CA-11 · U.S. House
Scott Wiener is favored to win. Projected candidate margin: Scott Wiener over Connie Chan by 9.0 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: November's certified top-two field is Scott Wiener and Connie Chan, so a Democrat-versus-Republican margin would not describe this contest.
Under each share, its likely range (80 in 100 simulations)
The polls
The polls of these two candidates
Both candidates are Democrats, so there is no Democrat-versus-Republican contest to estimate. The forecast splits the vote between them by the plain average of the 3 polls listed here: Scott Wiener 54.5% and Connie Chan 45.5%. Each poll counts the same. Newer and larger polls get no extra weight, nothing is adjusted for who paid for a poll, and the average is not blended with past results, the national mood or fundraising.
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Each candidate’s share | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-10-16 | USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab ↗ | 53.7Scott Wiener46.3Connie Chan | 454LV |
| from 2026-09-15 | Tavern Research ↗for Jobs and Democracy PACDemocratic-aligned sponsor | 57.0Scott Wiener43.0Connie Chan | 658LV |
| from 2026-07-14 | Lake Research Partners ↗Democratic-aligned sponsor | 52.9Scott Wiener47.1Connie Chan | 500LV |
| Plain average, as the forecast took it | 54.5Scott Wiener45.5Connie Chan | 3 polls | |
It then simulates the election many times around that split and publishes the average result: Scott Wiener 54.5% and Connie Chan 45.5%, a lead of 9.0 points for Scott Wiener.
Each poll’s figures are shares of the people who picked a candidate. Undecided voters are left out, so the numbers run a little higher than the poll’s own headline figures, and a candidate who has since left the race is not counted.
Where the votes are
The map of this race loads here.
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | D+62.1 | 339,111 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | D+67.9 | 263,065 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | D+46.0 | 371,356 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | D+48.3 | 275,681 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins are the Democrat’s share of all votes cast minus the Republican’s.
The money
Scott Wiener ↗
D$4.6Mraised
$1.2M cash on hand
Connie Chan ↗
D$1.1Mraised
$362K cash on hand
The tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $325
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $325
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee supports are counted as each one arrives. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
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FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method
Race context
- 2024 presidential vote here
- 361,181
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+70.6between the two parties
Coverage
5 quotes
- Most pro-Palestine activists do not support Scott Wiener for Congress even though he doesn't support U.S. aid to Israel and calls it a genocide.
To understand why, activists say, requires looking into his record.
via @io-y-g.bsky.social
missionlocal.org/2026/10/san-... ↗
Mission Local · Official · 1d ago
curated newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match - Scott Wiener leads Connie Chan in all published polls, mostly within the margin of error.
Chan, however, tends to outperform her poll numbers at the ballot box because a key group of her supporters is often missing from polls.
missionlocal.org/2026/10/wien... ↗
Mission Local · Official · 3d ago
curated newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match · election-topic match - We asked congressional candidates Connie Chan and Scott Wiener whether they support expanding work visas and pathways to green cards.
Here are their answers:
missionlocal.org/2026/10/cong... ↗
Mission Local · Official · 4d ago
curated newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match - Tom Steyer endorsed Scott Wiener for Pelosi’s House seat, while former U.S. Labor Secretary Robert Reich endorsed Connie Chan.
missionlocal.org/2026/10/stey... ↗
Mission Local · Official · 5d ago
curated newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match - Supervisor Connie Chan cited San Francisco Public Press reporting in two congressional debates this month, challenging state Sen. Scott Wiener on SB 53, California's first AI safety law. ↗
San Francisco Public Press · Analysis · 6d ago
curated election analyst · recent Bluesky post · named-race match
Forecast as of October 28, 2026: Call the Map currently has Scott Wiener ahead of Connie Chan by 9.0 points, with a 67 in 100 chance to win. This is an open seat. That result would keep the seat with Democrats. The forecast reads 3 polls that named every candidate in this race, listed under “The polls”.