{ "expected_D_wins_of_36": 19.00246, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_term_policy": { "model": "CTMM 2.1", "twin_poll_residual": { "comparison": "docs/model/twin-migration-2026-09-08/comparison.json", "comparison_sha256": "b3be811d276513517c830a24d5cc72166de45a9935ff061eaa1832ded1dea90b", "decision": "docs/model/twin-migration-2026-09-08/DECISION.md", "disposition": "RETIRED_FROM_CTMM21_RETAINED_IN_V1", "forecast_effect": "No frozen v1 overlay is added. CTMM 2.1 candidate centers and draws are unchanged by this term policy. Legacy same-party latent-coordinate explanations are replaced with the already computed current coordinate.", "legacy_artifact_sha256": "ee43f0fa35ca8225a4a16d180434ae5fbdecdf6ee452504832ac97af6d600bcd" } }, "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "races": [ { "band": { "p10": -21.855443122829385, "p90": -1.9750084085311972 }, "base": -11.915225765680292, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-al-allen-wes-a6dc42a4", "cand-us-al-bishop-pat-1c56d3a9", "cand-us-al-boyd-will-bebf0c81", "cand-us-al-brown-jamel-aa50de8f", "cand-us-al-childress-george-d7f0a7d6", "cand-us-al-ensler-phillip-5ee50e8a", "cand-us-al-flowers-yolanda-1e5bd979", "cand-us-al-jones-doug-0444c667", "cand-us-al-martin-chad-df7be52a", "cand-us-al-mathis-nathan-84650d7b", "cand-us-al-mcfeeters-ken-552138ed", "cand-us-al-pate-rick-015d4b20", "cand-us-al-perryman-darryl-370eae61", "cand-us-al-santivasci-alabama-5faba042", "cand-us-al-tankersley-stewart-0bf983df", "cand-us-al-tuberville-thomas-297e6881", "cand-us-al-wadsworth-nicole-e1a58a5f", "cand-us-al-wahl-john-a0071966" ], "centre_v2_stack": -10.984669316887443, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -11.344012818839449, "historical_calibration": -0.9305564487928493, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -0.47156802160501954, "structural_calibration": -0.1313705254677604 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": -0.1313705254677604, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": -0.9305564487928493, "polls": -0.47156802160501954, "prior": -11.344012818839449 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.246948870732985, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-AL:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.93423, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Tommy Tuberville", "party": "R", "share_mean": 55.379319699993275, "share_p10": 50.92336674181071, "share_p90": 59.86782319335582, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.93423 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-AL:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.06577, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Doug Jones", "party": "D", "share_mean": 43.569793344750934, "share_p10": 39.092630661517134, "share_p90": 48.02176127785539, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.06577 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 1.0508869552557816, "p10": 0.2764555183673727, "p90": 2.121502240649379 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": -11.915225765680292, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.246948870732985, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-AL:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-AL:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.06577, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": -11.915225765680292, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.06577, "sigma": 7.246948870732985 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": -0.9305564487928493, "interval50": [ -17.040365242653863, -6.7900862887067195 ], "interval95": [ -28.465415077401232, 4.63496354604065 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.06532253752147921, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 6577 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.06577, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": -11.915225765680292, "candidate_mean_share": { "Doug Jones": 43.569793344750934, "Tommy Tuberville": 55.379319699993275 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 11.80952635524234, "leader_id": "GOV-AL:R", "leader_margin": 11.80952635524234, "leader_party": "R", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-AL:D", "two_party_dr_margin": -11.915225765680292 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid R|Solid R|Safe R|Likely R", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -29.381116122523352, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -30.88122385938789 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": 0.353287980284674, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 68.87800800738991, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 68.87800800738991 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": -5.130535671916073, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -29.381116122523352, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -29.381116122523352 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": -3.1589896353086027, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": -37.73, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": -37.73 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": -9.808707002845962, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": -15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": -15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 0.4280573876534452, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 0.96, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": -37.7, "poll_blend": "2 poll(s) / 2 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": -11.402060810673817, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": -8.18307490339949, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": -18.655457000000002 }, "pres_lean": -29, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": -27.9 }, "open": true, "p": "Alabama", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.983722107347793, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": -11.915225765680292, "final_p_d": 0.06577, "final_total_sigma": 7.756392816644066, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": -8.619577965458868, "n_eff": 0.5317964313904812 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.246948870732985, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.983722107347793, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-AL", "rating": "Likely R", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.06577 }, { "band": { "p10": -10.464445153922561, "p90": 9.14424660536536 }, "base": -0.6600992742786, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_MULTIPARTY_FIELD", "binary_withheld_reason": "TWO_PARTY_MARGIN_NOT_APPLICABLE_CANDIDATE_FIELD_PUBLISHED", "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-ak-begich-tom-97563ed4", "cand-us-ak-bishop-click-9786018c", "cand-us-ak-bronson-dave-81721469", "cand-us-ak-crum-adam-dba997ed", "cand-us-ak-devries-edna-35b1bcd1", "cand-us-ak-gilbert-michael-3ba6e2c0", "cand-us-ak-heilala-matt-2da1cc39", "cand-us-ak-hughes-shelley-efffe252", "cand-us-ak-kroll-henry-baac31c7", "cand-us-ak-mcguire-lesil-aad92d34", "cand-us-ak-parkin-james-5b13ea9c", "cand-us-ak-payne-destry-e5e70956", "cand-us-ak-taylor-treg-97ee0111", "cand-us-ak-tomkins-jonathan-24c7342b", "cand-us-ak-wilson-bernadette-70485c0e" ], "centre_v2_stack": -1.234419724387238, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -4.156303017264001, "historical_calibration": 0.5743204501086379, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": 1.9596012438519772, "structural_calibration": 0 }, "decomp_candidate": { "final_lead": -4.034965214907146, "leader_id": "GOV-AK:D:1", "leader_party": "D", "metric": "leader_share_minus_runner_up_share", "note": "stage deltas telescope exactly from the origin lead to the published lead (leader share minus runner-up share from the joint simulation); dr_centre_after is the D-vs-R coordinate after each stage; the candidate_field step is the simulation's own field layer", "origin_lead": 0, "reconciliation_residual": 0, "runner_up_id": "GOV-AK:R:1", "steps": [ { "delta": -2.228884960528177, "dr_centre_after": -4.156303017264001, "key": "fundamentals", "pair_margin_after": -2.228884960528177 }, { "delta": 0.5160393691096772, "dr_centre_after": -3.194020968239215, "key": "environment", "pair_margin_after": -1.7128455914184997 }, { "delta": 0, "dr_centre_after": -3.194020968239215, "key": "money", "pair_margin_after": -1.7128455914184997 }, { "delta": 1.0508679763991715, "dr_centre_after": -1.234419724387238, "key": "polls", "pair_margin_after": -0.6619776150193282 }, { "delta": 0, "dr_centre_after": -1.234419724387238, "key": "expert_ratings", "pair_margin_after": -0.6619776150193282 }, { "delta": 0, "dr_centre_after": -1.234419724387238, "key": "structural_calibration", "pair_margin_after": -0.6619776150193282 }, { "delta": 0.3079886640732923, "dr_centre_after": -0.6600992742786, "key": "historical_calibration", "pair_margin_after": -0.3539889509460359 }, { "delta": -3.68097626396111, "dr_centre_after": -0.6600992742786, "key": "candidate_field", "pair_margin_after": -4.034965214907146 } ], "sum_of_steps": -4.034965214907146 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 0.5743204501086379, "polls": 1.9596012438519772, "prior": -4.156303017264001 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.143678878117073, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-AK:R:1", "claim_strength": "THROUGH_ROUND", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.304425428, "incumbent": null, "is_generic": false, "name": "Bernadette Wilson", "party": "R", "share_mean": 28.83079423644306, "share_p10": 21.90285999358729, "share_p90": 35.81795052979883, "through_runoff_win_prob": 0.421875, "win_prob": 0.304425428 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-AK:D:1", "claim_strength": "THROUGH_ROUND", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.349774572, "incumbent": null, "is_generic": false, "name": "Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins", "party": "D", "share_mean": 24.795829021535916, "share_p10": 18.10015564455355, "share_p90": 31.573658928288506, "through_runoff_win_prob": 0.232325, "win_prob": 0.349774572 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-AK:D:2", "claim_strength": "THROUGH_ROUND", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.1667, "incumbent": null, "is_generic": false, "name": "Tom Begich", "party": "D", "share_mean": 23.527025729294028, "share_p10": 16.93114498839941, "share_p90": 30.320190419782136, "through_runoff_win_prob": 0.1667, "win_prob": 0.1667 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-AK:R:2", "claim_strength": "THROUGH_ROUND", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.1791, "incumbent": null, "is_generic": false, "name": "Dave Bronson", "party": "R", "share_mean": 22.84635101272699, "share_p10": 16.137612665244866, "share_p90": 29.798781282000444, "through_runoff_win_prob": 0.1791, "win_prob": 0.1791 } ], "claim_strength": "THROUGH_ROUND", "election_rule_id": "ak-top-four-rcv", "election_rule_kind": "top_four_rcv", "field_status": "MULTIPARTY_TOP_FOUR", "other_share": { "mean": 4.2483542552915887e-16, "p10": 4.2483542552915883e-16, "p90": 4.2483542552915897e-16 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": true, "through_runoff_note": "ak-top-four-rcv: a candidate needs a majority, so the published win probability is a THROUGH-ROUND probability simulated from first preferences under a declared bounded transfer assumption.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 0.000025, "two_party": { "center": -0.6600992742786, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.143678878117073, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-AK:D:1", "pivot_b": "GOV-AK:R:1", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.46534, "pivot_scope": "PARTY_BLOCS", "published_base": -0.6600992742786, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.46534, "sigma": 7.143678878117073 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 0.5743204501086379, "interval50": [ -5.7138203906898255, 4.3936218421326245 ], "interval95": [ -17.0130863046548, 15.692887756097598 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.46469951043026847, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 46534 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.46534, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": -0.6600992742786, "candidate_mean_share": { "Bernadette Wilson": 28.83079423644306, "Dave Bronson": 22.84635101272699, "Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins": 24.795829021535916, "Tom Begich": 23.527025729294028 }, "candidate_pair_margin": -4.034965214907146, "leader_id": "GOV-AK:D:1", "leader_margin": -4.034965214907146, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "field_lead", "runner_up_id": "GOV-AK:R:1", "two_party_dr_margin": -0.6600992742786 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Likely R|Solid R|Likely R|Tossup", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -12.1930173478854, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -13.69312508474994 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": 0.42621793307233646, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 67.01105927746563, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 67.01105927746563 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": -1.5983802219673924, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -12.1930173478854, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -12.1930173478854 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 0.10143884389363746, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": true, "raw": null, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": -2.02 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": -4.478599942034008, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": -7.5, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": -7.5 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 0.4280573876534452, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 0.96, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": -26.1, "poll_blend": "1 poll(s) / 1 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": -2.025453920331925, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": 0, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": -6.589444 }, "pres_lean": -12.2, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": -12.6 }, "open": true, "p": "Alaska", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.9447069000441735, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": -0.6600992742786, "final_p_d": 0.46534, "final_total_sigma": 7.6503717394138295, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": 2, "n_eff": 0.6681740386052545 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.143678878117073, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.9447069000441735, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-AK", "rating": "Tilt R", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.46534 }, { "band": { "p10": -0.6408745024574829, "p90": 14.570639663489 }, "base": 6.964882580515758, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-az-biggs-andy-5320ff37", "cand-us-az-hobbs-katie-65fce23a", "cand-us-az-lombardo-risa-700d3947", "cand-us-az-miceli-ken-8d3e0e2f", "cand-us-az-neely-scott-d9505370", "cand-us-az-schweikert-david-d3ed80da" ], "centre_v2_stack": 5.371057013641968, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": 8.481804587052324, "historical_calibration": 1.5938255668737904, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -4.073029622435142, "structural_calibration": 0 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 1.5938255668737904, "polls": -4.073029622435142, "prior": 8.481804587052324 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 5.487933795932182, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-AZ:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.86983, "incumbent": true, "is_generic": false, "name": "Katie Hobbs", "party": "D", "share_mean": 52.1042471368534, "share_p10": 47.50287391433749, "share_p90": 56.65606487143516, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.86983 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-AZ:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.13017, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Andy Biggs", "party": "R", "share_mean": 45.34895726812028, "share_p10": 40.83935241989443, "share_p90": 49.86544745765079, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.13017 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 2.5467955950263206, "p10": 0.6860846518542845, "p90": 5.12448682210645 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": 6.964882580515758, "distribution": { "core_scale": 5.487933795932182, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-AZ:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-AZ:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.86983, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 6.964882580515758, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.86983, "sigma": 5.487933795932182 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 1.5938255668737904, "interval50": [ 3.0623711430874563, 10.867394017944061 ], "interval95": [ -6.171345264803823, 20.10111042583534 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.8812297661686429, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 86983 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.86983, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 6.964882580515758, "candidate_mean_share": { "Andy Biggs": 45.34895726812028, "Katie Hobbs": 52.1042471368534 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 6.755289868733122, "leader_id": "GOV-AZ:D", "leader_margin": 6.755289868733122, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-AZ:R", "two_party_dr_margin": 6.964882580515758 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Tossup|Tossup|Lean D|Tilt D", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -4.088210184868828, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -5.588317921733368 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": 0.1908652987640892, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 73.03589934537867, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 73.03589934537867 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 0.06715819312907838, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -4.088210184868828, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -4.088210184868828 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 0.34704378954062787, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": 0.67, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": 0.67 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 2.6282094723819314, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 2.5, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 2.5 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 4.000690199991815, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 1 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 4.231727069178616, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 1 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 8.23, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": 0.7, "poll_blend": "20 poll(s) / 13 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 7.694589331630505, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.32971527480833235, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": 7.401669530017062, "poll_weight": 0.8626186354965282, "prior_D": 9.533835 }, "pres_lean": -3.8, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": 6.3 }, "open": false, "p": "Arizona", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.9447069000441735, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 6.964882580515758, "final_p_d": 0.86983, "final_total_sigma": 5.934803785863385, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": 6.985208916153712, "n_eff": 7.615233353648355 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 5.487933795932182, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.9447069000441735, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-AZ", "rating": "Lean D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.86983 }, { "band": { "p10": -21.259822621336337, "p90": -4.260727196971896 }, "base": -12.760274909154116, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-ctm-gov-ar-r-sanders-sarah", "cand-us-ar-love-fred-d77e12f4", "cand-us-ar-mays-supha-63312698" ], "centre_v2_stack": -11.716730397950618, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -22.007919100786932, "historical_calibration": -1.043544511203498, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": 9.557945754144365, "structural_calibration": -0.22903910033283736 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": -0.22903910033283736, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": -1.043544511203498, "polls": 9.557945754144365, "prior": -22.007919100786932 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.157514222781, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-AR:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.96399, "incumbent": true, "is_generic": false, "name": "Sarah Huckabee Sanders", "party": "R", "share_mean": 54.844349370412424, "share_p10": 50.1728989921662, "share_p90": 59.521816524420295, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.96399 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-AR:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.03601, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Fredrick Love", "party": "D", "share_mean": 42.43505590985131, "share_p10": 37.845581499330365, "share_p90": 46.968649620021225, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.03601 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 2.7205947197362583, "p10": 0.7349033184831711, "p90": 5.471722040045241 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": -12.760274909154116, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.157514222781, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-AR:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-AR:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.03601, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": -12.760274909154116, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.03601, "sigma": 6.157514222781 