CA-40 · U.S. House
Open this race on The Map ↗Ken Calvert has a slight edge to win. Projected candidate margin: Ken Calvert over Young Kim by 1.4 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: November's certified top-two field is Ken Calvert and Young Kim, so a Democrat-versus-Republican margin would not describe this contest.
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
The polls
Share of the named field Ken Calvert 50.7% · Young Kim 49.3%2 admitted polls · latest 2026-08-20
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Result | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-08-17 | Public Opinion Strategies ↗R-sponsored | 50.7Ken Calvert49.3Young Kim | 400LV |
| from 2026-07-08 | American Viewpoint ↗R-sponsored | 50.8Ken Calvert49.2Young Kim | —LV |
Shares are of the candidates named on the question; undecided and “would not vote” answers are not shares of anyone and are excluded from the denominator. This ballot has no Democrat–Republican pairing, so there is no margin to average.
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | R+10.5 | 383,635 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | R+13.7 | 284,311 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | D+45.5 | 186,381 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | Not a D–R contestThe ballot was not a Democrat versus a Republican; a D/R margin cannot identify the winner. | 121,449 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.
The money
Young Kim ↗
R$8.8Mraised
$1.7M cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Ken Calvert ↗
R$6.1Mraised
$1.5M cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $0
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $0
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee receipts are counted through Sep 1, 2026. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method
No county projection here: this is a same-party general, so there is no Democratic-vs-Republican margin to project onto counties.
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 257,368
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+12.6