CA-14 · U.S. House
Aisha Wahab is heavily favored to win. Projected candidate margin: Aisha Wahab over Melissa Hernandez by 38.2 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: November's certified top-two field is Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez, so a Democrat-versus-Republican margin would not describe this contest.
Under each share, its likely range (80 in 100 simulations) · * incumbent
Where the votes are
The map of this race loads here.
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | D+35.5 | 276,388 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | D+38.7 | 198,464 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | D+58.6 | 351,005 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | D+58.4 | 266,823 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins are the Democrat’s share of all votes cast minus the Republican’s.
The money
Melissa Hernandez ↗
D$1.5Mraised
$176K cash on hand
Aisha Wahab ↗
D$632Kraised
$147K cash on hand
The tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $325
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $325
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee supports are counted as each one arrives. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
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FEC filings · through 07/29/2026 · Definitions & method
Race context
- 2024 presidential vote here
- 285,585
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+36.2between the two parties
Forecast as of October 28, 2026: Call the Map currently has Aisha Wahab ahead of Melissa Hernandez by 38.2 points, with a 96 in 100 chance to win. The seat is currently held by a Democrat. That result would keep the seat with Democrats. No current nominee-matched poll average is available, so the forecast is leaning on the non-polling evidence shown below.