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FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
House3 November 2026 · 51 days out

Angela Gonzales-Torres is narrowly favored to win. Projected candidate margin: Angela Gonzales-Torres over Jimmy Gomez by 3.9 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: November's certified top-two field is Angela Gonzales-Torres and Jimmy Gomez, so a Democrat-versus-Republican margin would not describe this contest.

Angela Gonzales-Torres (D)58 in 10057.6%52.0high 66.0 · low 38.0
Jimmy Gomez (D)42 in 10042.4%48.0high 62.0 · low 34.0

high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations

Democratic-held seat

Recent elections

ElectionResultVotes cast
2024 · U.S. HouseNot a D–R contestThe ballot was not a Democrat versus a Republican; a D/R margin cannot identify the winner.189,414
2022 · U.S. HouseNot a D–R contestThe ballot was not a Democrat versus a Republican; a D/R margin cannot identify the winner.121,467
2020 · U.S. HouseNot a D–R contestThe ballot was not a Democrat versus a Republican; a D/R margin cannot identify the winner.205,346
2018 · U.S. HouseNot a D–R contestThe ballot was not a Democrat versus a Republican; a D/R margin cannot identify the winner.151,906

Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.

The money

Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.

One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $0

The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.

Received so far
$0
Measured compute
$26,188.58

Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee receipts are counted through Sep 1, 2026. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.

See the public support ledger →

No outside spending matched: Jimmy Gomez.

FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method

No county projection here: this is a same-party general, so there is no Democratic-vs-Republican margin to project onto counties.

Race context

Forecast votes cast
144,891
2024 presidential margin
D+53.0

Coverage