Call
the Map
FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
← governor3 November 2026 · 51 days out

Pennsylvania · Governor

Open this race on The Map ↗

Josh Shapiro is heavily favored to hold the Pennsylvania governorship. Predicted margin: D+19.5.

Josh Shapiro (D)99 in 10098.7%58.0high 61.9 · low 54.2
Stacy Garrity (R)1 in 1001.3%39.1high 42.9 · low 35.3

high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations

About this field

Shapiro's approval makes him a heavy favorite even in a purple state.

Forecast share averages the simulated vote. Win chance counts how often a candidate wins. A wider range of outcomes can give a candidate a higher win chance despite a lower average share.

Solid D80% range · margin points D+11.6 to D+27.3Democratic-held seat

Forecast history

Steady+0.1 pts · Sep 11 → Sep 13
Aug 1Nov 3 · Election Day

Latest reading · Sep 13 · first published Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points D+11.6 to D+27.3. Methodology

Hover the line, tap it, or use the arrow keys to inspect its history.

About this series

This comparable series begins on September 9, 2026, when the model version changed to CTMM 2.2. Earlier readings remain in the archive and are not joined as voter movement; faded points before September 9, 2026 are reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those days.

Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.

The polls

Ledger weighted average D+19.1Used by the forecast: 15 polls (60-day half-life) · measured D+18.6 · after the fitted poll-error shift D+16.115 recorded polls · 15 eligible for the aggregate · 15 with positive weight

FieldworkAddedPollsterResultSample
from 2026-08-17Franklin & Marshall College ↗D+25.0D 50% · R 25%501 RV
from 2026-08-18Bravo Group ↗PennLiveD+31.2D 56.38% · R 25.19%711 LV
from 2026-08-17The New York Times/Siena University ↗D+16.1D 54.75% · R 38.69%760 LV
from 2026-07-26National Public Affairs (R) ↗D+7.0D 50% · R 43%600 LV
from 2026-07-17Bravo Group ↗PennLiveD+25.3D 53.38% · R 28.11%630 LV
from 2026-07-09Quinnipiac University ↗D+13.0D 53% · R 40%895 RV
from 2026-06-18Bravo Group ↗PennLiveD+24.4D 53.67% · R 29.29%644 LV
from 2026-06-08Franklin & Marshall College ↗D+22.0D 50% · R 28%546 RV
Explore poll adjustments

8 of 15 matching · 15 total

Ledger weighted average D+19.1

Franklin & Marshall College23 Aug · 501 RV · added 30 Aug
Bravo Group22 Aug · 711 LV · added 1 Sep
The New York Times/Siena University21 Aug · 760 LV · added 25 Aug
National Public Affairs (R)30 Jul · 600 LV · added 14 Aug
Bravo Group24 Jul · 630 LV · added 17 Aug
Quinnipiac University13 Jul · 895 RV · added 19 Aug
Bravo Group25 Jun · 644 LV · added 1 Sep
Franklin & Marshall College14 Jun · 546 RV · added 19 Aug
Explore all 15 polls for this race

How the margin was built

Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.

Toward D+21.2
Toward R−1.7
Forecast marginD+19.5

The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded.

All calculations & sources

How this state voted, 2024 −1.710 points

The state's two-party presidential margin in 2024, from our own county sums — the same measurement the model's statewide terrain center is built from. Every pull below is measured from here, not from EVEN, which is why a landslide seat's listed pulls are small numbers and still land where the forecast does.

  • 2024 presidential result for this state, two-party, from Call the Map's own county sums.
  • Same source as Act I's 2024-president reference mark, so the origin lands on it.

Fitted model, above the terrain shown +12.861 points

What the fitted model adds on top of the starting terrain above — incumbency, past results, campaign finance and the other fitted terms — measured from that terrain rather than from EVEN. It is a comparison with the starting point already shown, not a separate input. The source detail lists the variables the fit uses.

