Race polling · SEN-AK

Alaska Senate polls 2026

Mary Peltola (D) vs Dan Sullivan (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

How the forecast reads these polls

the same figures as the race page

Every poll feeds the forecast’s Democrat-versus-Republican estimate, which sets the balance between the parties. From the 7 polls below that named every candidate it also takes the share of Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and Gerald L. Heikes: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. 2.6% and Gerald L. Heikes 1.9%, a weighted average.

Poll averageD+2.0the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page

Polls2828 on file · 21 in the poll average · 7 not counted

Latest field dateOct 16Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-16 (12 days old)

EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 28, 2026D+2.0today's poll average of 21 polls

poll in the average · area is its weight
not counted · shown, never moves the line
trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
left of the break: 3 earlier polls, not on the time axis

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table

The poll average as the edition published it for each stretch of days, and the trend line drawn over the same days.
Days	Average as it stood	Trend line
Oct 28, 2026	D+2.0	D+2.0
Oct 16–Oct 27, 2026	D+2.0	D+2.0
Oct 15, 2026	D+2.0	D+2.0
Oct 10–Oct 14, 2026	D+2.0	D+2.0
Oct 3–Oct 9, 2026	D+1.4	D+1.7 to D+2.0
Oct 1–Oct 2, 2026	D+1.4	D+1.6
Sep 30, 2026	D+0.8	D+1.5
Sep 24–Sep 29, 2026	D+1.0	D+1.1 to D+1.4
Sep 17–Sep 23, 2026	D+1.6	D+1.3 to D+1.1
Sep 14–Sep 16, 2026	D+2.6	D+1.6 to D+1.3
Sep 12–Sep 13, 2026	D+3.7	D+1.9 to D+1.7
Sep 11, 2026	D+3.6	D+2.0
Aug 23–Sep 10, 2026	D+2.9	D+2.9 to D+2.2
Aug 5–Aug 22, 2026	D+3.1	D+3.1 to D+2.9
Aug 4, 2026	D+3.4	D+3.1
Jun 29–Aug 3, 2026	D+1.5	D+1.5 to D+3.1
Jun 7–Jun 28, 2026	D+4.9	D+4.9 to D+1.5
May 17–Jun 6, 2026	D+4.6	D+4.6 to D+4.9
Apr 19–May 16, 2026	D+4.7	D+4.7 to D+4.6
Jan 11–Apr 18, 2026	D+1.7	D+1.7 to D+4.7
Oct 15–Jan 10, 2026	D+1.8	D+1.8 to D+1.7

In Senate races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at a quarter of its weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+2.7.

Every poll on file · 28

newest added first

21 in the poll average · 7 shown, not counted

Pollster	Fielded	Sample	Result	Added	Weight	Source
●Rasmussen ReportsGeneral · R sponsor · R partisan	Oct 15, 2026	775 LV	D+2.0Mary Peltola 44Dan Sullivan 42	Oct 281h ago	0.65	Poll release
●Data for ProgressGeneral	Oct 16, 2026 from Oct 8	694 LV	Mary Peltola 47Dan Sullivan 44Dan J. Sullivan 4Don't know 3Gerald Heikes 1every candidate namedMary Peltola 49.0Dan S. Sullivan 45.8Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. 4.2Gerald L. Heikes 1.0	Oct 217d ago	0.62	Poll release
●Public Policy PollingGeneral · Senate · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Oct 15, 2026	578 RV	D+1.0Mary Peltola 48Dan Sullivan 47	Oct 16	0.56	Pollster post
●Quantus InsightsGeneral · Senate	Sep 30, 2026 from Sep 28	758 LV	R+0.6Dan Sullivan 47.8Mary Peltola 47.2+1 other releaseevery candidate namedMary Peltola 48.2Dan S. Sullivan 48.5Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. 1.7Gerald L. Heikes 1.6	Oct 15	0.54	Poll release
●co/efficientGeneral · Senate	Sep 17, 2026 from Sep 14	799 LV	R+3.0Dan Sullivan 49Mary Peltola 46+1 other releaseevery candidate namedMary Peltola 47.9Dan S. Sullivan 50.0Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. 1.0Gerald L. Heikes 1.0	Oct 15	0.48	Poll release
●Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchGeneral · for AARP	Sep 11, 2026 from Sep 8	800 LV	Mary Peltola 46Dan Sullivan 41Don't know 7Dan J. Sullivan 4Gerald Heikes 3every candidate namedMary Peltola 48.9Dan S. Sullivan 43.6Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. 4.3Gerald L. Heikes 3.2	Oct 15	0.45	Poll release
●Alaska Survey ResearchGeneral	Oct 3, 2026	1,512 LV	D+2.0Mary Peltola 47Dan Sullivan 45	Oct 13	0.75	no link
●InsiderAdvantageGeneral	Oct 10, 2026 from Oct 9	1,200 LV	Mary Peltola 48.2Dan Sullivan 42.6Don't know 5.3Gerald Heikes 2.2Dan J. Sullivan 1.7every candidate namedMary Peltola 50.9Dan S. Sullivan 45.0Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. 1.8Gerald L. Heikes 2.3	Oct 11	0.77	Poll release
●The New York Times/Siena CollegeGeneral	Oct 1, 2026	504 LV	D+7.0Mary Peltola 50.07Dan Sullivan 43.07Don't know 6.26Someone else 0.59	Oct 3	0.45	News coverage
●Trafalgar GroupGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan	Sep 24, 2026 from Sep 22	1,079 LV	Dan Sullivan 46.8Mary Peltola 45.5Don't know 4.1Dan J. Sullivan 2.8Gerald Heikes 0.7every candidate namedMary Peltola 47.5Dan S. Sullivan 48.9Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. 2.9Gerald L. Heikes 0.7	Sep 26	0.60	Poll release
●Alaska Survey ResearchGeneral	Sep 12, 2026	1,352 LV	D+4.0Mary Peltola 48Dan Sullivan 44	Sep 22	0.59	no link
●Rasmussen ReportsGeneral · R sponsor · R partisan	Sep 14, 2026	1,188 LV	TiedMary Peltola 39Dan Sullivan 39	Sep 19	0.56	Poll release

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.