AK-AL · U.S. House
Open this race on The Map ↗Nick Begich has a 65.1% chance of winning after ranked-choice transfers. No final-round margin is published.
Show all others (1)
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations · shares are first-choice votes; winning chances include ranked-choice transfers, not a published final-round margin
About this field
At-large; ranked-choice keeps it live.
Forecast share averages the simulated vote. Win chance counts how often a candidate wins. A wider range of outcomes can give a candidate a higher win chance despite a lower average share.
The polls
Share of the named field Nick Begich 53.7% · Bill Hill 41.5% · Eric Hafner 4.9%1 admitted poll · latest 2026-08-23
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Result | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-08-20 | Alaska Survey Research ↗ | 53.7Nick Begich41.5Bill Hill4.9Eric Hafner | 1,872LV |
Shares are of the candidates named on the question; undecided and “would not vote” answers are not shares of anyone and are excluded from the denominator. This ballot has no Democrat–Republican pairing, so there is no margin to average.
How the partisan coordinate was built
Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.
The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded. This is the model coordinate before ranked-choice transfers.
Winning chances include ranked-choice transfers. No final-round margin is published.
All calculations & sources
This district's measured terrain −13.124 points
Call the Map's partisan lean on the CURRENT district lines, before any current-cycle evidence. Every pull below is measured from here — not from EVEN.
- Call the Map partisan lean, district geography bound to this forecast edition.
- Prior source: observed_unchanged_lines.
Fitted model, above the terrain shown +8.057 points
What the fitted model adds on top of the starting terrain above — incumbency, past results, campaign finance and the other fitted terms — measured from that terrain rather than from EVEN. It is a comparison with the starting point already shown, not a separate input. The source detail lists the variables the fit uses.
- Fitted baseline -5.067 minus starting point -13.124 = 8.057 points.
- One fitted structural total; this edition does not split it into partisan lean and incumbency.
- Fundamentals: −5.1 — the district's structural lean before this year's polling, money and candidate quality are added.
- This edition publishes that as one fitted total. It does not break it into a partisan-lean and an incumbency term, so this page does not invent that split.
- fundamentals core = 25-term dynamic formula (mass fit over the master feature matrix, held-out-cycle validated; see matrix/feature_dictionary.md + mass_fit_report.json)
- 40-term formula, held-out validated.
National environment +1.365 points
The contribution to this race’s margin, not the national polling margin itself. The race’s loading, reference level and polling blend determine how much of the national climate reaches its final forecast.
- Three-source blend, updated 2026-09-08: 52% generic-ballot aggregates (D+6.5) · 28% special-election overperformance (D+9.0 across 46 specials) · 20% approval-implied (D+8.6 from net approval -21.7).
- Latest polls — generic ballot 2026-09-08 (5 days old), approval 2026-09-10 (3 days old).
- Generic-ballot average D+6.5 · support factor 0.84 (the share of that channel's capacity the admitted polls carry) — separate inputs; their product is a capacity diagnostic, not a margin.
- Weights are the 55/25/20 capacities scaled by each channel's evidence and renormalized, so thin polling widens the interval instead of pulling the center toward zero — 16% of the weight is carried that way.
- Blended national environment: D+7.6.
- Applied at full strength to this chamber's races.
- The work: national environment × 1 chamber strength = +1.4 of this margin.
- Blended national environment: D+7.6 (updated 2026-09-08).
- Effective poll weight 84%; fundamentals share 16%, carried by the interval (×1.08) rather than by the center.
- The support factor is the share of the generic-ballot capacity the admitted polls carry; average × support is a capacity diagnostic, not a margin, and is not what the row above multiplies.
- Applied at full strength to this chamber: +1.4 of this margin.
These are the fitted model’s named contributions to the partisan coordinate, before the candidate-field calculation.
| Named factor | Contribution |
|---|---|
| FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race. | −5.07 |
| National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin. | +1.37 |
| Other factors | 0.00 |
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | Begich (R) won ↗Ranked-choice winner. The vote-count column retains the source's first-choice total; it is not the number of continuing final-round ballots. | 329,555 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | Peltola (D) won ↗Ranked-choice final round: Peltola 137,263; Palin 112,471. The vote-count column retains the source's first-choice total. | 263,610 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | R+9.2 | 353,165 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | R+6.6 | 282,166 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.
The money
Nick Begich ↗
R$5.5Mraised
$3.1M cash on handFiling through 07/29/2026
Bill Hill
INo filingrecorded
— cash on handFiling date unavailable
Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $0
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $0
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee receipts are counted through Sep 1, 2026. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
Outside spending
Support + opposition · separate from receiptsFor and against Bill Hill$4.0M
4 spending groups
| Group | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| WHEEL DOG PAC | $2.8M | $0 |
| Club for Growth Action | $0 | $1.2M |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC. | $0 | $19K |
| SEIU COPE (Service Employees International Union Committee On Political Education) | $11K | $0 |
For and against Nick Begich$778K
7 spending groups
| Group | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS | $508K | $0 |
| CORNERSTONE FOUNDERS PAC | $0 | $125K |
| WHEEL DOG PAC | $0 | $100K |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC. | $19K | $0 |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTION | $11K | $0 |
| Club for Growth PAC | $8K | $0 |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | $8K | $0 |
Includes primary spending. Opposition is recorded against its named target; no benefit to another candidate is assumed.
$333K in outside spending on earlier candidates.
No filing matched: Eric Hafner.
FEC filings · through 07/29/2026 · Definitions & method
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 258,616
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+13.7
Population profile Select a measure for its source and denominator
U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