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": -1.043544511203498, "interval50": [ -17.12973839579676, -8.390811422511472 ], "interval95": [ -27.210819832170767, 1.6902700138625342 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.035461719280349135, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 3601 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.03601, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": -12.760274909154116, "candidate_mean_share": { "Fredrick Love": 42.43505590985131, "Sarah Huckabee Sanders": 54.844349370412424 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 12.409293460561116, "leader_id": "GOV-AR:R", "leader_margin": 12.409293460561116, "leader_party": "R", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-AR:D", "two_party_dr_margin": -12.760274909154116 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid R|Solid R|Safe R|Safe R", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -29.83987873543221, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -31.33998647229675 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": 0.017152735709473222, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 77.48280266246911, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 77.48280266246911 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": -5.2248114196101545, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -29.83987873543221, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -29.83987873543221 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": -2.2496122157383343, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": -27.77, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": -27.77 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": -9.808707002845962, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": -15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": -15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": -3.144575424684924, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": -3.173795301883963, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": -1 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": -6.32, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": -27.8, "poll_blend": "1 poll(s) / 1 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": -13.370607945545967, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": -8, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": -25.472291 }, "pres_lean": -29.7, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": -28.9 }, "open": false, "p": "Arkansas", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 7.022737314651411, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": -12.760274909154116, "final_p_d": 0.03601, "final_total_sigma": 6.632232319555791, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": -5, "n_eff": 1.0305972974739386 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.157514222781, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 7.022737314651411, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-AR", "rating": "Solid R", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.03601 }, { "band": { "p10": 16.29525214924614, "p90": 35.11094553020983 }, "base": 25.703098839727986, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-ctm-gov-ca-r-jones-brandon", "cand-ctm-gov-ca-r-parker-jimmy", "cand-ctm-gov-ca-r-taylor-ebony", "cand-us-ca-agbede-akinyemi-ce309444", "cand-us-ca-ahn-che-f74e50d0", "cand-us-ca-arif-mohammad-4c8c8359", "cand-us-ca-athans-james-e7e3c3c1", "cand-us-ca-azevedo-larry-970b1f01", "cand-us-ca-barraicua-louis-4fb1ddd7", "cand-us-ca-basualdo-patricia-99817d5c", "cand-us-ca-becerra-xavier-2bfba65a", "cand-us-ca-bianco-chad-6b78bebb", "cand-us-ca-buhler-carolina-045e0528", "cand-us-ca-dhillon-randeep-a0ee5e3f", "cand-us-ca-grasty-derek-673de648", "cand-us-ca-hernandez-rafael-1d23c8f1", "cand-us-ca-hilton-steve-c604ba28", "cand-us-ca-jacob-joel-6f08992a", "cand-us-ca-kidgell-gary-e82cafd9", "cand-us-ca-lapp-alicia-0c0b4184", "cand-us-ca-levy-matthew-f70835bb", "cand-us-ca-mahan-matt-9cbc5ae2", "cand-us-ca-meky-kalid-fa9720a7", "cand-us-ca-naranjo-leo-3e5bef78", "cand-us-ca-nelson-tim-2c98597f", "cand-us-ca-parley-thunder-19ed417d", "cand-us-ca-peavy-jibri-4d107a78", "cand-us-ca-porter-katie-99a0753f", "cand-us-ca-rab-raji-a144cf72", "cand-us-ca-rao-satish-51a12f46", "cand-us-ca-sam-sophia-774e1649", "cand-us-ca-shaw-barack-9e87e551", "cand-us-ca-shields-scott-9f15cda7", "cand-us-ca-solorzano-gretha-f3be88e7", "cand-us-ca-steyer-tom-d345b478", "cand-us-ca-swalwell-eric-bd4e12d6", "cand-us-ca-thurmond-tony-2286f73f", "cand-us-ca-villaraigosa-antonio-51407db1", "cand-us-ca-yee-betty-e52959bb", "cand-us-ca-zacky-leo-a40aa0ff", "cand-us-ca-zezulak-erin-a51f3176", "cand-us-ca-zickefoose-david-f2cd8f6a" ], "centre_v2_stack": 21.60386306741128, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": 21.09935917553116, "historical_calibration": 4.099235772316707, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -2.0059177837966153, "structural_calibration": 1.548139626651949 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 1.548139626651949, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 4.099235772316707, "polls": -2.0059177837966153, "prior": 21.09935917553116 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.842934980521696, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-CA:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.99182, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Xavier Becerra", "party": "D", "share_mean": 62.84423327142583, "share_p10": 58.31112515340339, "share_p90": 67.3385676132543, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.99182 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-CA:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.008179999999999965, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Steve Hilton", "party": "R", "share_mean": 37.155766728574164, "share_p10": 32.6614323867457, "share_p90": 41.68887484659661, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.008179999999999965 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "ca-top-two", "election_rule_kind": "top_two_general", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 4.2483542552915887e-16, "p10": 4.2483542552915887e-16, "p90": 4.2483542552915887e-16 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "ca-top-two: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": 25.703098839727986, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.842934980521696, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-CA:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-CA:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.99182, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 25.703098839727986, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.99182, "sigma": 6.842934980521696 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 4.099235772316707, "interval50": [ 20.85761685647229, 30.54858082298368 ], "interval95": [ 9.926478756517994, 41.47971892293798 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.9914192744834393, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 99182 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.99182, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 25.703098839727986, "candidate_mean_share": { "Steve Hilton": 37.155766728574164, "Xavier Becerra": 62.84423327142583 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 25.688466542851664, "leader_id": "GOV-CA:D", "leader_margin": 25.688466542851664, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-CA:R", "two_party_dr_margin": 25.703098839727986 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid D|Solid D|Safe D|Safe D", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": 22.300392880461217, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": 20.80028514359668 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": 0.7950838461613309, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 57.568385566173234, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 57.568385566173234 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 5.490017891333326, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": 22.300392880461217, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": 22.300392880461217 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 1.962193041769349, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": 18.36, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": 18.36 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 11.511721240401856, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 0.4280573876534452, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 0.96, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": 18.4, "poll_blend": "5 poll(s) / 4 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 20.281901070071278, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": 20.939554193659628, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": 18.799999999999997 }, "pres_lean": 22.9, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": 25.3 }, "open": true, "p": "California", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 7.061752521955031, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 25.703098839727986, "final_p_d": 0.99182, "final_total_sigma": 7.340981778196296, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": 22.110353529307094, "n_eff": 2.4480237176432054 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.842934980521696, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 7.061752521955031, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-CA", "rating": "Solid D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.99182 }, { "band": { "p10": 8.712384070762013, "p90": 29.42330870020281 }, "base": 19.06784638548241, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-co-bennet-michael-b03f1061", "cand-us-co-bottoms-scott-48b8664d", "cand-us-co-kirkmeyer-barb-082abb16", "cand-us-co-marx-victor-65b48857", "cand-us-co-weiser-phil-9f2bebfd" ], "centre_v2_stack": 15.855783062484843, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": 14.112246550920752, "historical_calibration": 3.212063322997569, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": 0, "structural_calibration": 0.7812544625393052 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0.7812544625393052, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 3.212063322997569, "polls": 0, "prior": 14.112246550920752 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.56322131882288, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-CO:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.98084, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Phil Weiser", "party": "D", "share_mean": 57.698754030206985, "share_p10": 52.947078625106926, "share_p90": 62.39500913781941, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.98084 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-CO:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.019159999999999955, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Victor Marx", "party": "R", "share_mean": 39.148668050748064, "share_p10": 34.603183303794616, "share_p90": 43.713958268963076, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.019159999999999955 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 3.1525779190449508, "p10": 0.8573525385637326, "p90": 6.333064078719963 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": 19.06784638548241, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.56322131882288, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-CO:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-CO:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.98084, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 19.06784638548241, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.98084, "sigma": 7.56322131882288 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 3.212063322997569, "interval50": [ 13.724258301479708, 24.411434469485116 ], "interval95": [ 1.9158569832058987, 36.219835787758925 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.9818620945327148, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 98084 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.98084, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 19.06784638548241, "candidate_mean_share": { "Phil Weiser": 57.698754030206985, "Victor Marx": 39.148668050748064 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 18.55008597945892, "leader_id": "GOV-CO:D", "leader_margin": 18.55008597945892, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-CO:R", "two_party_dr_margin": 19.06784638548241 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid D|Solid D|Safe D|Likely D", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": 12.793191198997462, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": 11.293083462132921 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": -0.1263136229732116, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 81.15542722743126, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 81.15542722743126 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 3.536287308722638, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": 12.793191198997462, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": 12.793191198997462 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 2.0525829660037433, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": 19.35, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": 19.35 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 11.511721240401856, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 0.4280573876534452, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 0.96, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": 19.4, "poll_blend": null, "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 16.036552, "environment_after_polling_D": 2.4, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": null, "poll_weight": 0, "prior_D": 16.036552 }, "pres_lean": 11.7, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": 17.8 }, "open": true, "p": "Colorado", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.983722107347791, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 19.06784638548241, "final_p_d": 0.98084, "final_total_sigma": 8.080410178672603, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": null, "n_eff": 0 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.56322131882288, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.983722107347791, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-CO", "rating": "Solid D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.98084 }, { "band": { "p10": 12.483821830829026, "p90": 29.12737576463577 }, "base": 20.805598797732397, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-ctm-gov-ct-r-fazio-ryan", "cand-us-ct-elliott-josh-0778f62e", "cand-us-ct-lamont-ned-76d43bc9" ], "centre_v2_stack": 17.36118771185512, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": 22.505815734067284, "historical_calibration": 3.4444110858772774, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -7.089009422956437, "structural_calibration": 0.9820993517194871 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0.9820993517194871, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 3.4444110858772774, "polls": -7.089009422956437, "prior": 22.505815734067284 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.023947271819131, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-CT:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.98845, "incumbent": true, "is_generic": false, "name": "Ned Lamont", "party": "D", "share_mean": 58.58815143060479, "share_p10": 53.842477092795626, "share_p90": 63.28149393677022, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.98845 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-CT:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.01154999999999995, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Ryan Fazio", "party": "R", "share_mean": 38.35269920692424, "share_p10": 33.82405710235865, "share_p90": 42.90469518309866, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.01154999999999995 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 3.0591493624709734, "p10": 0.8307352902498897, "p90": 6.146988782749575 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": 20.805598797732397, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.023947271819131, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-CT:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-CT:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.98845, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 20.805598797732397, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.98845, "sigma": 6.023947271819131 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 3.4444110858772774, "interval50": [ 16.52912869088176, 25.082068904583036 ], "interval95": [ 6.615653869442109, 34.99554372602269 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.9882912039436098, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 98845 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.98845, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 20.805598797732397, "candidate_mean_share": { "Ned Lamont": 58.58815143060479, "Ryan Fazio": 38.35269920692424 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 20.235452223680547, "leader_id": "GOV-CT:D", "leader_margin": 20.235452223680547, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-CT:R", "two_party_dr_margin": 20.805598797732397 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid D|Solid D|Safe D|Likely D", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": 16.256572709382876, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": 14.756464972518335 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": 0.016692918926705616, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 77.49457360603581, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 77.49457360603581 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 4.248012441185232, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": 16.256572709382876, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": 16.256572709382876 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 1.3230723653645413, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": 11.36, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": 11.36 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 11.511721240401856, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 4.000690199991815, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 1 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 7.934488254709906, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 2, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 2 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 11.94, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": 11.4, "poll_blend": "3 poll(s) / 2 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 18.230426842556398, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": 14.275473981303355, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": 27.14219 }, "pres_lean": 16.2, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": 21.4 }, "open": false, "p": "Connecticut", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.983722107347791, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 20.805598797732397, "final_p_d": 0.98845, "final_total_sigma": 6.493517069964328, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": 16.940552141559706, "n_eff": 1.7292587369202017 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.023947271819131, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.983722107347791, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-CT", "rating": "Solid D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.98845 }, { "band": { "p10": -14.582945330545076, "p90": 3.1834494836916436 }, "base": -5.699747923426716, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-ctm-gov-fl-d-jolly-david", "cand-us-fl-atkins-joey-13b18a84", "cand-us-fl-bach-evelyn-1b04817d", "cand-us-fl-collige-frank-e64ae30a", "cand-us-fl-collins-jay-ca1b6e12", "cand-us-fl-donalds-byron-0ae47f80", "cand-us-fl-fernandez-thomas-ba23b40d", "cand-us-fl-ford-earle-fa69dade", "cand-us-fl-foster-dayna-ce409bca", "cand-us-fl-fox-amira-a0377156", "cand-us-fl-holcomb-jim-4aeba3ab", "cand-us-fl-ingoglia-blaise-e5977845", "cand-us-fl-joseph-dotie-51c7da1a", "cand-us-fl-mccaffrey-arthur-805bbb54", "cand-us-fl-nokovich-daniel-2889f995", "cand-us-fl-norman-stephann-0e3d948e", "cand-us-fl-prichard-donald-51913190", "cand-us-fl-renner-paul-a737c5b5", "cand-us-fl-rodriguez-jose-36468724", "cand-us-fl-rodriguez-rachel-3ff9a8b1", "cand-us-fl-shaw-james-d4e65279", "cand-us-fl-simpson-wilton-c0a2258f", "cand-us-fl-smith-kathleen-f3b38554", "cand-us-fl-succe-caneste-02802c49", "cand-us-fl-taddeo-annette-21ae3ccd", "cand-us-fl-taylor-matt-4c7887c4", "cand-us-fl-uthmeier-james-2fc9b0ec", "cand-us-fl-williams-bobby-2519aac6" ], "centre_v2_stack": -5.600237578610313, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -4.472758290724949, "historical_calibration": -0.09951034481640253, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -2.0897613369101506, "structural_calibration": 0 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": -0.09951034481640253, "polls": -2.0897613369101506, "prior": -4.472758290724949 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.446420155440744, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-FL:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.7952, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Byron Donalds", "party": "R", "share_mean": 52.450163055801355, "share_p10": 48.03438262315936, "share_p90": 56.90302408567732, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.7952 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-FL:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.2048, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "David Jolly", "party": "D", "share_mean": 46.77724153155976, "share_p10": 42.33598847718324, "share_p90": 51.192589182543024, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.2048 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 0.7725954126388855, "p10": 0.20233578238367775, "p90": 1.5604525504327138 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "majority-runoff second stage not modelled by CTMM 2.2; published probability is the D-vs-R margin probability under the row's declared