CA-04 · U.S. House
Open this race on The Map ↗Mike Thompson is heavily favored to win. Projected candidate margin: Mike Thompson over Eric Jones by 29.6 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: November's certified top-two field is Mike Thompson and Eric Jones, so a Democrat-versus-Republican margin would not describe this contest.
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | D+32.9 | 342,680 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | D+35.6 | 260,907 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | R+11.9 | 442,022 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | R+8.3 | 340,654 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.
The money
Eric Jones ↗
D$8.4Mraised
$656K cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Mike Thompson ↗
D$4.2Mraised
$1.1M cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $0
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $0
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee receipts are counted through Sep 1, 2026. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method
No county projection here: this is a same-party general, so there is no Democratic-vs-Republican margin to project onto counties.
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 232,297
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+15.0