Colorado · Governor
Open this race on The Map ↗Phil Weiser is heavily favored to keep the Colorado governorship in Democratic hands. Predicted margin: D+21.0.
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
About this field
Polis is term-limited; Weiser and Marx won their party primaries. The general election leans safely blue.
Forecast share averages the simulated vote. Win chance counts how often a candidate wins. A wider range of outcomes can give a candidate a higher win chance despite a lower average share.
Forecast history
Latest reading · Sep 13 · first published Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points D+10.6 to D+31.3. Methodology
Hover the line, tap it, or use the arrow keys to inspect its history.
About this series
This comparable series begins on September 9, 2026, when the model version changed to CTMM 2.2. Earlier readings remain in the archive and are not joined as voter movement; faded points before September 9, 2026 are reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those days.
Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.
How the margin was built
Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.
The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded.
All calculations & sources
How this state voted, 2024 +10.990 points
The state's two-party presidential margin in 2024, from our own county sums — the same measurement the model's statewide terrain center is built from. Every pull below is measured from here, not from EVEN, which is why a landslide seat's listed pulls are small numbers and still land where the forecast does.
- 2024 presidential result for this state, two-party, from Call the Map's own county sums.
- Same source as Act I's 2024-president reference mark, so the origin lands on it.
Fitted model, above the terrain shown +4.493 points
What the fitted model adds on top of the starting terrain above — incumbency, past results, campaign finance and the other fitted terms — measured from that terrain rather than from EVEN. It is a comparison with the starting point already shown, not a separate input. The source detail lists the variables the fit uses.
- Fitted baseline 15.483 minus starting point 10.990 = 4.493 points.
- Fitted intercept: -6.136 points.
- 2010 White population share used by the frozen historical fit: observed input 81.155. -0.503 × ((81.155 − 77.922) / 12.864) = -0.126 points.
- gov_midterm_wh: observed input -1.000. -0.987 × ((-1.000 − 0.336) / 0.739) = 1.785 points.
- 2024 presidential lean relative to the national result: observed input 12.793. 4.163 × ((12.793 − -4.415) / 20.258) = 3.536 points.
- Previous governor election margin: observed input 19.350. 1.755 × ((19.350 − -3.131) / 19.227) = 2.053 points.
- gov_inc_running_signed: observed input 0.000. 2.531 × ((0.000 − -0.120) / 0.708) = 0.428 points.
- gov_inc_tenure_signed: observed input 0.000. 3.340 × ((0.000 − -0.143) / 0.902) = 0.529 points.
- The displayed arithmetic is rounded; the fitted terms use full precision. The intercept plus these five terms gives the non-ratings baseline.
- No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.
- Certified 2024 presidential baseline: state D+11.3, national R+1.5; subtracting the national margin gives relative lean +12.8. Source: FEC compilation of certified state results.
Historical error calibration +3.466 points
A prior-election residual correction, when an admitted model publishes one.
- No separate historical residual correction is published in this governor edition.
National environment +1.143 points
The contribution to this race’s margin, not the national polling margin itself. The race’s loading, reference level and polling blend determine how much of the national climate reaches its final forecast.
- The national environment in this edition is D+7.6. This row is its contribution to the race’s prior, not a claim that the country is D+1.1.
- The environment enters once, through the fitted governor elasticity: 0.4216 × (7.600 − 1.882, the environment the governor priors themselves imply) = +2.4; the producer rounds the contribution to +2.4.
- No admitted polling attenuates this contribution here; it reaches the final center in full.
- The elasticity is fitted on the pooled panel of contested governor races (2010–2024) with cycle-clustered standard errors; it is a measured response to the national environment, not a judgment floor.
Structural safeguards +0.874 points
Bounded corrections that keep the model consistent with structural facts.
- No Senate-style structural calibration is used in the governor model.
The components this edition publishes for this race, in points. “Other factors” closes the sum to the two-party structural lean exactly. Here the structural lean IS the published margin, so the walk sums to the projection exactly; nothing is left over.
| Named factor | Contribution |
|---|---|
| FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race. | +15.48 |
| Historical calibrationThe House lane's calibration against certified past cycles. | +3.47 |
| National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin. | +1.14 |
| Structural terrain safeguardA bounded pull toward presidential terrain in heavily partisan states. | +0.87 |
| Other factors | 0.00 |
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 · Governor ↗ | D+19.8 | 2,508,830 |
| 2018 · Governor ↗ | D+11.0 | 2,525,062 |
| 2014 · Governor ↗ | D+3.5 | 2,041,605 |
| 2010 · Governor ↗ | D+64.2 | 1,793,148 |
Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 2,475,166
- Forecast turnout
- 55.3% of the voting-eligible population
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+11.3
Statewide, 56.6% of the voting-eligible population is projected to cast a ballot; the lower figure above is the share projected to vote in this race.
Population profile Select a measure for its source and denominator
U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗
Coverage
1 story · 2 quotes
- Victor Marx, the Republican nominee for Colorado governor, is starting to feel the heat from state elections officials over a litany of alleged violations of campaign finance laws. ↗
Colorado Newsline · Official · Sep 4
curated state newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match · election-topic match - Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser is suing the Trump administration over its attempt to prohibit states from using federal Medicaid funds for gender-affirming healthcare. ↗
Colorado Newsline · Official · Sep 3
curated state newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match - $17B Meta settlement puts focus on youth mental health crisis, Colorado AG says ↗
PBS NewsHour Politics · Aug 26