distribution", "through_runoff_outright_prob": null, "two_party": { "center": -5.699747923426716, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.446420155440744, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-FL:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-FL:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.2048, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": -5.699747923426716, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.2048, "sigma": 6.446420155440744 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": -0.09951034481640253, "interval50": [ -10.270096526977373, -1.1293993198760601 ], "interval95": [ -20.711459629575106, 9.311963782721673 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.20103665145067806, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 20480 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.2048, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": -5.699747923426716, "candidate_mean_share": { "Byron Donalds": 52.450163055801355, "David Jolly": 46.77724153155976 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 5.672921524241595, "leader_id": "GOV-FL:R", "leader_margin": 5.672921524241595, "leader_party": "R", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-FL:D", "two_party_dr_margin": -5.699747923426716 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid R|Solid R|Safe R|Tilt R", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -11.72203113012005, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -13.22213886698459 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": 0.11091279818329203, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 75.0826197079735, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 75.0826197079735 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": -1.501592522656208, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -11.72203113012005, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -11.72203113012005 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": -1.485406492665728, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": -19.4, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": -19.4 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": -6.255302295637993, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": -10, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": -10 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 0.4280573876534452, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 0.96, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": -19.4, "poll_blend": "19 poll(s) / 14 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": -5.21351063265866, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": -3.01831572152821, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": -10.159981 }, "pres_lean": -10.1, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": -9.2 }, "open": true, "p": "Florida", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.9447069000441735, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": -5.699747923426716, "final_p_d": 0.2048, "final_total_sigma": 6.931595767153864, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": -3.54086303973251, "n_eff": 4.380065532823778 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.446420155440744, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.9447069000441735, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-FL", "rating": "Lean R", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.2048 }, { "band": { "p10": -6.1507944116074125, "p90": 11.587077824734033 }, "base": 2.7181417065633102, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-ga-bottoms-keisha-3d34e154", "cand-us-ga-brown-olu-f390303b", "cand-us-ga-carr-chris-835690a9", "cand-us-ga-clark-david-02f27269", "cand-us-ga-dean-clark-c7327984", "cand-us-ga-dolezal-greg-7a4e6b4c", "cand-us-ga-duffy-amanda-447aafd5", "cand-us-ga-duncan-geoff-89b7cba3", "cand-us-ga-esteves-jason-a90976b0", "cand-us-ga-gooch-steve-a4bb27d8", "cand-us-ga-jackson-derrick-efd36a5e", "cand-us-ga-jackson-rick-c46405d2", "cand-us-ga-jones-burt-b5bbf57e", "cand-us-ga-kennedy-john-036642da", "cand-us-ga-kirkpatrick-gregg-74fc5d7c", "cand-us-ga-mclaurin-josh-f55cc470", "cand-us-ga-parkes-nabilah-8946cd09", "cand-us-ga-porter-brenda-c2bbe9d9", "cand-us-ga-raffensperger-brad-bc3d162b", "cand-us-ga-swan-takosha-6745455e", "cand-us-ga-thurmond-michael-671074ed", "cand-us-ga-tillery-blake-7314770e", "cand-us-ga-williams-tom-d5350366", "cand-us-ga-wright-richard-3abbe545", "cand-us-ga-yasger-ken-2234c6f5" ], "centre_v2_stack": 1.692130481155517, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": 6.667843971650124, "historical_calibration": 1.0260112254077933, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -5.9379955395193935, "structural_calibration": 0 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 1.0260112254077933, "polls": -5.9379955395193935, "prior": 6.667843971650124 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.435664856882293, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-GA:D", "claim_strength": "THROUGH_ROUND", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.65452, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Keisha Lance Bottoms", "party": "D", "share_mean": 50.84952429862315, "share_p10": 46.19246743191033, "share_p90": 55.48496629116494, "through_runoff_win_prob": 0.589975, "win_prob": 0.65452 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-GA:R", "claim_strength": "THROUGH_ROUND", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.34548, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Rick Jackson", "party": "R", "share_mean": 48.16187765272982, "share_p10": 43.54538796386025, "share_p90": 52.810739551355965, "through_runoff_win_prob": 0.410025, "win_prob": 0.34548 } ], "claim_strength": "THROUGH_ROUND", "election_rule_id": "ga-majority-runoff", "election_rule_kind": "majority_runoff", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 0.9885980486470282, "p10": 0.25980872931926263, "p90": 1.9959795028245557 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": true, "through_runoff_note": "ga-majority-runoff: a candidate needs a majority, so the published win probability is a THROUGH-ROUND probability simulated from first preferences under a declared bounded transfer assumption.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 0.8966, "two_party": { "center": 2.7181417065633102, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.435664856882293, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-GA:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-GA:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.65452, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 2.7181417065633102, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.65452, "sigma": 6.435664856882293 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 1.0260112254077933, "interval50": [ -1.8447347630144488, 7.281018176141069 ], "interval95": [ -12.272738843134439, 17.709022256261058 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.656693381547784, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 65452 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.65452, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 2.7181417065633102, "candidate_mean_share": { "Keisha Lance Bottoms": 50.84952429862315, "Rick Jackson": 48.16187765272982 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 2.687646645893331, "leader_id": "GOV-GA:D", "leader_margin": 2.687646645893331, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-GA:R", "two_party_dr_margin": 2.7181417065633102 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Tossup|Tilt R|Tossup|Tossup", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -0.7086245659317414, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -2.2087323027962817 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": 0.7070207821328041, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 59.8227298959986, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 59.8227298959986 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 0.7616632642839454, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -0.7086245659317414, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -0.7086245659317414 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": -0.4025534609284396, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": -7.54, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": -7.54 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 0.8515071187779465, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 0.4280573876534452, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 0.96, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": -7.5, "poll_blend": "8 poll(s) / 8 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 1.6213320177991841, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": 1.8970730578346233, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": 1 }, "pres_lean": -1.5, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": 0.5 }, "open": true, "p": "Georgia", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 7.022737314651411, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 2.7181417065633102, "final_p_d": 0.65452, "final_total_sigma": 6.920467624259687, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": 2.8875936167281084, "n_eff": 4.374511611973296 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.435664856882293, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 7.022737314651411, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-GA", "rating": "Lean D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.65452 }, { "band": { "p10": 36.953013313310244, "p90": 60.64064671716864 }, "base": 48.79683001523944, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-hi-bourgoin-duke-6c7256e6", "cand-us-hi-cordery-gary-34506673", "cand-us-hi-fujiyama-ken-99c8730a", "cand-us-hi-green-josh-47b68ec4", "cand-us-hi-shim-lauren-2f424d72", "cand-us-hi-tadeo-george-43361bbf" ], "centre_v2_stack": 41.6098259639951, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": 36.43029110164926, "historical_calibration": 7.187004051244344, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": 0, "structural_calibration": 4.217252813321053 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 4.217252813321053, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 7.187004051244344, "polls": 0, "prior": 36.43029110164926 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 8.704841016466444, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-HI:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.99857, "incumbent": true, "is_generic": false, "name": "Josh Green", "party": "D", "share_mean": 72.515709405368, "share_p10": 67.71052864773284, "share_p90": 77.26263977131826, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.99857 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-HI:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.0014300000000000423, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Gary Cordery", "party": "R", "share_mean": 24.56679136572273, "share_p10": 20.071346657812718, "share_p90": 29.076890785217834, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.0014300000000000423 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 2.917499228909262, "p10": 0.7905212711489914, "p90": 5.864645907357101 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": 48.79683001523944, "distribution": { "core_scale": 8.704841016466444, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-HI:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-HI:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.99857, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 48.79683001523944, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.99857, "sigma": 8.704841016466444 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 7.187004051244344, "interval50": [ 42.66814436209274, 54.92551566838615 ], "interval95": [ 29.49662300190625, 68.09703702857263 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.9986687148587813, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 99857 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.99857, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 48.79683001523944, "candidate_mean_share": { "Gary Cordery": 24.56679136572273, "Josh Green": 72.515709405368 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 47.94891803964527, "leader_id": "GOV-HI:D", "leader_margin": 47.94891803964527, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-HI:R", "two_party_dr_margin": 48.79683001523944 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid D|Solid D|Safe D|Safe D", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": 25.060759398087537, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": 23.560651661222998 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": 2.074680145543894, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 24.81173902200852, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 24.81173902200852 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 6.057273395675461, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": 25.060759398087537, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": 25.060759398087537 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 2.696268790097157, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": 26.4, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": 26.4 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 11.511721240401856, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 4.000690199991815, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 1 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 4.231727069178616, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 1 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 8.23, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": 26.4, "poll_blend": null, "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 28.609313999999998, "environment_after_polling_D": 2.4, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": null, "poll_weight": 0, "prior_D": 28.609313999999998 }, "pres_lean": 25, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": 33.5 }, "open": false, "p": "Hawaii", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 7.022737314651411, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 48.79683001523944, "final_p_d": 0.99857, "final_total_sigma": 9.241779277836645, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": null, "n_eff": 0 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 8.704841016466444, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 7.022737314651411, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-HI", "rating": "Solid D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.99857 }, { "band": { "p10": -45.12162619242457, "p90": -25.772277864253226 }, "base": -35.4469520283389, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-id-crystal-sean-61e6fa5c", "cand-us-id-durand-maxine-2885037a", "cand-us-id-fitzpatrick-mark-9fdff6e9", "cand-us-id-fowler-daniel-97ae7217", "cand-us-id-giles-ethan-2e31820f", "cand-us-id-james-ron-75826578", "cand-us-id-kirkham-jill-b19a2ed6", "cand-us-id-little-brad-a8839dc9", "cand-us-id-marie-lisa-5546bc81", "cand-us-id-pickens-terri-d14336fe", "cand-us-id-plante-justin-5e3c7651", "cand-us-id-torrez-chanelle-485b971e" ], "centre_v2_stack": -31.370064770114322, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -36.60400458684547, "historical_calibration": -4.076887258224577, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": 7.1227638090769005, "structural_calibration": -2.8511060413705387 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": -2.8511060413705387, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": -4.076887258224577, "polls": 7.1227638090769005, "prior": -36.60400458684547 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.0452215513994485, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-ID:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.99602, "incumbent": true, "is_generic": false, "name": "Brad Little", "party": "R", "share_mean": 64.12394103560094, "share_p10": 58.65476572826266, "share_p90": 69.39624258273061, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.99602 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-ID:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.00398, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Terri Pickens", "party": "D", "share_mean": 30.170851342633416, "share_p10": 25.465146635967752, "share_p90": 34.80945226345135, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.00398 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 5.705207621765641, "p10": 1.613429383763267, "p90": 11.364503422074 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": -35.4469520283389, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.0452215513994485, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-ID:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-ID:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.00398, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": -35.4469520283389, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.00398, "sigma": 7.0452215513994485 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": -4.076887258224577, "interval50": [ -40.432541641026035, -30.461362415651763 ], "interval95": [ -51.61159316415518, -19.282310892522617 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.00426449650125349, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 398 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.00398, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": -35.4469520283389, "candidate_mean_share": { "Brad Little": 64.12394103560094, "Terri Pickens": 30.170851342633416 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 33.953089692967524, "leader_id": "GOV-ID:R", "leader_margin": 33.953089692967524, "leader_party": "R", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-ID:D", "two_party_dr_margin": -35.4469520283389 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid R|Solid R|Safe R|Safe R", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -36.021733443388534, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -37.52184118025308 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": -0.43749770695360396, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 89.12149203555389, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 89.12149203555389 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": -6.495182976336257, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -36.021733443388534, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -36.021733443388534 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": -3.3662473403713054, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": -40, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": -40 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": -9.808707002845962, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": -15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": -15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": -3.144575424684924, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": -6.876556487415252, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": -2, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": -2 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": -10.02, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": -40, "poll_blend": "1 poll(s) / 1 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": -26.47339426165182, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": -24, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": -32.046736 }, "pres_lean": -34.8, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": -37.8 }, "open": false, "p": "Idaho", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.905691692740552, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": -35.4469520283389, "final_p_d": 0.00398, "final_total_sigma": 7.5491883621353795, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": -21, "n_eff": 0.8854232970977591 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.0452215513994485, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.905691692740552, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-ID", "rating": "Solid R", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.00398 }, { "band": { "p10": 20.425907676348064, "p90": 39.58950020254292 }, "base": 30.007703939445495, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-il-bailey-darren-91cee4ed", "cand-us-il-ballots-blank-04ee4925", "cand-us-il-dabrowski-ted-08dbfc5c", "cand-us-il-heidner-rick-37ad541f", "cand-us-il-in-write-36000e61", "cand-us-il-mendrick-james-36620561", "cand-us-il-pritzker-jb-797cf451" ], "centre_v2_stack": 25.332917036858756, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": 22.750762168368777, "historical_calibration": 4.674786902586739, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -0.4257818318373623, "structural_calibration": 2.0456546513025557 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 2.0456546513025557, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 4.674786902586739, "polls": -0.4257818318373623, "prior": 22.750762168368777 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.9747616496790465, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-IL:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.99312, "incumbent": true, "is_generic": false, "name": "JB Pritzker", "party": "D", "share_mean": 63.57881748866478, "share_p10": 58.902458870527774, "share_p90": 68.19919238829115, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.99312 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-IL:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.006879999999999997, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Darren Bailey", "party": "R", "share_mean": 34.094399554086905, "share_p10": 29.60864259229036, "share_p90": 38.6000012278123, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.006879999999999997 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 2.326782957248321, "p10": 0.6246517004964378, "p90": 4.684378605669023 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": 30.007703939445495, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.9747616496790465, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-IL:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-IL:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.99312, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 