSAGeneral | 654 LV | TiedPeggy Flanagan 42Michele Tafoya 42Don't know 12Marisa Simonetti 2Rebecca Whiting 2 | 0.42 | Poll release | ||
| ●Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.General | 800 LV | D+4.0Peggy Flanagan 47Michele Tafoya 43Don't know 9Someone else 0.6 | 0.60 | Poll release | ||
| ●Morning ConsultGeneral | 1,000 RV | D+4.0Peggy Flanagan 45Michele Tafoya 41Don't know 12Someone else 2 | 0.68 | Poll release | ||
| ●Rasmussen ReportsGeneral · R sponsor · R partisan | 856 LV | D+3.0Peggy Flanagan 48Michele Tafoya 45 | 0.62 | Poll release | ||
| ●InsiderAdvantageGeneral | 1,200 LV | D+1.0Peggy Flanagan 46Michele Tafoya 45Don't know 6Rebecca Whiting 2Marisa Simonetti 1 | 0.67 | Poll release |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.