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FORECAST50 DAYS OUT
Race polling · SEN-FL

Florida Senate polls

Angie Nixon (D) vs Ashley Moody (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Adjusted aggregateR+3.0same figure as the race page
Polls66 recorded polls · 6 eligible for the aggregate · 6 with positive weight
Latest field dateSep 10Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-10 (4 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition

The polls the model reads

hover, tap or Tab to any poll
last 30 daysR+15R+10R+5EVEND+5Mar ’26AprMayJunJulAugSep
  • counted poll · area is its model weight
  • weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
  • poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
  • published average
  • 30 days before this edition

Every poll on file · 17

newest first

6 in the aggregate · 11 shown, not counted · 1 primary poll on file, not listed here

PollsterFieldedAddedSampleResultWeightSource
Quantus InsightsGeneral · Senate733 LVAshley Moody 50.1Angie Nixon 42.7+1 other release3d ago0.434Poll release
Change ResearchGeneral · Senate1,107 LVAshley Moody 47Angie Nixon 474d ago0.608Poll release
University of North FloridaGeneral · Senate848 LVAshley Moody 50Alexander Vindman 40+2 other releases0.096Poll release
Change ResearchGeneral · Senate · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan1,015 LVAlexander Vindman 46Ashley Moody 46+2 other releasesnot in the aggregatePoll document
McLaughlin & AssociatesGeneral · Senate · REP sponsor · REP partisan800 LVAshley Moody 47Alexander Vindman 40not in the aggregatePoll release
Global Strategy GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan1,000 LVAshley Moody 46Alexander Vindman 43Don't know 12not in the aggregatePoll release
Change ResearchGeneral · Senate2,070 LVAlexander Vindman 47Ashley Moody 45+3 other releasesnot in the aggregatePoll release
Cherry CommunicationsGeneral · Senate · REP sponsor · REP partisan604 LVAshley Moody 48Alexander Vindman 40not in the aggregatePoll release
Stetson UniversityGeneral · Senate848 LVAshley Moody 49Alexander Vindman 42+1 other releasenot in the aggregatePoll release
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchGeneral434 LVAshley Moody 49Alexander Vindman 42Don't know 8Someone else 1+1 other release0.003Poll release
Echelon InsightsGeneral · Senate406 LVAshley Moody 50Alexander Vindman 43+1 other releasenot in the aggregatePoll document
MDW CommunicationsGeneral · Senate1,834 LVAshley Moody 43Alexander Vindman 42+1 other releasenot in the aggregatePoll release

Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.