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FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
← governor3 November 2026 · 51 days out

Rhode Island · Governor

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Helena Buonanno Foulkes is favored to lead Rhode Island’s vote. Predicted margin: 25.5 points.

Helena Buonanno Foulkes (D)93 in 10093.2%51.2high 59.9 · low 41.0
The Republican nominee (R)1 in 1001.0%25.7high 34.3 · low 15.4
Ken Block (I)6 in 1005.8%20.1high 35.3 · low 7.9
Show all others (1)
Other (minor parties / write-ins)—3.0high 6.1 · low 0.8

high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations

About this field

McKee faces a Democratic primary; Republican Party-endorsed Aaron Guckian qualified for the September 8 primary ballot. Both nominations remain unsettled.

Forecast share averages the simulated vote. Win chance counts how often a candidate wins. A wider range of outcomes can give a candidate a higher win chance despite a lower average share.

Solid DDemocratic-held seat

How the partisan coordinate was built

Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.

Toward D+26.4
Net coordinateD+26.4

The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded.

All calculations & sources

How this state voted, 2024 +13.850 points

The state's two-party presidential margin in 2024, from our own county sums — the same measurement the model's statewide terrain center is built from. Every pull below is measured from here, not from EVEN, which is why a landslide seat's listed pulls are small numbers and still land where the forecast does.

  • 2024 presidential result for this state, two-party, from Call the Map's own county sums.
  • Same source as Act I's 2024-president reference mark, so the origin lands on it.

Fitted model, above the terrain shown +5.767 points

What the fitted model adds on top of the starting terrain above — incumbency, past results, campaign finance and the other fitted terms — measured from that terrain rather than from EVEN. It is a comparison with the starting point already shown, not a separate input. The source detail lists the variables the fit uses.

  • Fitted baseline 19.617 minus starting point 13.850 = 5.767 points.
  • Fitted intercept: -6.136 points.
  • 2010 White population share used by the frozen historical fit: observed input 81.272. -0.503 × ((81.272 − 77.922) / 12.864) = -0.131 points.
  • gov_midterm_wh: observed input -1.000. -0.987 × ((-1.000 − 0.336) / 0.739) = 1.785 points.
  • 2024 presidential lean relative to the national result: observed input 15.663. 4.163 × ((15.663 − -4.415) / 20.258) = 4.126 points.
  • Previous governor election margin: observed input 19.060. 1.755 × ((19.060 − -3.131) / 19.227) = 2.026 points.
  • gov_inc_running_signed: observed input 0.000. 2.531 × ((0.000 − -0.120) / 0.708) = 0.428 points.
  • gov_inc_tenure_signed: observed input 0.000. 3.340 × ((0.000 − -0.143) / 0.902) = 0.529 points.
  • The displayed arithmetic is rounded; the fitted terms use full precision. The intercept plus these five terms gives the non-ratings baseline.
  • No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.
  • Certified 2024 presidential baseline: state D+14.2, national R+1.5; subtracting the national margin gives relative lean +15.7. Source: FEC compilation of certified state results.

Historical error calibration +4.188 points

A prior-election residual correction, when an admitted model publishes one.

  • No separate historical residual correction is published in this governor edition.

Structural safeguards +1.419 points

Bounded corrections that keep the model consistent with structural facts.

  • No Senate-style structural calibration is used in the governor model.

National environment +1.143 points

The contribution to this race’s margin, not the national polling margin itself. The race’s loading, reference level and polling blend determine how much of the national climate reaches its final forecast.

  • The national environment in this edition is D+7.6. This row is its contribution to the race’s prior, not a claim that the country is D+1.1.
  • The environment enters once, through the fitted governor elasticity: 0.4216 × (7.600 − 1.882, the environment the governor priors themselves imply) = +2.4; the producer rounds the contribution to +2.4.
  • No admitted polling attenuates this contribution here; it reaches the final center in full.
  • The elasticity is fitted on the pooled panel of contested governor races (2010–2024) with cycle-clustered standard errors; it is a measured response to the national environment, not a judgment floor.

The components this edition publishes for this race, in points. “Other factors” closes the sum to the two-party structural lean exactly. On this ballot the published projection is the candidate-field forecast, so the “Candidate-field consolidation” row carries the exact re-basing from the structural lean to the published margin; with it, the walk sums to the projection exactly.

Named factorContribution
FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race.+19.62
Historical calibrationThe House lane's calibration against certified past cycles.+4.19
Structural terrain safeguardA bounded pull toward presidential terrain in heavily partisan states.+1.42
National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin.+1.14
Other factors0.00

Recent elections

ElectionResultVotes cast
2022 · Governor ↗D+19.7357,670
2018 · Governor ↗D+17.2376,401
2014 · Governor ↗D+5.8318,605
2006 · Governor ↗R+2.0386,809

Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.

Race context

Forecast votes cast
358,879
Forecast turnout
43.5% of the voting-eligible population
2024 presidential margin
D+14.2

Statewide, 44.1% of the voting-eligible population is projected to cast a ballot; the lower figure above is the share projected to vote in this race.

Population profile Select a measure for its source and denominator

White alone · 74.6%816,308 of 1,094,250 · Residents2022 Census · matched race geography
Demographic source and limits

U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗

Coverage

4 stories · 4 quotes

All coverage and full posts on the Wire →