CA-34 · U.S. House
Angela Gonzales-Torres is slightly favored to win. Projected candidate margin: Angela Gonzales-Torres over Jimmy Gomez by 7.2 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: November's certified top-two field is Angela Gonzales-Torres and Jimmy Gomez, so a Democrat-versus-Republican margin would not describe this contest.
Under each share, its likely range (80 in 100 simulations) · * incumbent
The polls
The polls of these two candidates
Both candidates are Democrats, so there is no Democrat-versus-Republican contest to estimate. The forecast splits the vote between them by the plain average of the 3 polls listed here: Angela Gonzales-Torres 53.6% and Jimmy Gomez 46.4%. Each poll counts the same. Newer and larger polls get no extra weight, nothing is adjusted for who paid for a poll, and the average is not blended with past results, the national mood or fundraising.
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Each candidate’s share | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-10-16 | USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab ↗ | 53.1Angela Gonzales-Torres46.9Jimmy Gomez | 423LV |
| from 2026-10-08 | Center for Strategic Politics ↗Democratic-aligned sponsor | 55.8Angela Gonzales-Torres44.2Jimmy Gomez | 416LV |
| from 2026-09-01 | Upswing Research ↗for Guardrails Alliance | 51.9Angela Gonzales-Torres48.1Jimmy Gomez | 403LV |
| Plain average, as the forecast took it | 53.6Angela Gonzales-Torres46.4Jimmy Gomez | 3 polls | |
It then simulates the election many times around that split and publishes the average result: Angela Gonzales-Torres 53.6% and Jimmy Gomez 46.4%, a lead of 7.2 points for Angela Gonzales-Torres.
Each poll’s figures are shares of the people who picked a candidate. Undecided voters are left out, so the numbers run a little higher than the poll’s own headline figures, and a candidate who has since left the race is not counted.
Where the votes are
The map of this race loads here.
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | Not a D–R contestThe ballot was not a Democrat versus a Republican; a D/R margin cannot identify the winner. | 189,414 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | Not a D–R contestThe ballot was not a Democrat versus a Republican; a D/R margin cannot identify the winner. | 121,467 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | Not a D–R contestThe ballot was not a Democrat versus a Republican; a D/R margin cannot identify the winner. | 205,346 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | Not a D–R contestThe ballot was not a Democrat versus a Republican; a D/R margin cannot identify the winner. | 151,906 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins are the Democrat’s share of all votes cast minus the Republican’s.
The money
Jimmy Gomez ↗
D$1.2Mraised
$782K cash on hand
Angela Gonzales-Torres ↗
D$229Kraised
$44K cash on hand
The tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $335
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $335
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee supports are counted as each one arrives. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
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FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method
Race context
- 2024 presidential vote here
- 214,522
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+53.0between the two parties
Forecast as of October 29, 2026: Call the Map currently has Angela Gonzales-Torres ahead of Jimmy Gomez by 7.2 points, with a 64 in 100 chance to win. The seat is currently held by a Democrat. That result would keep the seat with Democrats. The forecast reads 3 polls that named every candidate in this race, listed under “The polls”.