Florida Senate polls 2026
Angie Nixon (D) vs Ashley Moody (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 29, 2026R+6.6today's poll average of 25 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | R+6.6 | R+6.6 |
| Oct 27–Oct 28, 2026 | R+6.6 | R+6.6 |
| Oct 25–Oct 26, 2026 | R+6.6 | R+6.6 |
| Oct 23–Oct 24, 2026 | R+6.6 | R+6.7 to R+6.6 |
| Oct 20–Oct 22, 2026 | R+6.5 | R+6.6 to R+6.7 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | R+6.3 | R+6.6 |
| Oct 15–Oct 18, 2026 | R+6.6 | R+6.6 |
| Oct 10–Oct 14, 2026 | R+6.3 | R+6.5 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | R+6.5 | R+6.4 |
| Oct 7–Oct 8, 2026 | R+6.5 | R+6.4 |
| Oct 5–Oct 6, 2026 | R+6.5 | R+6.4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | R+6.8 | R+6.5 |
| Oct 1–Oct 3, 2026 | R+6.2 | R+6.5 |
| Sep 27–Sep 30, 2026 | R+5.5 | R+6.3 to R+6.5 |
| Sep 21–Sep 26, 2026 | R+5.6 | R+5.8 to R+6.2 |
| Sep 17–Sep 20, 2026 | R+3.8 | R+5.3 to R+5.7 |
| Sep 10–Sep 16, 2026 | R+5.1 | R+4.5 to R+5.2 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | R+4.1 | R+4.6 |
| Jul 17–Sep 8, 2026 | R+9.6 | R+9.6 to R+4.7 |
| Apr 13–Jul 16, 2026 | R+10.8 | R+10.8 to R+9.6 |
| Mar 31–Apr 12, 2026 | R+9.9 | R+9.9 to R+10.8 |
| Mar 2–Mar 30, 2026 | R+8.0 | R+8.0 to R+9.9 |
In Senate races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at a quarter of its weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which leaves the average it reads the same for this race.
Every poll on file · 37
newest added first25 in the poll average · 12 shown, not counted · 1 primary poll on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●St. Pete PollsGeneral | 916 LV | R+4.3Ashley Moody 49Angie Nixon 44.7Don't know 3.7Someone else 2.6 | 1d ago | 0.80 | Poll release | |
| ●The New York Times/Siena CollegeGeneral | 813 LV | R+6.0Ashley Moody 50.35Angie Nixon 44.32Don't know 5.33 | 1d ago | 0.74 | News coverage | |
| ●Echelon InsightsGeneral | 515 LV | R+8.0Ashley Moody 51Angie Nixon 43Don't know 4Neil Gillespie 3Would not vote 0Someone else 0 | 2d ago | 0.58 | Poll release | |
| ●ActiVoteGeneral · Senate | 400 LV | R+6.0Ashley Moody 53Angie Nixon 47 | 2d ago | 0.53 | Poll release | |
| ●RedBox ResearchGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan | 4,832 LV | R+7.0Ashley Moody 50Angie Nixon 43 | 3d ago | 0.93 | Poll release | |
| ●co/efficientGeneral · Senate · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 1,014 LV | R+8.0Ashley Moody 48Angie Nixon 40Neil Gillespie 2+1 other release | 7d ago | 0.78 | Poll release | |
| ●University of North FloridaGeneral | 1,471 LV | R+4.0Ashley Moody 49Angie Nixon 45Don't know 5Someone else 1 | 0.89 | Poll release | ||
| ●YouGovGeneral | 825 RV | R+9.0Generic Republican 51Generic Democrat 42Don't know 7Would not vote 0Someone else 0 | 0.66 | Poll release | ||
| ●ActiVoteGeneral | 400 LV | R+6.2Ashley Moody 53.1Angie Nixon 46.9 | 0.46 | Poll release | ||
| MDWGeneral · Senate | 800 LV | R+6.0Ashley Moody 48Angie Nixon 42 | source not read by the model | Poll release | ||
| ●St. Pete PollsGeneral | 836 LV | R+1.9Ashley Moody 46.8Angie Nixon 44.9Don't know 6Someone else 2.3 | 0.61 | Poll document | ||
| ●Targoz Market ResearchGeneral · Senate | 857 LV | R+10.0Ashley Moody 52Angie Nixon 42+3 other releases | 0.59 | Poll release |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.