30.007703939445495, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.99312, "sigma": 6.9747616496790465 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 4.674786902586739, "interval50": [ 25.07089676853298, 34.94451111035801 ], "interval95": [ 13.978054488369484, 46.0373533905215 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.9936226872023732, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 99312 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.99312, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 30.007703939445495, "candidate_mean_share": { "Darren Bailey": 34.094399554086905, "JB Pritzker": 63.57881748866478 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 29.484417934577877, "leader_id": "GOV-IL:D", "leader_margin": 29.484417934577877, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-IL:R", "two_party_dr_margin": 30.007703939445495 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid D|Solid D|Safe D|Safe D", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": 12.635638553407967, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": 11.135530816543426 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": 0.25432206526913237, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 71.41145664243847, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 71.41145664243847 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 3.503910229496521, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": 12.635638553407967, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": 12.635638553407967 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 1.4308098508156375, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": 12.54, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": 12.54 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 11.511721240401856, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 4.000690199991815, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 1 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 7.934488254709906, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 2, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 2 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 11.94, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": 12.5, "poll_blend": "1 poll(s) / 1 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 21.852786859601935, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": 19.673, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": 26.764537999999998 }, "pres_lean": 12.8, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": 20.4 }, "open": false, "p": "Illinois", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 7.022737314651411, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 30.007703939445495, "final_p_d": 0.99312, "final_total_sigma": 7.476715350915753, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": 20.3, "n_eff": 0.05018268011646104 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.9747616496790465, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 7.022737314651411, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-IL", "rating": "Solid D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.99312 }, { "band": { "p10": -5.839414131454127, "p90": 12.009719101915103 }, "base": 3.0851524852304877, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-ia-andrews-eddie-e7f58e1b", "cand-us-ia-feenstra-randy-a202d861", "cand-us-ia-lahn-zach-7984442f", "cand-us-ia-sand-rob-0bff47fc", "cand-us-ia-sherman-brad-8dff2c0f", "cand-us-ia-steen-adam-91ec9c8e" ], "centre_v2_stack": 2.0100697506854126, "decomp": { "environment": 0.962282049024786, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -0.8458503605027206, "historical_calibration": 1.075082734545075, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": 1.893638062163347, "structural_calibration": 0 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0, "environment": 0.962282049024786, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 1.075082734545075, "polls": 1.893638062163347, "prior": -0.8458503605027206 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.477626085386687, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-IA:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.67453, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Rob Sand", "party": "D", "share_mean": 50.33630978213359, "share_p10": 45.751189964953745, "share_p90": 54.86764641746485, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.67453 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-IA:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.32547000000000004, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Zach Lahn", "party": "R", "share_mean": 47.32786562252534, "share_p10": 42.79003219514645, "share_p90": 51.864418104478986, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.32547000000000004 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 2.3358245953410774, "p10": 0.6271682797644745, "p90": 4.702476940715323 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": 3.0851524852304877, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.477626085386687, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-IA:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-IA:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.67453, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 3.0851524852304877, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.67453, "sigma": 6.477626085386687 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 1.075082734545075, "interval50": [ -1.506873345359331, 7.677178315820306 ], "interval95": [ -11.986974148824906, 18.15727911928588 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.6753548723278715, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 67453 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.67453, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 3.0851524852304877, "candidate_mean_share": { "Rob Sand": 50.33630978213359, "Zach Lahn": 47.32786562252534 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 3.0084441596082527, "leader_id": "GOV-IA:D", "leader_margin": 3.0084441596082527, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-IA:R", "two_party_dr_margin": 3.0851524852304877 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Tossup|Lean R|Lean R|Tilt D", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -11.945489972731695, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -13.445597709596235 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": -0.5150434692581317, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 91.10660181434342, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 91.10660181434342 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": -1.547513329786697, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -11.945489972731695, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -11.945489972731695 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": -1.4050598933462664, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": -18.52, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": -18.52 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 3.5165606491839236, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 3.75, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 3.75 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 0.4280573876534452, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 0.96, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": -18.5, "poll_blend": "7 poll(s) / 6 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 2.744222782180819, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.5028463782540079, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": 3.736640498814128, "poll_weight": 0.7904806757274967, "prior_D": -1 }, "pres_lean": -11.7, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": -10 }, "open": true, "p": "Iowa", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.983722107347791, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 3.0851524852304877, "final_p_d": 0.67453, "final_total_sigma": 6.96387633289815, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": 4.963677940855751, "n_eff": 4.013145905391248 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.477626085386687, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.983722107347791, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-IA", "rating": "Lean D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.67453 }, { "band": { "p10": -12.845552918794874, "p90": 6.701170070196531 }, "base": -3.072191424299172, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-r42-ks-charlotte-ohara", "cand-r42-ks-cindy-holscher", "cand-r42-ks-curt-skoog", "cand-r42-ks-ethan-corson", "cand-r42-ks-nick-reinecker", "cand-r42-ks-philip-sarnecki", "cand-r42-ks-scott-schwab", "cand-r42-ks-stacy-rogers", "cand-r42-ks-ty-masterson", "cand-r42-ks-vicki-schmidt" ], "centre_v2_stack": -3.3240009050854633, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -3.6375326980146028, "historical_calibration": 0.2518094807862914, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -0.6487502560956466, "structural_calibration": 0 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 0.2518094807862914, "polls": -0.6487502560956466, "prior": -3.6375326980146028 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.120144068825981, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-KS:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.6549, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Ty Masterson", "party": "R", "share_mean": 49.90168781982759, "share_p10": 45.18855833464382, "share_p90": 54.61399385711598, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.6549 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-KS:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.3451, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Cindy Holscher", "party": "D", "share_mean": 46.86134735149731, "share_p10": 42.144629559519025, "share_p90": 51.53043426962719, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.3451 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 3.236964828675108, "p10": 0.8814575747085136, "p90": 6.501027287757598 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": -3.072191424299172, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.120144068825981, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-KS:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-KS:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.3451, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": -3.072191424299172, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.3451, "sigma": 7.120144068825981 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 0.2518094807862914, "interval50": [ -8.109630365824524, 1.9652475172261799 ], "interval95": [ -19.380186981961195, 13.235804133362853 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.3398439937969434, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 34510 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.3451, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": -3.072191424299172, "candidate_mean_share": { "Cindy Holscher": 46.86134735149731, "Ty Masterson": 49.90168781982759 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 3.0403404683302853, "leader_id": "GOV-KS:R", "leader_margin": 3.0403404683302853, "leader_party": "R", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-KS:D", "two_party_dr_margin": -3.072191424299172 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Lean R|Tossup|Lean R|Tilt R", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -14.911366157685782, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -16.411473894550323 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": -0.22354626685992146, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 83.64450550148413, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 83.64450550148413 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": -2.1570010845357235, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -14.911366157685782, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -14.911366157685782 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 0.4876503383496855, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": 2.21, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": 2.21 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": -1.8135464116280309, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": -3.75, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": -3.75 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 0.4280573876534452, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 0.96, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": 2.2, "poll_blend": "1 poll(s) / 1 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": -1.4219376007763884, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": 0, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": -4.626014 }, "pres_lean": -15.7, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": -6.6 }, "open": true, "p": "Kansas", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 7.061752521955031, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": -3.072191424299172, "final_p_d": 0.3451, "final_total_sigma": 7.62619449521914, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": -1, "n_eff": 0.757858283255199 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.120144068825981, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 7.061752521955031, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-KS", "rating": "Lean R", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.3451 }, { "band": { "p10": 2.2825643924127323, "p90": 21.73305733539815 }, "base": 12.007810863905442, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_MULTIPARTY_FIELD", "binary_withheld_reason": "TWO_PARTY_MARGIN_NOT_APPLICABLE_CANDIDATE_FIELD_PUBLISHED", "candidate_ids": [ "cand-ctm-gov-me-i-bennett-rick", "cand-us-me-bellows-shenna-1e613cad", "cand-us-me-bush-jonathan-81258eed", "cand-us-me-charles-robert-45f09367", "cand-us-me-jackson-troy-0039cef4", "cand-us-me-jones-david-931db16e", "cand-us-me-king-angus-76fce427", "cand-us-me-libby-james-50aeb16e", "cand-us-me-mason-garrett-0bb92316", "cand-us-me-mccarthy-owen-c881de7e", "cand-us-me-midgley-benjamin-ea22f6b0", "cand-us-me-pingree-hannah-db8d0919", "cand-us-me-shah-nirav-171101ec", "cand-us-me-wessels-robert-b9cb8d9b" ], "centre_v2_stack": 9.73971599563485, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": 6.080897363007499, "historical_calibration": 2.268094868270593, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": 2.6965365836025645, "structural_calibration": 0 }, "decomp_candidate": { "final_lead": 11.474149727024546, "leader_id": "GOV-ME:D", "leader_party": "D", "metric": "leader_share_minus_runner_up_share", "note": "stage deltas telescope exactly from the origin lead to the published lead (leader share minus runner-up share from the joint simulation); dr_centre_after is the D-vs-R coordinate after each stage; the candidate_field step is the simulation's own field layer", "origin_lead": 0, "reconciliation_residual": 0, "runner_up_id": "GOV-ME:R", "steps": [ { "delta": 5.241221045489837, "dr_centre_after": 6.080897363007499, "key": "fundamentals", "pair_margin_after": 5.241221045489837 }, { "delta": 0.8294060277563062, "dr_centre_after": 7.043179412032285, "key": "environment", "pair_margin_after": 6.070627073246143 }, { "delta": 0, "dr_centre_after": 7.043179412032285, "key": "money", "pair_margin_after": 6.070627073246143 }, { "delta": 2.3241872783264697, "dr_centre_after": 9.73971599563485, "key": "polls", "pair_margin_after": 8.394814351572613 }, { "delta": 0, "dr_centre_after": 9.73971599563485, "key": "expert_ratings", "pair_margin_after": 8.394814351572613 }, { "delta": 0, "dr_centre_after": 9.73971599563485, "key": "structural_calibration", "pair_margin_after": 8.394814351572613 }, { "delta": 1.954906627607997, "dr_centre_after": 12.007810863905442, "key": "historical_calibration", "pair_margin_after": 10.34972097918061 }, { "delta": 1.124428747843936, "dr_centre_after": 12.007810863905442, "key": "candidate_field", "pair_margin_after": 11.474149727024546 } ], "sum_of_steps": 11.474149727024546 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 2.268094868270593, "polls": 2.6965365836025645, "prior": 6.080897363007499 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.083608463021483, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-ME:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "claim_strength_ctmm21": "WIN_PROBABILITY_FROM_JOINT_SIMULATION; share distribution re-centred on the CTMM 2.2 two-party centre, dispersion carried", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.92056, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Hannah Pingree", "party": "D", "share_mean": 48.83286100006392, "share_p10": 42.2509965625843, "share_p90": 54.84073153013182, "share_source": "ctmm21_joint_simulation", "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.92056 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-ME:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "claim_strength_ctmm21": "WIN_PROBABILITY_FROM_JOINT_SIMULATION; share distribution re-centred on the CTMM 2.2 two-party centre, dispersion carried", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.07542, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Bobby Charles", "party": "R", "share_mean": 37.358711273039376, "share_p10": 30.801221229669256, "share_p90": 43.37696695021417, "share_source": "ctmm21_joint_simulation", "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.07542 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-ME:I", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "claim_strength_ctmm21": "WIN_PROBABILITY_FROM_JOINT_SIMULATION; share distribution re-centred on the CTMM 2.2 two-party centre, dispersion carried", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.00402, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Rick Bennett", "party": "I", "share_mean": 9.272528097795522, "share_p10": 3.2216305264594527, "share_p90": 17.36740797347772, "share_source": "ctmm21_joint_simulation", "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.00402 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "me-plurality-state", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "THIRD_PRINCIPAL", "official_ballot_candidates": [ { "affiliation": "Independent", "ballot_status": "OFFICIAL_GENERAL_BALLOT", "model_names": [ "Rick Bennett" ], "name": "Richard A. Bennett", "party": "I", "source_sha256": "e749364a8a4cceb32088845f249780ef24bab03dd39ce53dbb69870e90495717", "source_url": "https://www.maine.gov/sos/sites/maine.gov.sos/files/inline-files/2026%20General%20Candidate%20List%20-%20posting.xlsx", "verified_as_of": "2026-08-31" } ], "other_share": { "mean": 4.535899629101174, "p10": 1.260150161835243, "p90": 9.073008190713628 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "me-plurality-state: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": 12.007810863905442, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.083608463021483, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-ME:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-ME:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.92056, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 12.007810863905442, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.92056, "sigma": 7.083608463021483 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 2.268094868270593, "interval50": [ 6.995653068525153, 17.01996865928573 ], "interval95": [ -4.230302490243266, 28.24592421805415 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.939509756493133, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 92056 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.92056, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 12.007810863905442, "candidate_mean_share": { "Bobby Charles": 37.358711273039376, "Hannah Pingree": 48.83286100006392, "Rick Bennett": 9.272528097795522 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 11.474149727024546, "leader_id": "GOV-ME:D", "leader_margin": 11.474149727024546, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "field_lead", "runner_up_id": "GOV-ME:R", "two_party_dr_margin": 12.007810863905442 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Likely D|Likely D|Lean D|Tilt D", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": 8.58871937681346, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": 7.08861163994892 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": -0.6753490642786569, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 95.2102974233985, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 95.2102974233985 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 2.6722680675255734, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": 8.58871937681346, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": 8.58871937681346 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 1.4947219184561185, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": 13.24, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": 13.24 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 9.73501888679787, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 12.5, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 12.5 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 0.4280573876534452, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 0.96, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": 13.2, "poll_blend": "2 poll(s) / 2 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 12.268421616163444, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": 12.298786456637366, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": 12.200000000000001 }, "pres_lean": 7.6, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": 13 }, "open": true, "p": "Maine", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 7.022737314651411, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 12.007810863905442, "final_p_d": 0.92056, "final_total_sigma": 7.588650143281537, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": 13.070178023975668, "n_eff": 0.9731682435338072 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.083608463021483, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 7.022737314651411, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-ME", "rating": "Likely D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.92056 }, { "band": { "p10": 24.084591695977743, "p90": 