CA-06 · U.S. House
Open this race on The Map ↗Richard Pan is heavily favored to win. Projected candidate margin: Richard Pan over Kevin Kiley by 15.5 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: November's certified top-two field is Richard Pan and Kevin Kiley, so a Democrat-versus-Republican margin would not describe this contest.
Field notes
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
The polls
Share of the named field Richard Pan 52.7% · Kevin Kiley 47.3%1 admitted poll · latest 2026-07-16
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Result | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-07-13 | The Bullfinch Group ↗ | 52.7Richard Pan47.3Kevin Kiley | 741LV |
Shares are of the candidates named on the question; undecided and “would not vote” answers are not shares of anyone and are excluded from the denominator. This ballot has no Democrat–Republican pairing, so there is no margin to average.
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | D+15.2 | 287,072 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | D+11.9 | 216,383 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | D+46.7 | 313,114 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | Not a D–R contestThe ballot was not a Democrat versus a Republican; a D/R margin cannot identify the winner. | 201,939 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.
The money
Kevin Kiley ↗
I$3.0Mraised
$2.1M cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Richard Pan ↗
D$1.1Mraised
$359K cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $0
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $0
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee receipts are counted through Sep 1, 2026. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method
No county projection here: this ballot is not a Democrat-versus-Republican contest, so there is no candidate margin to project onto counties.
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 227,171
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+8.7