CA-11 · U.S. House
Open this race on The Map ↗Scott Wiener is narrowly favored to win. Projected candidate margin: Scott Wiener over Connie Chan by 5.9 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: November's certified top-two field is Scott Wiener and Connie Chan, so a Democrat-versus-Republican margin would not describe this contest.
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
The polls
Share of the named field Scott Wiener 52.9% · Connie Chan 47.1%1 admitted poll · latest 2026-07-19
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Result | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-07-14 | Lake Research Partners ↗D-sponsored | 52.9Scott Wiener47.1Connie Chan | 500LV |
Shares are of the candidates named on the question; undecided and “would not vote” answers are not shares of anyone and are excluded from the denominator. This ballot has no Democrat–Republican pairing, so there is no margin to average.
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | D+62.1 | 339,111 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | D+67.9 | 263,065 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | D+46.0 | 371,356 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | D+48.3 | 275,681 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.
The money
Scott Wiener ↗
D$4.6Mraised
$1.2M cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Connie Chan ↗
D$1.1Mraised
$362K cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $0
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $0
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee receipts are counted through Sep 1, 2026. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method
No county projection here: this is a same-party general, so there is no Democratic-vs-Republican margin to project onto counties.
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 243,946
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+70.6