  • Fitted baseline 11.151 minus starting point -1.710 = 12.861 points.
  • Fitted intercept: -6.136 points.
  • 2010 White population share used by the frozen historical fit: observed input 81.668. -0.503 × ((81.668 − 77.922) / 12.864) = -0.146 points.
  • gov_midterm_wh: observed input -1.000. -0.987 × ((-1.000 − 0.336) / 0.739) = 1.785 points.
  • 2024 presidential lean relative to the national result: observed input -0.226. 4.163 × ((-0.226 − -4.415) / 20.258) = 0.861 points.
  • Previous governor election margin: observed input 14.770. 1.755 × ((14.770 − -3.131) / 19.227) = 1.634 points.
  • gov_inc_running_signed: observed input 1.000. 2.531 × ((1.000 − -0.120) / 0.708) = 4.001 points.
  • gov_inc_tenure_signed: observed input 1.000. 3.340 × ((1.000 − -0.143) / 0.902) = 4.232 points.
  • The displayed arithmetic is rounded; the fitted terms use full precision. The intercept plus these five terms gives the non-ratings baseline.
  • No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.
  • Certified 2024 presidential baseline: state R+1.7, national R+1.5; subtracting the national margin gives relative lean −0.2. Source: FEC compilation of certified state results.

Historical error calibration +3.264 points

A prior-election residual correction, when an admitted model publishes one.

  • No separate historical residual correction is published in this governor edition.

This race’s polls +3.177 points

What this race’s own recent polling adds beyond its prior, after each poll is weighted for recency, sample size and pollster quality.

  • 15 poll(s) / 7 pollster(s)
  • The admitted polling average is D+19.1, after pollster, sample and recency adjustments.
  • Polling contribution = 73.2% × (19.116 − prior 20.100) = +3.2 points after component rounding.
  • The prior includes national environment and expert ratings. The blend is D+19.4 before the separately disclosed candidate and formula adjustments.

National environment +1.143 points

The contribution to this race’s margin, not the national polling margin itself. The race’s loading, reference level and polling blend determine how much of the national climate reaches its final forecast.

  • The national environment in this edition is D+7.6. This row is its contribution to the race’s prior, not a claim that the country is D+1.1.
  • The environment enters once, through the fitted governor elasticity: 0.4216 × (7.600 − 1.882, the environment the governor priors themselves imply) = +2.4; the producer rounds the contribution to +2.4.
  • Polls receive 73.2% of the blend. They attenuate this contribution to +0.6 in the final center; the offset is included in the polling row.
  • The elasticity is fitted on the pooled panel of contested governor races (2010–2024) with cycle-clustered standard errors; it is a measured response to the national environment, not a judgment floor.

Structural safeguards +0.722 points

Bounded corrections that keep the model consistent with structural facts.

  • No Senate-style structural calibration is used in the governor model.

The components this edition publishes for this race, in points. “Other factors” closes the sum to the two-party structural lean exactly. Here the structural lean IS the published margin, so the walk sums to the projection exactly; nothing is left over.

Named factorContribution
FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race.+11.15
Historical calibrationThe House lane's calibration against certified past cycles.+3.26
This race's pollsAdmitted head-to-head polls of this race, recency- and quality-weighted.+3.18
National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin.+1.14
Structural terrain safeguardA bounded pull toward presidential terrain in heavily partisan states.+0.72
Other factors+0.00

Recent elections

ElectionResultVotes cast
2022 · Governor ↗D+15.05,366,179
2018 · Governor ↗D+17.35,012,555
2014 · Governor ↗D+9.93,495,866
2010 · Governor ↗R+9.03,987,551

Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.

Race context

Forecast votes cast
5,205,053
Forecast turnout
52.7% of the voting-eligible population
2024 presidential margin
R+1.7

Statewide, 53.3% of the voting-eligible population is projected to cast a ballot; the lower figure above is the share projected to vote in this race.

Population profile Select a measure for its source and denominator

White alone · 77.1%10,010,379 of 12,989,208 · Residents2022 Census · matched race geography
Demographic source and limits

U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗

Coverage

3 stories · 4 quotes

All coverage and full posts on the Wire →