43.16688496135368 }, "base": 33.62573832866571, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-ctm-gov-md-d-moore-wes", "cand-ctm-gov-md-r-cox-dan", "cand-us-md-abend-michael-12ece84b", "cand-us-md-brunner-and-9f23dfb4", "cand-us-md-duncan-douglas-0d64774e", "cand-us-md-hawkins-shannon-4f834b12", "cand-us-md-keys-ed-a66e35c3", "cand-us-md-krop-dan-0797e260", "cand-us-md-lytes-eric-95759a17", "cand-us-md-miller-wes-5aa516b2", "cand-us-md-shifflett-l-689587ba", "cand-us-md-swift-nancy-774d3eaa", "cand-us-md-thiam-john-8f2c0e54" ], "centre_v2_stack": 28.467198855556724, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": 29.686550385643425, "historical_calibration": 5.158539473108988, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -4.645451203936926, "structural_calibration": 2.463817624825438 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 2.463817624825438, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 5.158539473108988, "polls": -4.645451203936926, "prior": 29.686550385643425 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.943939596413483, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-MD:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.99524, "incumbent": true, "is_generic": false, "name": "Wes Moore", "party": "D", "share_mean": 65.45780389860639, "share_p10": 60.86797960330018, "share_p90": 69.99713152586456, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.99524 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-MD:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.0047599999999999865, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Dan Cox", "party": "R", "share_mean": 32.39524169014374, "share_p10": 27.99664051713045, "share_p90": 36.814055030026736, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.0047599999999999865 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 2.1469544112498795, "p10": 0.5747432266766932, "p90": 4.324220128461099 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": 33.62573832866571, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.943939596413483, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-MD:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-MD:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.99524, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 33.62573832866571, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.99524, "sigma": 6.943939596413483 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 5.158539473108988, "interval50": [ 28.710277136158147, 38.541199521173276 ], "interval95": [ 17.65519407510039, 49.596282582231034 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.9950994202543737, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 99524 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.99524, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 33.62573832866571, "candidate_mean_share": { "Dan Cox": 32.39524169014374, "Wes Moore": 65.45780389860639 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 33.062562208462644, "leader_id": "GOV-MD:D", "leader_margin": 33.062562208462644, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-MD:R", "two_party_dr_margin": 33.62573832866571 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid D|Solid D|Safe D|Safe D", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": 31.009621791226383, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": 29.509514054361844 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": 0.7709362769051149, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 58.186544114621896, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 58.186544114621896 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 7.279765016093945, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": 31.009621791226383, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": 31.009621791226383 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 3.2449995422675704, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": 32.41, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": 32.41 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 11.511721240401856, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 4.000690199991815, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 1 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 4.231727069178616, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 1 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 8.23, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": 32.4, "poll_blend": "1 poll(s) / 1 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 25.676502919371025, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": 24.141, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": 29.136477999999997 }, "pres_lean": 30.2, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": 39.1 }, "open": false, "p": "Maryland", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.905691692740556, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 33.62573832866571, "final_p_d": 0.99524, "final_total_sigma": 7.444996275770941, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": 25, "n_eff": 0.753068018597194 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.943939596413483, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.905691692740556, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-MD", "rating": "Solid D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.99524 }, { "band": { "p10": 19.308874301309693, "p90": 36.181734184736065 }, "base": 27.74530424302288, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-ma-healey-maura-8c1bf7ba", "cand-us-ma-minogue-michael-0b5af5bc", "cand-us-ma-shortsleeve-brian-cbfa820d" ], "centre_v2_stack": 23.373013544439633, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": 27.306304255642946, "historical_calibration": 4.372290698583246, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -6.679745158301646, "structural_calibration": 1.7841723980735473 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 1.7841723980735473, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 4.372290698583246, "polls": -6.679745158301646, "prior": 27.306304255642946 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.1100690396529505, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-MA:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.99263, "incumbent": true, "is_generic": false, "name": "Maura Healey", "party": "D", "share_mean": 61.9009513815567, "share_p10": 57.09641695292129, "share_p90": 66.64497552898968, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.99263 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-MA:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.007369999999999988, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Michael Minogue", "party": "R", "share_mean": 34.888203529906946, "share_p10": 30.367866138440597, "share_p90": 39.432109815171685, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.007369999999999988 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 3.2108450885363475, "p10": 0.8739900343692064, "p90": 6.449049387453817 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": 27.74530424302288, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.1100690396529505, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-MA:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-MA:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.99263, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 27.74530424302288, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.99263, "sigma": 6.1100690396529505 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 4.372290698583246, "interval50": [ 23.40886481312527, 32.08174367292049 ], "interval95": [ 13.387242601395606, 42.10336588465015 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.9925617168887036, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 99263 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.99263, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 27.74530424302288, "candidate_mean_share": { "Maura Healey": 61.9009513815567, "Michael Minogue": 34.888203529906946 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 27.012747851649756, "leader_id": "GOV-MA:D", "leader_margin": 27.012747851649756, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-MA:R", "two_party_dr_margin": 27.74530424302288 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid D|Solid D|Safe D|Safe D", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": 27.410746577703055, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": 25.910638840838516 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": -0.08916386514797849, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 80.20442300299761, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 80.20442300299761 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 6.540195918557187, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": 27.410746577703055, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": 27.410746577703055 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 2.940047676668705, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": 29.07, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": 29.07 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 11.511721240401856, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 4.000690199991815, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 1 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 4.231727069178616, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 1 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 8.23, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": 29.1, "poll_blend": "8 poll(s) / 4 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 22.447739569344613, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": 20.327613512050288, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": 27.225056 }, "pres_lean": 27.8, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": 36.2 }, "open": false, "p": "Massachusetts", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.983722107347791, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 27.74530424302288, "final_p_d": 0.99263, "final_total_sigma": 6.582981261567959, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": 22.46350804985423, "n_eff": 2.4068674457798687 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.1100690396529505, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.983722107347791, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-MA", "rating": "Solid D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.99263 }, { "band": { "p10": -2.2305572459128316, "p90": 15.14168680756605 }, "base": 6.455564780826609, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-mi-benson-jocelyn-fb61971d", "cand-us-mi-cox-mike-adb2dd9a", "cand-us-mi-james-john-25607916", "cand-us-mi-johnson-perry-33d658d8", "cand-us-mi-nesbitt-aric-ceca38e4", "cand-us-mi-swanson-christopher-80097347" ], "centre_v2_stack": 4.929838012445849, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": 2.86715493296943, "historical_calibration": 1.5257267683807596, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": 1.100401030451633, "structural_calibration": 0 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 1.5257267683807596, "polls": 1.100401030451633, "prior": 2.86715493296943 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.297902192070113, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-MI:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.83063, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Jocelyn Benson", "party": "D", "share_mean": 51.84986756906465, "share_p10": 47.36445739189189, "share_p90": 56.28386230783943, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.83063 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-MI:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.16937000000000002, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "John James", "party": "R", "share_mean": 45.57721669065583, "share_p10": 41.17926260203261, "share_p90": 49.991914697927236, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.16937000000000002 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 2.572915740279515, "p10": 0.6934052434846554, "p90": 5.176697080945949 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": 6.455564780826609, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.297902192070113, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-MI:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-MI:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.83063, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 6.455564780826609, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.83063, "sigma": 6.297902192070113 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 1.5257267683807596, "interval50": [ 1.9884409265035456, 10.922688635149672 ], "interval95": [ -8.268088525518277, 21.179218087171495 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.8332181974644911, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 83063 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.83063, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 6.455564780826609, "candidate_mean_share": { "Jocelyn Benson": 51.84986756906465, "John James": 45.57721669065583 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 6.272650878408818, "leader_id": "GOV-MI:D", "leader_margin": 6.272650878408818, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-MI:R", "two_party_dr_margin": 6.455564780826609 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Tossup|Tossup|Tossup|Tossup", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": 0.05763407903060802, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -1.4424736578339323 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": -0.0483006172612458, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 79.15835638939599, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 79.15835638939599 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 0.9191294671700796, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": 0.05763407903060802, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": 0.05763407903060802 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 1.2472909137336856, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": 10.53, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": 10.53 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 3.5165606491839236, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 3.75, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 3.75 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 0.4280573876534452, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 0.96, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": 10.5, "poll_blend": "28 poll(s) / 12 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 6.632140758095268, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.15719661968911147, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": 6.768005642050174, "poll_weight": 0.9345014084628702, "prior_D": 4.693688 }, "pres_lean": -0.2, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": 6.8 }, "open": true, "p": "Michigan", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.749630863526079, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 6.455564780826609, "final_p_d": 0.83063, "final_total_sigma": 6.7778170307554015, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": 7.705372311600637, "n_eff": 7.346747024677158 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.297902192070113, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.749630863526079, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-MI", "rating": "Lean D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.83063 }, { "band": { "p10": 3.2421914490392467, "p90": 21.701772335138294 }, "base": 12.47198189208877, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-mn-blue-loner-5b33da46", "cand-us-mn-demuth-lisa-e17ddf0d", "cand-us-mn-estrada-raul-80e1dd48", "cand-us-mn-evenstad-thomas-7f3b8be4", "cand-us-mn-gates-bill-14a9c389", "cand-us-mn-klobuchar-amy-73c2667c", "cand-us-mn-krhin-john-9ea1a71c", "cand-us-mn-layne-kobey-438f5d71", "cand-us-mn-lindell-mike-f81a6038", "cand-us-mn-nova-ross-be89a72a", "cand-us-mn-qualls-kendall-19c8fe3e", "cand-us-mn-savior-ole-b41bde47", "cand-us-mn-vang-po-209ce303", "cand-us-mn-wazwaz-mohammad-ec766f20" ], "centre_v2_stack": 10.141824615369362, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": 9.539073316035733, "historical_calibration": 2.330157276719408, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -0.37845240585104456, "structural_calibration": 0.018921656159887945 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0.018921656159887945, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 2.330157276719408, "polls": -0.37845240585104456, "prior": 9.539073316035733 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.708181402977921, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-MN:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.95199, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Amy Klobuchar", "party": "D", "share_mean": 54.615559071193246, "share_p10": 49.92066777095166, "share_p90": 59.261004449576, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.95199 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-MN:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.04801, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Lisa Demuth", "party": "R", "share_mean": 42.5181769696273, "share_p10": 37.97868601966184, "share_p90": 47.07699746451386, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.04801 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "official_ballot_candidates": [ { "affiliation": "Green", "ballot_status": "OFFICIAL_GENERAL_BALLOT", "name": "Steven Young", "party": "O", "source_sha256": "0e1bbd0c10be93dd03830ab67848f841085b2d60f311b7afdcacd754e296826e", "source_url": "https://pollfinder.sos.mn.gov/results?houseNumber=8700&id=165162", "verified_as_of": "2026-08-31" } ], "other_share": { "mean": 2.866263959179452, "p10": 0.7760176480660654, "p90": 5.762455048250215 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": 12.47198189208877, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.708181402977921, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-MN:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-MN:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.95199, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 12.47198189208877, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.95199, "sigma": 6.708181402977921 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 2.330157276719408, "interval50": [ 7.719928222156405, 17.224035562021136 ], "interval95": [ -3.0453459177742204, 27.98930970195176 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.9526378534903946, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 95199 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.95199, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 12.47198189208877, "candidate_mean_share": { "Amy Klobuchar": 54.615559071193246, "Lisa Demuth": 42.5181769696273 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 12.097382101565948, "leader_id": "GOV-MN:D", "leader_margin": 12.097382101565948, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-MN:R", "two_party_dr_margin": 12.47198189208877 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid D|Likely D|Safe D|Likely D", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": 5.8435120890534975, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": 4.343404352188957 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": -0.2795432268196591, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 85.0779830958113, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 85.0779830958113 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 2.1081277859367837, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": 5.8435120890534975, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": 5.8435120890534975 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 0.9852514364077145, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": 7.66, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": 7.66 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 9.73501888679787, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 12.5, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 12.5 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 0.4280573876534452, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 0.96, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": 7.7, "poll_blend": "5 poll(s) / 4 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 12.531478633439429, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.6867332114706162, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": 12.919597094299478, "poll_weight": 0.7138611618872432, "prior_D": 11.563198 }, "pres_lean": 5.1, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": 9.6 }, "open": true, "p": "Minnesota", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.983722107347791, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 12.47198189208877, "final_p_d": 0.95199, "final_total_sigma": 7.202043750090764, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": 12.565966955648944, "n_eff": 2.6184711086755725 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.708181402977921, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.983722107347791, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-MN", "rating": "Likely D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.95199 }, { "band": { "p10": -24.107539896238002, "p90": -6.567057785059667 }, "base": -15.337298840648835, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-ne-focken-sheila-fc1170ac", "cand-us-ne-holguin-sal-714d0b12", "cand-us-ne-marvin-larry-b4149e7b", "cand-us-ne-pillen-jim-7897cac1", "cand-us-ne-rogge-gary-c8cfc120", "cand-us-ne-todd-jacy-c5a6e79a", "cand-us-ne-walz-john-d9533646", "cand-us-ne-walz-lynne-10ef8e42" ], "centre_v2_stack": -13.949191006644357, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -19.781687261593643, "historical_calibration": -1.3881078340044777, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": 5.397099007570784, "structural_calibration": -0.5268848016462844 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": -0.5268848016462844, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": -1.3881078340044777, "polls": 5.397099007570784, "prior": -19.781687261593643 