Call
the Map
FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
Race polling · GOV-PA

Pennsylvania Governor polls

Josh Shapiro (D) vs Stacy Garrity (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Adjusted aggregateD+19.1same figure as the race page
Polls1515 recorded polls · 15 eligible for the aggregate · 15 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 23Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-23 (21 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition

The polls the model reads

hover, tap or Tab to any poll
last 30 daysEVEND+10D+20D+30Nov ’25Jan ’26MarMayJulSep
  • counted poll · area is its model weight
  • weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
  • poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
  • published average
  • 30 days before this edition

Every poll on file · 16

newest first

16 in the aggregate · 0 shown, not counted

PollsterFieldedAddedSampleResultWeightSource
Franklin & Marshall CollegeGeneral · Governor501 RVJosh Shapiro 50Stacy Garrity 25Tony Dastra 2+1 other release0.271Poll release
Bravo GroupGeneral · Governor711 LVJosh Shapiro 56Stacy Garrity 25+1 other release0.290Poll release
The New York Times/Siena CollegeGeneral · Governor760 LVJosh Shapiro 55Stacy Garrity 39+3 other releases0.380News coverage
National Public AffairsGeneral · Governor · REP sponsor · REP partisan600 LVJosh Shapiro 50Stacy Garrity 430.125Poll document
Bravo GroupGeneral · Governor630 LVJosh Shapiro 53Stacy Garrity 28+1 other release0.105Poll release
Quinnipiac UniversityGeneral895 RVJosh Shapiro 53Stacy Garrity 40Don't know 6Would not vote 1Someone else 10.104Poll release
Bravo GroupGeneral644 LVJosh Shapiro 53.67Stacy Garrity 29.29Don't know 9.47Someone else 6.33Would not vote 1.230.041Poll release
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion ResearchGeneral · Governor546 RVJosh Shapiro 50Stacy Garrity 280.028Poll release
Franklin & Marshall CollegeGeneral546 RVJosh Shapiro 50Stacy Garrity 28Don't know 16Someone else 60.028Poll release
MAD Global StrategyGeneral · Governor600 LVJosh Shapiro 48Stacy Garrity 31+1 other release0.025Poll release
Bravo GroupGeneral · Governor684 LVJosh Shapiro 53Stacy Garrity 29+1 other release0.015Poll release
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.General · Governor · REP sponsor · REP partisan700 LVJosh Shapiro 58Stacy Garrity 36+1 other release0.002Pollster post

Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.