Pennsylvania Governor polls 2026
Josh Shapiro (D) vs Stacy Garrity (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageD+21.1the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls2424 on file · 23 in the poll average · 1 not counted
Latest field dateOct 21Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-21 (7 days old)
EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 28, 2026D+21.1today's poll average of 23 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | D+21.1 | D+21.1 |
| Oct 21–Oct 27, 2026 | D+21.1 | D+21.1 |
| Oct 18–Oct 20, 2026 | D+20.9 | D+21.1 |
| Oct 11–Oct 17, 2026 | D+20.9 | D+20.8 to D+21.1 |
| Oct 5–Oct 10, 2026 | D+20.5 | D+20.6 to D+20.8 |
| Oct 1–Oct 4, 2026 | D+19.6 | D+20.4 to D+20.5 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | D+19.8 | D+20.3 |
| Sep 22–Sep 29, 2026 | D+19.4 | D+19.6 to D+20.2 |
| Aug 23–Sep 21, 2026 | D+18.4 | D+18.4 to D+19.5 |
| Aug 22, 2026 | D+17.6 | D+18.3 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | D+16.4 | D+18.2 |
| Jul 30–Aug 20, 2026 | D+16.6 | D+16.6 to D+18.0 |
| Jul 24–Jul 29, 2026 | D+19.4 | D+17.6 to D+16.6 |
| Jul 13–Jul 23, 2026 | D+18.9 | D+18.9 to D+17.9 |
| Jun 25–Jul 12, 2026 | D+20.9 | D+20.9 to D+18.9 |
| Jun 14–Jun 24, 2026 | D+20.6 | D+20.6 to D+20.9 |
| Jun 11–Jun 13, 2026 | D+20.3 | D+20.6 |
| May 24–Jun 10, 2026 | D+21.9 | D+21.9 to D+20.6 |
| Mar 29–May 23, 2026 | D+19.9 | D+19.9 to D+21.9 |
| Mar 1–Mar 28, 2026 | D+18.8 | D+18.8 to D+19.9 |
| Feb 23–Feb 28, 2026 | D+17.7 | D+18.5 to D+18.8 |
| Sep 29–Feb 22, 2026 | D+16.8 | D+16.8 to D+18.4 |
| Sep 28, 2025 | D+18.0 | D+16.8 |
In governor races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+21.0.
Every poll on file · 24
newest added first23 in the poll average · 1 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Franklin & Marshall CollegeGeneral | — LV | D+23.0Josh Shapiro 59Stacy Garrity 36+1 other release | 7d ago | 0.69 | Poll release | |
| ●ActiVoteGeneral · Governor | 400 LV | D+23.0Josh Shapiro 61.5Stacy Garrity 38.5 | 7d ago | 0.50 | Poll release | |
| ●Bravo GroupGeneral | 628 RV | D+30.1Josh Shapiro 57.68Stacy Garrity 27.55Don't know 8.15Someone else 5.84Would not vote 0.78 | 0.56 | Poll release | ||
| ●Z to A ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 630 LV | D+19.0Josh Shapiro 53Stacy Garrity 34Don't know 9Ken Krawchuk 3Would not vote 2 | 0.50 | Pollster post | ||
| ●The New York Times/Siena CollegeGeneral · Governor | 615 LV | D+20.0Josh Shapiro 58Stacy Garrity 38+1 other release | 0.45 | Poll release | ||
| ●Bravo GroupGeneral | 624 RV | D+27.4Josh Shapiro 55.14Stacy Garrity 27.72Someone else 8.66Don't know 7.72Would not vote 0.77 | 0.45 | Poll release | ||
| ●Quinnipiac UniversityGeneral | 1,159 LV | D+25.0Josh Shapiro 59Stacy Garrity 34Don't know 5Ken Krawchuk 2Would not vote 0Someone else 0 | 0.71 | Poll release | ||
| ●Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.General | 700 LV | D+21.0Josh Shapiro 52Stacy Garrity 31Don't know 17 | 0.52 | Pollster post | ||
| ●Franklin & Marshall CollegeGeneral | 501 RV | D+25.0Josh Shapiro 50Stacy Garrity 25Don't know 18Someone else 5Tony Dastra 2 | 0.28 | Poll release | ||
| ●Bravo GroupGeneral | 711 LV | D+31.2Josh Shapiro 56.38Stacy Garrity 25.19Don't know 9.58Someone else 7.42Would not vote 1.17 | 0.33 | Poll release | ||
| ●The New York Times/Siena CollegeGeneral · Governor | 760 LV | D+16.0Josh Shapiro 55Stacy Garrity 39+1 other release | 0.34 | News coverage | ||
| ●National Public AffairsGeneral · Governor · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 600 LV | D+7.0Josh Shapiro 50Stacy Garrity 43 | 0.24 | Poll document |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.