Alaska Senate polls
Mary Peltola (D) vs Republican (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateD+2.1same figure as the race page
Polls1111 recorded polls · 9 eligible for the aggregate · 8 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 4Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-04 (40 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- weighted running average · recent, larger and non-partisan polls count more · gaps where polls run thin
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 16
newest first11 in the aggregate · 5 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey ResearchGeneral · Senate | 1,495 LV | Mary Peltola 50.6Dan Sullivan 49.4 | not in the aggregate | Pollster post | ||
| ●Data for ProgressGeneral | 605 LV | Mary Peltola 47Dan Sullivan 41Don't know 5Dan J. Sullivan 4Gerald Heikes 3 | 0.171 | Poll release | ||
| Alaska Survey ResearchGeneral · Senate | 1,371 LV | Mary Peltola 50.8Dan Sullivan 49.2 | not in the aggregate | Pollster post | ||
| ●The New York Times/Siena CollegeGeneral · Senate | 593 LV | Dan Sullivan 47Mary Peltola 45+1 other release | 0.058 | News coverage | ||
| Alaska Survey ResearchGeneral · Senate | 1,946 LV | Mary Peltola 52Dan Sullivan 48+1 other release | not in the aggregate | Pollster post | ||
| Alaska Survey ResearchGeneral · Senate | 1,283 LV | Mary Peltola 52.4Dan Sullivan 47.6+1 other release | not in the aggregate | Poll document | ||
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · Senate · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 611 RV | Mary Peltola 49Dan Sullivan 47+1 other release | excluded from aggregate | Poll release | ||
| ●Alaska Survey ResearchGeneral · Senate | 1,681 LV | Mary Peltola 48Dan Sullivan 46.4+1 other release | 0.000 | Poll document | ||
| ●Data for ProgressGeneral · Senate · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 823 LV | Mary Peltola 46Dan Sullivan 45+1 other release | excluded from aggregate | Poll release | ||
| ●Alaska Survey ResearchGeneral · Senate | 1,708 LV | Mary Peltola 48Dan Sullvian 46+1 other release | 0.000 | Poll document | ||
| ●Alaska Survey ResearchGeneral · Senate | 1,613 LV | Dan Sullivan 46.7Mary Peltola 42.5+1 other release | 0.000 | Poll document | ||
| ●Data for ProgressGeneral · Senate | 678 LV | Dan Sullivan 46Mary Peltola 45+1 other release | 0.000 | Poll release |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.