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.3612664918716515, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-NE:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.9762, "incumbent": true, "is_generic": false, "name": "Jim Pillen", "party": "R", "share_mean": 55.77510072387955, "share_p10": 51.03263803933258, "share_p90": 60.49897509657322, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.9762 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-NE:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.0238, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Lynne Walz", "party": "D", "share_mean": 40.79505070064698, "share_p10": 36.18629574728786, "share_p90": 45.361580072107685, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.0238 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "official_ballot_candidates": [ { "affiliation": "Legal Marijuana NOW", "ballot_status": "OFFICIAL_GENERAL_BALLOT", "name": "Rick Beard", "party": "O", "source_sha256": "ff253dc024fbf588a7c1ee0b1246d6fb6c6a5fcbb523280fb33a183f8404a6e4", "source_url": "https://sos.nebraska.gov/sites/default/files/doc/elections/2026/Statewide_Candidate_Filing_List.xlsx", "verified_as_of": "2026-08-31" } ], "other_share": { "mean": 3.429848575473475, "p10": 0.9367818291133025, "p90": 6.884562638714262 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": -15.337298840648835, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.3612664918716515, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-NE:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-NE:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.0238, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": -15.337298840648835, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.0238, "sigma": 6.3612664918716515 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": -1.3881078340044777, "interval50": [ -19.84847437004192, -10.82612331125575 ], "interval95": [ -30.1839578472027, -0.4906398340949707 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.022876545158337258, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 2380 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.0238, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": -15.337298840648835, "candidate_mean_share": { "Jim Pillen": 55.77510072387955, "Lynne Walz": 40.79505070064698 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 14.980050023232565, "leader_id": "GOV-NE:R", "leader_margin": 14.980050023232565, "leader_party": "R", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-NE:D", "two_party_dr_margin": -15.337298840648835 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid R|Solid R|Safe R|Lean R", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -19.340575567033255, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -20.840683303897794 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": -0.3114070440160448, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 85.89367144842183, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 85.89367144842183 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": -3.0672039149543653, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -19.340575567033255, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -19.340575567033255 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": -1.8360098351506513, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": -23.24, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": -23.24 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": -9.808707002845962, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": -15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": -15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": -3.144575424684924, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": -3.173795301883963, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": -1 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": -6.32, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": -23.2, "poll_blend": "4 poll(s) / 2 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": -10.809953407539114, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": -5.301515535858203, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": -23.222211 }, "pres_lean": -20.1, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": -22 }, "open": false, "p": "Nebraska", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.9447069000441735, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": -15.337298840648835, "final_p_d": 0.0238, "final_total_sigma": 6.8434554577304265, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": -5.2027028949528304, "n_eff": 0.4398087368418118 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.3612664918716515, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.9447069000441735, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-NE", "rating": "Solid R", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.0238 }, { "band": { "p10": -14.191784597872129, "p90": 1.902728756440184 }, "base": -6.144527920715972, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-nv-arterburn-sunshine-ba06435e", "cand-us-nv-bayfield-miqehl-576a47c6", "cand-us-nv-beaudry-donald-4c5b38c2", "cand-us-nv-bouari-emile-24c90e87", "cand-us-nv-cooper-james-71da524f", "cand-us-nv-ford-aaron-b4725169", "cand-us-nv-hansen-irina-578d6736", "cand-us-nv-hawkins-michael-07655105", "cand-us-nv-hill-alexis-1ed46854", "cand-us-nv-lombardo-joseph-db75d821", "cand-us-nv-winterhawk-matthew-ba178138", "cand-us-nv-zelaya-jose-82613462", "cand-us-nv-zilberberg-barak-302ce7a0" ], "centre_v2_stack": -5.985547862829227, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -4.281864362912835, "historical_calibration": -0.15898005788674485, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -2.6659655489411787, "structural_calibration": 0 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": -0.15898005788674485, "polls": -2.6659655489411787, "prior": -4.281864362912835 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 5.818067603538781, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-NV:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.831, "incumbent": true, "is_generic": false, "name": "Joe Lombardo", "party": "R", "share_mean": 51.44325386434636, "share_p10": 46.776971720523, "share_p90": 56.111116680735556, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.831 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-NV:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.169, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Aaron Ford", "party": "D", "share_mean": 45.42024193236693, "share_p10": 40.77896998516688, "share_p90": 50.011490695341365, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.169 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 3.1365042032867096, "p10": 0.8527679538024819, "p90": 6.301059763786513 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": -6.144527920715972, "distribution": { "core_scale": 5.818067603538781, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-NV:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-NV:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.169, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": -6.144527920715972, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.169, "sigma": 5.818067603538781 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": -0.15898005788674485, "interval50": [ -10.277508794458981, -2.0115470469729635 ], "interval95": [ -19.931280605126403, 7.6422247636944585 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.16027040384310365, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 16900 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.169, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": -6.144527920715972, "candidate_mean_share": { "Aaron Ford": 45.42024193236693, "Joe Lombardo": 51.44325386434636 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 6.023011931979433, "leader_id": "GOV-NV:R", "leader_margin": 6.023011931979433, "leader_party": "R", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-NV:D", "two_party_dr_margin": -6.144527920715972 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Tossup|Tilt R|Lean R|Tilt R", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -1.6589101716524763, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -3.1590179085170167 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": 0.4698162053286082, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 65.89497821742813, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 65.89497821742813 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 0.5663795086304654, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -1.6589101716524763, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -1.6589101716524763 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 0.1480033503174163, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": -1.51, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": -1.51 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": -0.03684405802404583, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": -1.25, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": -1.25 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": -3.144575424684924, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": -3.173795301883963, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": -1 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": -6.32, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": -1.5, "poll_blend": "10 poll(s) / 9 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": -4.278904176089526, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": -3.0269295888469836, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": -7.1 }, "pres_lean": -1.5, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": -1.7 }, "open": false, "p": "Nevada", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.983722107347791, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": -6.144527920715972, "final_p_d": 0.169, "final_total_sigma": 6.279307749693586, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": -4.055898989653742, "n_eff": 2.6447206645607158 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 5.818067603538781, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.983722107347791, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-NV", "rating": "Lean R", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.169 }, { "band": { "p10": -20.824568581147766, "p90": -4.575899068075364 }, "base": -12.700233824611564, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-nh-ayotte-kelly-1db720c3", "cand-us-nh-fife-shaun-c8e7c2ee", "cand-us-nh-mcclory-bob-357e0833", "cand-us-nh-warmington-cinde-ec8ef835" ], "centre_v2_stack": -11.664717161089929, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -12.19200670825338, "historical_calibration": -1.0355166635216353, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -0.21289279340400213, "structural_calibration": -0.22209970845733196 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": -0.22209970845733196, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": -1.0355166635216353, "polls": -0.21289279340400213, "prior": -12.19200670825338 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 5.875826531849792, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-NH:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.96485, "incumbent": true, "is_generic": false, "name": "Kelly Ayotte", "party": "R", "share_mean": 55.20655067450303, "share_p10": 50.63228630654506, "share_p90": 59.78208729954737, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.96485 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-NH:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.03515, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Cinde Warmington", "party": "D", "share_mean": 42.74997203242241, "share_p10": 38.20499628404528, "share_p90": 47.249193992830364, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.03515 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 2.0434772930745644, "p10": 0.5461487589992722, "p90": 4.116806718219125 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": -12.700233824611564, "distribution": { "core_scale": 5.875826531849792, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-NH:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-NH:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.03515, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": -12.700233824611564, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.03515, "sigma": 5.875826531849792 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": -1.0355166635216353, "interval50": [ -16.87348851859563, -8.5269791306275 ], "interval95": [ -26.600288755085536, 1.1998211058624069 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.031943575871710816, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 3515 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.03515, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": -12.700233824611564, "candidate_mean_share": { "Cinde Warmington": 42.74997203242241, "Kelly Ayotte": 55.20655067450303 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 12.456578642080615, "leader_id": "GOV-NH:R", "leader_margin": 12.456578642080615, "leader_party": "R", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-NH:D", "two_party_dr_margin": -12.700233824611564 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Likely R|Solid R|Likely R|Tilt R", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": 4.321322683591305, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": 2.821214946726764 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": -0.6233890208235285, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 93.88016167769467, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 93.88016167769467 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 1.7953177611136235, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": 4.321322683591305, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": 4.321322683591305 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": -1.1302380024921992, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": -15.51, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": -15.51 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": -8.032004649241978, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": -12.5, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": -12.5 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": -3.144575424684924, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": -3.173795301883963, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": -1 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": -6.32, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": -15.5, "poll_blend": "6 poll(s) / 2 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": -12.534662402909897, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": -10.92418534349999, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": -16.163578 }, "pres_lean": 4.2, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": -6.6 }, "open": false, "p": "New Hampshire", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 7.022737314651411, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": -12.700233824611564, "final_p_d": 0.03515, "final_total_sigma": 6.33945209460513, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": -8.962448241257984, "n_eff": 2.410215415589483 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 5.875826531849792, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 7.022737314651411, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-NH", "rating": "Solid R", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.03515 }, { "band": { "p10": 0.39244569972398935, "p90": 19.112852362268054 }, "base": 9.752649030996022, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-nm-bregman-sam-097978a6", "cand-us-nm-haaland-deb-8d49d4dc", "cand-us-nm-hull-greggory-d1818312", "cand-us-nm-rodriguez-duke-dc9773f6", "cand-us-nm-turner-doug-dba94549" ], "centre_v2_stack": 7.786082621621235, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": 9.689217846163384, "historical_calibration": 1.9665664093747868, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -2.865417273566935, "structural_calibration": 0 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 1.9665664093747868, "polls": -2.865417273566935, "prior": 9.689217846163384 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.806859909938069, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-NM:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.90591, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Deb Haaland", "party": "D", "share_mean": 53.74923179628758, "share_p10": 49.21346997273916, "share_p90": 58.22017174330017, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.90591 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-NM:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.09409000000000001, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Gregg Hull", "party": "R", "share_mean": 44.20829554414131, "share_p10": 39.77181437181578, "share_p90": 48.65800178048969, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.09409000000000001 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 2.042472659571105, "p10": 0.5458715860226144, "p90": 4.114792394765158 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": 9.752649030996022, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.806859909938069, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-NM:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-NM:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.90591, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 9.752649030996022, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.90591, "sigma": 6.806859909938069 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 1.9665664093747868, "interval50": [ 4.932171386217046, 14.573126675774997 ], "interval95": [ -5.954620244331441, 25.459918306323484 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.9084321826043211, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 90591 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.90591, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 9.752649030996022, "candidate_mean_share": { "Deb Haaland": 53.74923179628758, "Gregg Hull": 44.20829554414131 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 9.540936252146274, "leader_id": "GOV-NM:D", "leader_margin": 9.540936252146274, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-NM:R", "two_party_dr_margin": 9.752649030996022 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Likely D|Likely D|Likely D|Likely D", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": 7.641919965511848, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": 6.141812228647307 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": 0.3718890034057307, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 68.4018366242511, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 68.4018366242511 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 2.4777007250588303, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": 7.641919965511848, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": 7.641919965511848 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 0.8683836555794068, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": 6.38, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": 6.38 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 9.73501888679787, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 12.5, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 12.5 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 0.4280573876534452, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 0.96, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": 6.4, "poll_blend": "3 poll(s) / 3 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 9.706828355677562, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": 8.511625261477064, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": 12.4 }, "pres_lean": 7.4, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": 10.9 }, "open": true, "p": "New Mexico", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.905691692740556, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 9.752649030996022, "final_p_d": 0.90591, "final_total_sigma": 7.303805467472062, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": 9.653398224660295, "n_eff": 2.0235551257201014 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.806859909938069, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.905691692740556, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-NM", "rating": "Likely D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.90591 }, { "band": { "p10": 4.458727619566547, "p90": 20.013338524642606 }, "base": 12.236033072104577, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-ny-blakeman-bruce-7e88fd4f", "cand-us-ny-hochul-kathy-b551f6d9" ], "centre_v2_stack": 9.937423546428976, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": 19.574772122669717, "historical_calibration": 2.2986095256756016, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -10.599630625265528, "structural_calibration": 0 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 2.2986095256756016, "polls": -10.599630625265528, "prior": 19.574772122669717 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 5.616066697734873, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-NY:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.96453, "incumbent": true, "is_generic": false, "name": "Kathy Hochul", "party": "D", "share_mean": 52.61266657123521, "share_p10": 47.12276621197597, "share_p90": 57.88075564888696, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.96453 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-NY:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.03547, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Bruce Blakeman", "party": "R", "share_mean": 41.216019751158285, "share_p10": 36.21815618073292, "share_p90": 46.1632692672667, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.03547 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 6.171313677606502, "p10": 1.75755234160121, "p90": 12.271023767194354 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": 12.236033072104577, "distribution": { "core_scale": 5.616066697734873, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-NY:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-NY:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.96453, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 