CA-04 · U.S. House
Mike Thompson is heavily favored to win. Projected candidate margin: Mike Thompson over Eric Jones by 29.6 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: November's certified top-two field is Mike Thompson and Eric Jones, so a Democrat-versus-Republican margin would not describe this contest.
Under each share, its likely range (80 in 100 simulations) · * incumbent
Where the votes are
The map of this race loads here.
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | D+32.9 | 342,680 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | D+35.6 | 260,907 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | R+11.9 | 442,022 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | R+8.3 | 340,654 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins are the Democrat’s share of all votes cast minus the Republican’s.
The money
Eric Jones ↗
D$8.4Mraised
$656K cash on hand
Mike Thompson ↗
D$4.2Mraised
$1.1M cash on hand
The tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $325
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $325
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee supports are counted as each one arrives. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
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FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method
Race context
- 2024 presidential vote here
- 343,934
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+15.0between the two parties
Forecast as of October 28, 2026: Call the Map currently has Mike Thompson ahead of Eric Jones by 29.6 points, with a 92 in 100 chance to win. The seat is currently held by a Democrat. That result would keep the seat with Democrats. No current nominee-matched poll average is available, so the forecast is leaning on the non-polling evidence shown below.