Pennsylvania Governor polls
Josh Shapiro (D) vs Stacy Garrity (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateD+19.1same figure as the race page
Polls1515 recorded polls · 15 eligible for the aggregate · 15 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 23Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-23 (21 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 16
newest first16 in the aggregate · 0 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Franklin & Marshall CollegeGeneral · Governor | 501 RV | Josh Shapiro 50Stacy Garrity 25Tony Dastra 2+1 other release | 0.271 | Poll release | ||
| ●Bravo GroupGeneral · Governor | 711 LV | Josh Shapiro 56Stacy Garrity 25+1 other release | 0.290 | Poll release | ||
| ●The New York Times/Siena CollegeGeneral · Governor | 760 LV | Josh Shapiro 55Stacy Garrity 39+3 other releases | 0.380 | News coverage | ||
| ●National Public AffairsGeneral · Governor · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 600 LV | Josh Shapiro 50Stacy Garrity 43 | 0.125 | Poll document | ||
| ●Bravo GroupGeneral · Governor | 630 LV | Josh Shapiro 53Stacy Garrity 28+1 other release | 0.105 | Poll release | ||
| ●Quinnipiac UniversityGeneral | 895 RV | Josh Shapiro 53Stacy Garrity 40Don't know 6Would not vote 1Someone else 1 | 0.104 | Poll release | ||
| ●Bravo GroupGeneral | 644 LV | Josh Shapiro 53.67Stacy Garrity 29.29Don't know 9.47Someone else 6.33Would not vote 1.23 | 0.041 | Poll release | ||
| ●Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion ResearchGeneral · Governor | 546 RV | Josh Shapiro 50Stacy Garrity 28 | 0.028 | Poll release | ||
| ●Franklin & Marshall CollegeGeneral | 546 RV | Josh Shapiro 50Stacy Garrity 28Don't know 16Someone else 6 | 0.028 | Poll release | ||
| ●MAD Global StrategyGeneral · Governor | 600 LV | Josh Shapiro 48Stacy Garrity 31+1 other release | 0.025 | Poll release | ||
| ●Bravo GroupGeneral · Governor | 684 LV | Josh Shapiro 53Stacy Garrity 29+1 other release | 0.015 | Poll release | ||
| ●Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.General · Governor · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 700 LV | Josh Shapiro 58Stacy Garrity 36+1 other release | 0.002 | Pollster post |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.