CA-14 · U.S. House
Open this race on The Map ↗Aisha Wahab is heavily favored to win. Projected candidate margin: Aisha Wahab over Melissa Hernandez by 38.1 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: November's certified top-two field is Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez, so a Democrat-versus-Republican margin would not describe this contest.
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | D+35.5 | 276,388 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | D+38.7 | 198,464 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | D+58.6 | 351,005 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | D+58.4 | 266,823 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.
The money
Melissa Hernandez ↗
D$1.5Mraised
$176K cash on handFiling through 07/29/2026
Aisha Wahab ↗
D$632Kraised
$147K cash on handFiling through 07/29/2026
Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $0
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $0
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee receipts are counted through Sep 1, 2026. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
FEC filings · through 07/29/2026 · Definitions & method
No county projection here: this is a same-party general, so there is no Democratic-vs-Republican margin to project onto counties.
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 192,887
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+36.2