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FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
← governor3 November 2026 · 51 days out

Ohio · Governor

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Vivek Ramaswamy has a slight edge to keep the Ohio governorship in Republican hands. Predicted margin: R+2.1.

Amy Acton (D)38 in 10037.9%47.8high 52.2 · low 43.5
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)62 in 10062.1%49.9high 54.3 · low 45.6

high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations

About this field

DeWine term-limited; open seat drew a real D field.

Forecast share averages the simulated vote. Win chance counts how often a candidate wins. A wider range of outcomes can give a candidate a higher win chance despite a lower average share.

Tilt R80% range · margin points R+11.0 to D+6.8Open seat

Forecast history

Steady0.0 pts · Sep 11 → Sep 13
EVENAug 1Nov 3 · Election Day

Latest reading · Sep 13 · first published Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points R+11.0 to D+6.8. Methodology

Hover the line, tap it, or use the arrow keys to inspect its history.

About this series

This comparable series begins on September 9, 2026, when the model version changed to CTMM 2.2. Earlier readings remain in the archive and are not joined as voter movement; faded points before September 9, 2026 are reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those days.

Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.

The polls

Ledger weighted average R+0.9Used by the forecast: 17 polls (60-day half-life) · measured D+0.4 · after the fitted poll-error shift R+2.119 recorded polls · 19 eligible for the aggregate · 17 with positive weight

FieldworkAddedPollsterResultSample
from 2026-08-11Wedgewood Polls ↗D+1.0D 47% · R 46%800 LV
from 2026-08-06Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗Fox NewsR+2.0D 48% · R 50%1,008 RV
from 2026-07-29Tulchin Research ↗D+2.0D 46% · R 44%600 LV
from 2026-06-15The New York Times/Siena University ↗R+0.2D 46.67% · R 46.85%601 LV
from 2026-06-14Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research ↗AARPD+3.0D 47% · R 44%800 LV
from 2026-06-02Tulchin Research ↗D+3.0D 47% · R 44%600 LV
from 2026-05-28Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗Fox NewsD+1.0D 50% · R 49%1,015 RV
from 2026-04-07Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov ↗R+1.0D 47% · R 48%1,000 RV
Explore poll adjustments

8 of 19 matching · 19 total

Ledger weighted average R+0.9

Wedgewood Polls13 Aug · 800 LV · added 23 Aug
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research10 Aug · 1,008 RV · added 23 Aug
Tulchin Research4 Aug · 600 LV · added 23 Aug
The New York Times/Siena University28 Jun · 601 LV · added 23 Aug
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research16 Jun · 800 LV · added 23 Aug
Tulchin Research4 Jun · 600 LV · added 23 Aug
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research1 Jun · 1,015 RV · added 23 Aug
Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov14 Apr · 1,000 RV · added 23 Aug
Explore all 19 polls for this race

How the margin was built

Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.

Toward D+9.1
Toward R−11.2
Forecast marginR+2.1

The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded.

All calculations & sources

How this state voted, 2024 −11.210 points

The state's two-party presidential margin in 2024, from our own county sums — the same measurement the model's statewide terrain center is built from. Every pull below is measured from here, not from EVEN, which is why a landslide seat's listed pulls are small numbers and still land where the forecast does.

  • 2024 presidential result for this state, two-party, from Call the Map's own county sums.
  • Same source as Act I's 2024-president reference mark, so the origin lands on it.

Fitted model, above the terrain shown +5.636 points

What the fitted model adds on top of the starting terrain above — incumbency, past results, campaign finance and the other fitted terms — measured from that terrain rather than from EVEN. It is a comparison with the starting point already shown, not a separate input. The source detail lists the variables the fit uses.

  • Fitted baseline -5.574 minus starting point -11.210 = 5.636 points.
  • Fitted intercept: -6.136 points.
  • 2010 White population share used by the frozen historical fit: observed input 82.605. -0.503 × ((82.605 − 77.922) / 12.864) = -0.183 points.
  • gov_midterm_wh: observed input -1.000. -0.987 × ((-1.000 − 0.336) / 0.739) = 1.785 points.
  • 2024 presidential lean relative to the national result: observed input -9.813. 4.163 × ((-9.813 − -4.415) / 20.258) = -1.109 points.
  • Previous governor election margin: observed input -25.030. 1.755 × ((-25.030 − -3.131) / 19.227) = -1.999 points.
  • gov_inc_running_signed: observed input 0.000. 2.531 × ((0.000 − -0.120) / 0.708) = 0.428 points.
  • gov_inc_tenure_signed: observed input 0.000. 3.340 × ((0.000 − -0.143) / 0.902) = 0.529 points.
  • The displayed arithmetic is rounded; the fitted terms use full precision. The intercept plus these five terms gives the non-ratings baseline.
  • No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.
  • Certified 2024 presidential baseline: state R+11.3, national R+1.5; subtracting the national margin gives relative lean −9.8. Source: FEC compilation of certified state results.

This race’s polls +1.934 points

What this race’s own recent polling adds beyond its prior, after each poll is weighted for recency, sample size and pollster quality.

  • 19 poll(s) / 14 pollster(s)
  • The admitted polling average is R+0.9, after pollster, sample and recency adjustments.
  • Polling contribution = 70.2% × (-0.890 − prior -4.300) = +1.9 points after component rounding.
  • The prior includes national environment and expert ratings. The blend is R+1.9 before the separately disclosed candidate and formula adjustments.

National environment +1.143 points

The contribution to this race’s margin, not the national polling margin itself. The race’s loading, reference level and polling blend determine how much of the national climate reaches its final forecast.

  • The national environment in this edition is D+7.6. This row is its contribution to the race’s prior, not a claim that the country is D+1.1.
  • The environment enters once, through the fitted governor elasticity: 0.4216 × (7.600 − 1.882, the environment the governor priors themselves imply) = +2.4; the producer rounds the contribution to +2.4.
  • Polls receive 70.2% of the blend. They attenuate this contribution to +0.7 in the final center; the offset is included in the polling row.
  • The elasticity is fitted on the pooled panel of contested governor races (2010–2024) with cycle-clustered standard errors; it is a measured response to the national environment, not a judgment floor.

Historical error calibration +0.380 points

A prior-election residual correction, when an admitted model publishes one.

  • No separate historical residual correction is published in this governor edition.

The components this edition publishes for this race, in points. “Other factors” closes the sum to the two-party structural lean exactly. Here the structural lean IS the published margin, so the walk sums to the projection exactly; nothing is left over.

Named factorContribution
FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race.−5.57
This race's pollsAdmitted head-to-head polls of this race, recency- and quality-weighted.+1.93
National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin.+1.14
Historical calibrationThe House lane's calibration against certified past cycles.+0.38
Other factors0.00

Recent elections

ElectionResultVotes cast
2022 · Governor ↗R+25.14,134,877
2018 · Governor ↗R+3.94,435,820
2014 · Governor ↗R+31.73,055,913
2010 · Governor ↗R+2.13,852,469

Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.

Race context

Forecast votes cast
4,060,869
Forecast turnout
45.2% of the voting-eligible population
2024 presidential margin
R+11.3

Statewide, 47.0% of the voting-eligible population is projected to cast a ballot; the lower figure above is the share projected to vote in this race.

Population profile Select a measure for its source and denominator

White alone · 78.8%9,281,702 of 11,774,683 · Residents2022 Census · matched race geography
Demographic source and limits

U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗

Coverage

12 stories · 10 quotes

All coverage and full posts on the Wire →