12.236033072104577, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.96453, "sigma": 5.616066697734873 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 2.2986095256756016, "interval50": [ 8.244015077183962, 16.22805106702519 ], "interval95": [ -1.153280459539543, 25.625346603748696 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.968288264021904, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 96453 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.96453, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 12.236033072104577, "candidate_mean_share": { "Bruce Blakeman": 41.216019751158285, "Kathy Hochul": 52.61266657123521 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 11.396646820076924, "leader_id": "GOV-NY:D", "leader_margin": 11.396646820076924, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-NY:R", "two_party_dr_margin": 12.236033072104577 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid D|Likely D|Safe D|Likely D", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": 14.189593854003476, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": 12.689486117138935 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": 0.49903258607698053, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 65.14706213019346, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 65.14706213019346 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 3.823248147898185, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": 14.189593854003476, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": 14.189593854003476 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 0.9496432844365895, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": 7.27, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": 7.27 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 9.73501888679787, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 12.5, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 12.5 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 4.000690199991815, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 1 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 4.231727069178616, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 1 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 8.23, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": 7.3, "poll_blend": "20 poll(s) / 12 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 13.411481640707397, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": 9.900298442679178, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": 21.323290999999998 }, "pres_lean": 15.7, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": 19 }, "open": false, "p": "New York", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 7.061752521955031, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 12.236033072104577, "final_p_d": 0.96453, "final_total_sigma": 6.068663689886745, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": 10.084970246253636, "n_eff": 4.610952663836776 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 5.616066697734873, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 7.061752521955031, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-NY", "rating": "Likely D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.96453 }, { "band": { "p10": -11.229096826553707, "p90": 6.59218478551258 }, "base": -2.3184560205205633, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-oh-acton-amy-cb14450f", "cand-us-oh-putsch-casey-91487250", "cand-us-oh-ramaswamy-vivek-78cdac70" ], "centre_v2_stack": -2.6710443773059067, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -6.175015177306676, "historical_calibration": 0.3525883567853434, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": 2.5416887509759833, "structural_calibration": 0 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 0.3525883567853434, "polls": 2.5416887509759833, "prior": -6.175015177306676 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.467120316830084, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-OH:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.6278699999999999, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Vivek Ramaswamy", "party": "R", "share_mean": 50.01541103141266, "share_p10": 45.449755884558606, "share_p90": 54.58191901306033, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.6278699999999999 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-OH:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.37213, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Amy Acton", "party": "D", "share_mean": 47.726120673970115, "share_p10": 43.13753306967942, "share_p90": 52.25973783041709, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.37213 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 2.258468294617223, "p10": 0.6056598748565755, "p90": 4.547603847085244 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": -2.3184560205205633, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.467120316830084, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-OH:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-OH:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.37213, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": -2.3184560205205633, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.37213, "sigma": 6.467120316830084 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 0.3525883567853434, "interval50": [ -6.903184470303024, 2.266272429261897 ], "interval95": [ -17.370247640525015, 12.733335599483887 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.365916116354143, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 37213 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.37213, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": -2.3184560205205633, "candidate_mean_share": { "Amy Acton": 47.726120673970115, "Vivek Ramaswamy": 50.01541103141266 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 2.289290357442546, "leader_id": "GOV-OH:R", "leader_margin": 2.289290357442546, "leader_party": "R", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-OH:D", "two_party_dr_margin": -2.3184560205205633 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Lean R|Likely R|Lean R|Tilt R", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -9.813121690409531, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -11.313229427274072 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": -0.18293020215877095, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 82.60476658064442, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 82.60476658064442 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": -1.1093115048812205, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -9.813121690409531, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -9.813121690409531 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": -1.999442122402738, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": -25.03, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": -25.03 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": -0.03684405802404583, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": -1.25, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": -1.25 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 0.4280573876534452, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 0.96, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": -25, "poll_blend": "19 poll(s) / 14 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": -1.9384193268024734, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": -0.8903730451033007, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": -4.300000000000001 }, "pres_lean": -10.3, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": -10.9 }, "open": true, "p": "Ohio", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 7.022737314651411, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": -2.3184560205205633, "final_p_d": 0.37213, "final_total_sigma": 6.953009965109388, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": 0.4280517686518844, "n_eff": 4.078547725438616 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.467120316830084, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 7.022737314651411, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-OH", "rating": "Tilt R", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.37213 }, { "band": { "p10": -19.28355779028839, "p90": 1.3094963629782281 }, "base": -8.987030713655082, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-ok-arya-arya-88ba3d41", "cand-us-ok-domenico-jennifer-9d7b7311", "cand-us-ok-drummond-gentner-d606f9b6", "cand-us-ok-haynes-leisa-f0f9447b", "cand-us-ok-johnson-connie-1cb5e4f0", "cand-us-ok-keating-chip-cd4ada84", "cand-us-ok-mazzei-mike-de08ef2c", "cand-us-ok-mccall-charles-d97dc366", "cand-us-ok-merrick-jake-83792f25", "cand-us-ok-munson-cyndi-0cbf614f", "cand-us-ok-sturgell-kenneth-7eca7d1d", "cand-us-ok-taylor-calup-7ec66520" ], "centre_v2_stack": -8.447991240938581, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -9.410273289963367, "historical_calibration": -0.5390394727165013, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": 0, "structural_calibration": 0 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": -0.5390394727165013, "polls": 0, "prior": -9.410273289963367 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.518272652910626, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-OK:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.86809, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Mike Mazzei", "party": "R", "share_mean": 52.69052030313543, "share_p10": 47.96711445370811, "share_p90": 57.39758008846957, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.86809 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-OK:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.13191, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Cyndi Munson", "party": "D", "share_mean": 44.22923354586792, "share_p10": 39.68398524378657, "share_p90": 48.731229924699825, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.13191 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 3.080246150996654, "p10": 0.8367391656509078, "p90": 6.189016356756763 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": -8.987030713655082, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.518272652910626, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-OK:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-OK:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.13191, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": -8.987030713655082, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.13191, "sigma": 7.518272652910626 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": -0.5390394727165013, "interval50": [ -14.299598132470289, -3.6744632948398763 ], "interval95": [ -26.053684239536828, 8.079622812226665 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.12993146419869195, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 13191 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.13191, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": -8.987030713655082, "candidate_mean_share": { "Cyndi Munson": 44.22923354586792, "Mike Mazzei": 52.69052030313543 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 8.461286757267509, "leader_id": "GOV-OK:R", "leader_margin": 8.461286757267509, "leader_party": "R", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-OK:D", "two_party_dr_margin": -8.987030713655082 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid R|Solid R|Safe R|Likely R", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -33.43997607547707, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -34.94008381234161 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": 0.2244748202266275, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 72.17552235335539, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 72.17552235335539 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": -5.964631664228981, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -33.43997607547707, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -33.43997607547707 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": -0.9613275380137857, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": -13.66, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": -13.66 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": -9.808707002845962, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": -15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": -15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 0.4280573876534452, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 0.96, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": -13.7, "poll_blend": null, "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": -17.46767, "environment_after_polling_D": 2.4, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": null, "poll_weight": 0, "prior_D": -17.46767 }, "pres_lean": -33.9, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": -24.1 }, "open": true, "p": "Oklahoma", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.944706900044172, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": -8.987030713655082, "final_p_d": 0.13191, "final_total_sigma": 8.034422768043486, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": null, "n_eff": 0 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.518272652910626, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.944706900044172, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-OK", "rating": "Likely R", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.13191 }, { "band": { "p10": -2.474161258713208, "p90": 14.758962529221593 }, "base": 6.142400635254193, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-or-alexander-forest-5676a764", "cand-us-or-atkinson-james-de669aaa", "cand-us-or-beckwith-donnie-31730abf", "cand-us-or-beem-david-b4d7c683", "cand-us-or-bethell-danielle-dc249729", "cand-us-or-dalrymple-hope-7652164b", "cand-us-or-diehl-ed-5a1e81a8", "cand-us-or-drazan-christine-3b8c927f", "cand-us-or-dudley-chris-e74f296d", "cand-us-or-duyck-kyle-611a9d96", "cand-us-or-in-write-ba0c271b", "cand-us-or-jones-brittany-7d0e60d4", "cand-us-or-kishawi-cal-cf9a4005", "cand-us-or-kotek-tina-04ea8b34", "cand-us-or-laible-steve-8db457ad", "cand-us-or-medina-david-0a8273df", "cand-us-or-neuman-robert-bab5119e", "cand-us-or-peters-brad-dff34599", "cand-us-or-romero-paul-d95cd33a", "cand-us-or-sheppard-tristan-dc42ae3d", "cand-us-or-turner-deangelo-9f7b3d47", "cand-us-or-waddell-wen-4fd8d4e3", "cand-us-or-ward-martin-ce79a1f0", "cand-us-or-weigler-miranda-62be82ea", "cand-us-or-youker-tim-6289aa67" ], "centre_v2_stack": 4.65854576307968, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": 16.2109918916363, "historical_calibration": 1.483854872174513, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -12.514728177581407, "structural_calibration": 0 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 1.483854872174513, "polls": -12.514728177581407, "prior": 16.2109918916363 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.245536964937476, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-OR:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.82115, "incumbent": true, "is_generic": false, "name": "Tina Kotek", "party": "D", "share_mean": 50.645695243696665, "share_p10": 45.72377950891067, "share_p90": 55.468057610826264, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.82115 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-OR:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.17884999999999995, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Christine Drazan", "party": "R", "share_mean": 44.71995693103128, "share_p10": 39.931878091576564, "share_p90": 49.49521440200246, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.17884999999999995 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 4.63434782527206, "p10": 1.2894399804715018, "p90": 9.266850268989618 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": 6.142400635254193, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.245536964937476, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-OR:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-OR:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.82115, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 6.142400635254193, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.82115, "sigma": 6.245536964937476 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 1.483854872174513, "interval50": [ 1.7116946426898938, 10.573106627818492 ], "interval95": [ -8.479476607258745, 20.764277877767128 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.8235016064067127, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 82115 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.82115, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 6.142400635254193, "candidate_mean_share": { "Christine Drazan": 44.71995693103128, "Tina Kotek": 50.645695243696665 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 5.925738312665388, "leader_id": "GOV-OR:D", "leader_margin": 5.925738312665388, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-OR:R", "two_party_dr_margin": 6.142400635254193 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid D|Solid D|Likely D|Likely D", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": 16.366223806639734, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": 14.866116069775194 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": -0.2213662737393556, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 83.5886994131471, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 83.5886994131471 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 4.270545749019147, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": 16.366223806639734, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": 16.366223806639734 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 0.5981269124139452, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": 3.42, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": 3.42 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 6.181614179589901, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 7.5, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 7.5 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 4.000690199991815, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 1 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 4.231727069178616, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 1 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 8.23, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": 3.4, "poll_blend": "2 poll(s) / 2 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 4.38486199456672, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": -1.2579912262140067, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": 17.099999999999998 }, "pres_lean": 14.9, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": 16.5 }, "open": false, "p": "Oregon", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.9447069000441735, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 6.142400635254193, "final_p_d": 0.82115, "final_total_sigma": 6.723538970752034, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": -0.48443946742547345, "n_eff": 0.6614693779899379 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.245536964937476, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.9447069000441735, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-OR", "rating": "Lean D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.82115 }, { "band": { "p10": 11.40556062577403, "p90": 27.099846106834917 }, "base": 19.252703366304473, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-pa-garrity-stacy-f41266fc", "cand-us-pa-shapiro-josh-4aaecb9a" ], "centre_v2_stack": 16.01592357297205, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": 10.205929539832479, "historical_calibration": 3.236779793332424, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": 4.045092234112396, "structural_calibration": 0.802619750002389 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0.802619750002389, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 3.236779793332424, "polls": 4.045092234112396, "prior": 10.205929539832479 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 5.668281837959607, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-PA:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.98769, "incumbent": true, "is_generic": false, "name": "Josh Shapiro", "party": "D", "share_mean": 57.92045832054231, "share_p10": 53.19785668750487, "share_p90": 62.593604406920605, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.98769 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-PA:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.012310000000000043, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Stacy Garrity", "party": "R", "share_mean": 39.23336999964195, "share_p10": 34.72146357222003, "share_p90": 43.7517482475955, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.012310000000000043 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 2.8461716798157535, "p10": 0.7703360227994092, "p90": 5.722370621994181 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": 19.252703366304473, "distribution": { "core_scale": 5.668281837959607, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-PA:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-PA:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.98769, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 19.252703366304473, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.98769, "sigma": 5.668281837959607 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 3.236779793332424, "interval50": [ 15.224231087045297, 23.28117564556365 ], "interval95": [ 5.760476546361275, 32.74493018624767 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.9871790775912026, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 98769 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.98769, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 19.252703366304473, "candidate_mean_share": { "Josh Shapiro": 57.92045832054231, "Stacy Garrity": 39.23336999964195 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 18.687088320900358, "leader_id": "GOV-PA:D", "leader_margin": 18.687088320900358, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-PA:R", "two_party_dr_margin": 19.252703366304473 