CA-40 · U.S. House
Young Kim is slightly favored to win. Projected candidate margin: Young Kim over Ken Calvert by 2.8 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: November's certified top-two field is Young Kim and Ken Calvert, so a Democrat-versus-Republican margin would not describe this contest.
Under each share, its likely range (80 in 100 simulations) · * incumbent
The polls
The polls of these two candidates
Both candidates are Republicans, so there is no Democrat-versus-Republican contest to estimate. The forecast splits the vote between them by the plain average of the 3 polls listed here: Young Kim 51.5% and Ken Calvert 48.5%. Each poll counts the same. Newer and larger polls get no extra weight, nothing is adjusted for who paid for a poll, and the average is not blended with past results, the national mood or fundraising.
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Each candidate’s share | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-09-05 | Grassroots Targeting ↗for California First FundRepublican-aligned sponsor | 55.8Young Kim44.2Ken Calvert | 800LV |
| from 2026-08-17 | Public Opinion Strategies ↗Republican-aligned sponsor | 49.3Young Kim50.7Ken Calvert | 400LV |
| from 2026-07-08 | American Viewpoint ↗for California First FundRepublican-aligned sponsor | 49.2Young Kim50.8Ken Calvert | —LV |
| Plain average, as the forecast took it | 51.5Young Kim48.5Ken Calvert | 3 polls | |
It then simulates the election many times around that split and publishes the average result: Young Kim 51.4% and Ken Calvert 48.6%, a lead of 2.9 points for Young Kim.
Each poll’s figures are shares of the people who picked a candidate. Undecided voters are left out, so the numbers run a little higher than the poll’s own headline figures, and a candidate who has since left the race is not counted.
Where the votes are
The map of this race loads here.
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | R+10.5 | 383,635 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | R+13.7 | 284,311 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | D+45.5 | 186,381 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | Not a D–R contestThe ballot was not a Democrat versus a Republican; a D/R margin cannot identify the winner. | 121,449 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins are the Democrat’s share of all votes cast minus the Republican’s.
The money
Young Kim ↗
R$8.8Mraised
$1.7M cash on hand
Ken Calvert ↗
R$6.1Mraised
$1.5M cash on hand
The tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $325
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $325
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee supports are counted as each one arrives. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
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FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method
Race context
- 2024 presidential vote here
- 381,054
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+12.6between the two parties
Forecast as of October 28, 2026: Call the Map currently has Young Kim ahead of Ken Calvert by 2.8 points, with a 56 in 100 chance to win. The seat is currently held by a Republican. That result would keep the seat with Republicans. The forecast reads 3 polls that named every candidate in this race, listed under “The polls”.