The House · CA-11
No county projection here: this is a same-party general, so there is no Democratic-vs-Republican margin to project onto counties.
State of the race
November's certified top-two field is Connie Chan (Dem.) and Scott Wiener (Dem.). Call the Map does not publish candidate-specific shares or win odds for this non-D-vs-R matchup.
- Seat
- Dem.-held · projected hold
- Forecast range
- D+14.7 to D+35.6
Both November candidates are Democrats; the seat is certain for the party. The current two-party model does not assign candidate shares, win odds, or a margin decomposition to this field.
Recent polling
No candidate-specific poll average is published for this certified field. Call the Map does not convert a two-party D/R model into candidate odds for this matchup.
Money in this race
Who does this money help? These are independent expenditures — spending by groups that are not the campaigns and may not coordinate with them. Each dollar is reported either supporting one candidate or opposing another, and both can help the same person, so the table below nets them out per candidate. It lists everyone with reported activity in this cycle's FEC filings — which can include primary candidates who are no longer on the ballot.
| Candidate | Supporting them | Opposing them | Net for them |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Wiener DPrimary field | $1.1M | $41.1K | +$1.1M |
| Connie Chan DPrimary field | $997.2K | $10.9K | +$986.3K |
| Marie Hurabiell DPrimary field | $51K | — | +$51K |
| Saikat Chakrabarti DPrimary field | $10.9K | $887.5K | −$876.6K |
Direct PAC support
- Connie ChanNot on the ballot$111K
- Scott WienerNot on the ballot$79.2K
Top outside spenders
Official FEC independent expenditures. Cycle totals may include primary spending. Direct PAC totals include governed committee contributions and in-kind contributions. Campaign-video embeds are metadata-only editorial context from exact, reviewed channels; inclusion does not establish paid placement. Outside spending and campaign videos have zero forecast weight; direct PAC activity is reporting only.