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid D|Likely D|Likely D|Safe D", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -0.22627695526261382, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -1.7263846921271542 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": -0.14634514669681037, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 81.66821828713626, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 81.66821828713626 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 0.8607857305981739, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -0.22627695526261382, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -0.22627695526261382 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 1.6344154377274547, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": 14.77, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": 14.77 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 11.511721240401856, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 4.000690199991815, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 1 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 4.231727069178616, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 1 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 8.23, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": 14.8, "poll_blend": "15 poll(s) / 7 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 19.357555968944304, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.5907163619045588, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": 19.11515404383507, "poll_weight": 0.7538681825397672, "prior_D": 20.099999999999998 }, "pres_lean": -0.8, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": 15.2 }, "open": false, "p": "Pennsylvania", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.983722107347791, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 19.252703366304473, "final_p_d": 0.98769, "final_total_sigma": 6.123158015257677, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": 18.64997050100329, "n_eff": 4.302354022296856 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 5.668281837959607, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.983722107347791, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-PA", "rating": "Solid D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.98769 }, { "band": { "p10": 20.13472016702281, "p90": 39.3200120067786 }, "base": 29.727366086900705, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_MULTIPARTY_FIELD", "binary_withheld_reason": "TWO_PARTY_MARGIN_NOT_APPLICABLE_CANDIDATE_FIELD_PUBLISHED", "candidate_ids": [ "cand-ctm-gov-ri-d-gregersen-wil", "cand-ctm-gov-ri-d-stevens-gregory", "cand-ctm-gov-ri-i-block-ken", "cand-ctm-gov-ri-r-raimondo-robert", "cand-us-ri-foulkes-helena-2c115217", "cand-us-ri-guckian-aaron-8b12e6b2", "cand-us-ri-mckee-daniel-322bb9aa", "cand-us-ri-pelino-elaine-61e8f1df" ], "centre_v2_stack": 25.09006201122885, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": 22.114526028363017, "historical_calibration": 4.637304075671857, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": 0, "structural_calibration": 2.013253933841046 }, "decomp_candidate": { "final_lead": 25.22561600712607, "leader_id": "GOV-RI:D", "leader_party": "D", "metric": "leader_share_minus_runner_up_share", "note": "stage deltas telescope exactly from the origin lead to the published lead (leader share minus runner-up share from the joint simulation); dr_centre_after is the D-vs-R coordinate after each stage; the candidate_field step is the simulation's own field layer", "origin_lead": 10.871591626809007, "reconciliation_residual": 0, "runner_up_id": "GOV-RI:I", "steps": [ { "delta": 7.9501435663094995, "dr_centre_after": 22.114526028363017, "key": "fundamentals", "pair_margin_after": 18.821735193118506 }, { "delta": 0.3459391547084394, "dr_centre_after": 23.076808077387803, "key": "environment", "pair_margin_after": 19.167674347826946 }, { "delta": 0, "dr_centre_after": 23.076808077387803, "key": "money", "pair_margin_after": 19.167674347826946 }, { "delta": 0, "dr_centre_after": 23.076808077387803, "key": "polls", "pair_margin_after": 19.167674347826946 }, { "delta": 0, "dr_centre_after": 23.076808077387803, "key": "expert_ratings", "pair_margin_after": 19.167674347826946 }, { "delta": 0.7237621909212777, "dr_centre_after": 25.09006201122885, "key": "structural_calibration", "pair_margin_after": 19.891436538748223 }, { "delta": 1.667104830324611, "dr_centre_after": 29.727366086900705, "key": "historical_calibration", "pair_margin_after": 21.558541369072834 }, { "delta": 3.6670746380532364, "dr_centre_after": 29.727366086900705, "key": "candidate_field", "pair_margin_after": 25.22561600712607 } ], "sum_of_steps": 14.354024380317064 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 2.013253933841046, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 4.637304075671857, "polls": 0, "prior": 22.114526028363017 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.982989904044668, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-RI:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "claim_strength_ctmm21": "WIN_PROBABILITY_FROM_JOINT_SIMULATION; share distribution re-centred on the CTMM 2.2 two-party centre, dispersion carried", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.87946, "incumbent": true, "is_generic": true, "name": "The Democratic nominee", "party": "D", "share_mean": 50.303895320860995, "share_p10": 38.738512219783885, "share_p90": 59.866198906420735, "share_source": "ctmm21_joint_simulation", "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.87946 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-RI:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "claim_strength_ctmm21": "WIN_PROBABILITY_FROM_JOINT_SIMULATION; share distribution re-centred on the CTMM 2.2 two-party centre, dispersion carried", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.00599, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": true, "name": "The Republican nominee", "party": "R", "share_mean": 21.595846560226875, "share_p10": 9.954139512444526, "share_p90": 31.02825936183064, "share_source": "ctmm21_joint_simulation", "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.00599 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-RI:I", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "claim_strength_ctmm21": "WIN_PROBABILITY_FROM_JOINT_SIMULATION; share distribution re-centred on the CTMM 2.2 two-party centre, dispersion carried", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.11455, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Ken Block", "party": "I", "share_mean": 25.078279313734924, "share_p10": 10.57149070851683, "share_p90": 42.79331307045716, "share_source": "ctmm21_joint_simulation", "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.11455 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "THIRD_PRINCIPAL", "other_share": { "mean": 3.021978805177214, "p10": 0.8201662157039579, "p90": 6.072925297971036 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": 29.727366086900705, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.982989904044668, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-RI:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-RI:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.87946, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 29.727366086900705, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.87946, "sigma": 6.982989904044668 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 4.637304075671857, "interval50": [ 24.784861067321348, 34.66987110648006 ], "interval95": [ 13.681943527815296, 45.77278864598611 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.9934950684652343, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 87946 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.87946, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 29.727366086900705, "candidate_mean_share": { "Ken Block": 25.078279313734924, "The Democratic nominee": 50.303895320860995, "The Republican nominee": 21.595846560226875 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 25.22561600712607, "leader_id": "GOV-RI:D", "leader_margin": 25.22561600712607, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "field_lead", "runner_up_id": "GOV-RI:I", "two_party_dr_margin": 29.727366086900705 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "nomination_hold": { "automatic_promotion_rule_v1": "The next governed pipeline run admits named-candidate inputs only after both principal slots are settled, including a sourced, ballot-qualified independent opposite a genuinely vacant major slot.", "candidate_inputs_admitted": true, "candidate_inputs_admitted_v1": false, "contract": "ctmm21-candidate-admission-v1", "contract_v1": "ctm-generic-general-before-nominees-v1", "general_matchup_v1": "A_DEMOCRAT_VS_A_REPUBLICAN", "nominee_status_veto": false, "nominees_settled": false, "party_status": { "D": "presumptive", "R": "presumptive" }, "polls_admitted_ctmm21": 0, "race_id": "GOV-RI", "reconciled_ctmm21": "No named-candidate polls were admitted for this race. CTMM 2.2 has no nominee-status polling veto; an empty poll set is not a withheld-polls claim. Any earlier-model counterfactual is retained as historical context only.", "withheld_inputs": [], "withheld_inputs_v1": [ "candidate_quality", "candidate_finance", "candidate_advertising", "named_candidate_general_election_polls" ] }, "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid D|Solid D|Safe D|Likely D", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "Shared national-environment base (generic_ballot_D from the edition's feeds/environment.json) as fitted inside the R62 blind-nested route; measured per-race by shared_env_gov_loading_2026.json and re-booked out of release_layers.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": 15.662514004755213, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": 14.162406267890672 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": -0.13086913562934394, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 81.27204472466566, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 81.27204472466566 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 4.125933337576854, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": 15.662514004755213, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": 15.662514004755213 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 2.0261051094098295, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": 19.06, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": 19.06 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 11.511721240401856, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 4.000690199991815, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 1 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 4.231727069178616, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 1 } ] }, "fundamentals": "Generic-party governor center; candidate incumbency is zero until both nominees are official.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 8.23, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": 19.1, "poll_blend": null, "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 23.852455999999997, "environment_after_polling_D": 2.4, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": null, "poll_weight": 0, "prior_D": 23.852455999999997 }, "polls": null, "pres_lean": 16, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": 25.4 }, "open": false, "p": "Rhode Island", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.905691692740556, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 29.727366086900705, "final_p_d": 0.87946, "final_total_sigma": 7.485181383085012, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": null, "n_eff": 0 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.982989904044668, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.905691692740556, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-RI", "rating": "Solid D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.87946 }, { "band": { "p10": -21.484982674309936, "p90": -2.273948218437159 }, "base": -11.879465446373548, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-sc-evette-pamela-cfb3ea17", "cand-us-sc-johnson-jermaine-c96b6567", "cand-us-sc-kimbrell-joshua-9c9b111a", "cand-us-sc-mace-nancy-82d766ad", "cand-us-sc-mcleod-mullins-6b7e338b", "cand-us-sc-norman-ralph-29cda66d", "cand-us-sc-reddy-rom-94c5c8b5", "cand-us-sc-webster-billy-8c475b97", "cand-us-sc-wilson-alan-21772f73" ], "centre_v2_stack": -10.95369036351765, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -7.343857038946829, "historical_calibration": -0.9257750828558979, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -4.444877932517534, "structural_calibration": -0.12723744107807278 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": -0.12723744107807278, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": -0.9257750828558979, "polls": -4.444877932517534, "prior": -7.343857038946829 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.99275225273133, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-SC:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.93874, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Alan Wilson", "party": "R", "share_mean": 55.19398949621791, "share_p10": 50.76639825990589, "share_p90": 59.643665778496505, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.93874 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-SC:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.06126, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Jermaine Johnson", "party": "D", "share_mean": 43.45473169592665, "share_p10": 39.024563188737886, "share_p90": 47.86479559763483, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.06126 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "official_ballot_candidates": [ { "affiliation": "United Citizens", "ballot_status": "OFFICIAL_GENERAL_BALLOT", "name": "Michael Addison", "party": "O", "source_sha256": "0b109f1741af9b2dee615cb316216f27eafda84ecf862573b52e3eb6df84c236", "source_url": "https://vrems.scvotes.sc.gov/Candidate/CandidateSearch?electionId=22596", "verified_as_of": "2026-08-31" }, { "affiliation": "Green", "ballot_status": "OFFICIAL_GENERAL_BALLOT", "name": "Walid Hakim", "party": "O", "source_sha256": "0b109f1741af9b2dee615cb316216f27eafda84ecf862573b52e3eb6df84c236", "source_url": "https://vrems.scvotes.sc.gov/Candidate/CandidateSearch?electionId=22596", "verified_as_of": "2026-08-31" } ], "other_share": { "mean": 1.3512788078554572, "p10": 0.3571958207042006, "p90": 2.726366329513422 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": -11.879465446373548, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.99275225273133, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-SC:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-SC:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.06126, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": -11.879465446373548, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.06126, "sigma": 6.99275225273133 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": -0.9257750828558979, "interval50": [ -16.828730266633716, -6.930200626113379 ], "interval95": [ -27.943598829797043, 4.184667937049948 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.060271216683970064, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 6126 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.06126, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": -11.879465446373548, "candidate_mean_share": { "Alan Wilson": 55.19398949621791, "Jermaine Johnson": 43.45473169592665 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 11.739257800291263, "leader_id": "GOV-SC:R", "leader_margin": 11.739257800291263, "leader_party": "R", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-SC:D", "two_party_dr_margin": -11.879465446373548 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid R|Solid R|Safe R|Likely R", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -16.623257490173607, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -18.123365227038146 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": 0.4377693820345949, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 66.71535138044199, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 66.71535138044199 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": -2.5087948680744234, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -16.623257490173607, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -16.623257490173607 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": -1.3219742054136414, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": -17.61, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": -17.61 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": -9.808707002845962, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": -15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": -15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 0.4280573876534452, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 0.96, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": -17.6, "poll_blend": "2 poll(s) / 2 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": -11.431954723617523, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": -10.234268342929784, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": -14.130722 }, "pres_lean": -16, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": -12.7 }, "open": true, "p": "South Carolina", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.905691692740554, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": -11.879465446373548, "final_p_d": 0.06126, "final_total_sigma": 7.4952249181284305, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": -9.412275900738654, "n_eff": 1.2746687423229386 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.99275225273133, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.905691692740554, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-SC", "rating": "Likely R", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.06126 }, { "band": { "p10": -30.610767685404006, "p90": -12.442409153926782 }, "base": -21.526588419665394, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-sd-ahlers-dan-2e8513e7", "cand-us-sd-doeden-toby-424438b1", "cand-us-sd-hansen-jon-a56c3e3a", "cand-us-sd-johnson-dusty-7546faff", "cand-us-sd-rhoden-larry-dfec6ad4" ], "centre_v2_stack": -19.31093600718024, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -19.030991315834502, "historical_calibration": -2.2156524124851558, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": 0, "structural_calibration": -1.2422267403705227 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": -1.2422267403705227, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": -2.2156524124851558, "polls": 0, "prior": -19.030991315834502 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.598122436084075, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-SD:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.98857, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Larry Rhoden", "party": "R", "share_mean": 59.53336104300445, "share_p10": 55.00583371053313, "share_p90": 64.07018209624783, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.98857 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-SD:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.01143, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Dan Ahlers", "party": "D", "share_mean": 38.434212633825766, "share_p10": 33.98292455149394, "share_p90": 42.84403015544298, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.01143 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 2.0324263231697848, "p10": 0.5431003249973364, "p90": 4.094648529968268 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": -21.526588419665394, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.598122436084075, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-SD:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-SD:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.01143, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": -21.526588419665394, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.01143, "sigma": 6.598122436084075 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": -2.2156524124851558, "interval50": [ -26.202278462189078, -16.85089837714171 ], "interval95": [ -36.83164411499005, -6.22153272434074 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.011499288853983547, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 1143 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.01143, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": -21.526588419665394, "candidate_mean_share": { "Dan Ahlers": 38.434212633825766, "Larry Rhoden": 59.53336104300445 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 21.09914840917868, "leader_id": "GOV-SD:R", "leader_margin": 21.09914840917868, "leader_party": "R", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-SD:D", "two_party_dr_margin": -21.526588419665394 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid R|Solid R|Safe R|Likely R", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -28.39009133698852, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -29.890199073853058 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": -0.3145275795992954, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 85.97355467501318, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 85.97355467501318 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": -4.926880012080896, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -28.39009133698852, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -28.39009133698852 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": -2.1619613801171034, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": -26.81, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": -26.81 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": -9.808707002845962, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": -15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": -15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": -3.144575424684924, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": -2.62, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": -26.8, "poll_blend": null, "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": -21.732701000000002, "environment_after_polling_D": 2.4, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": null, "poll_weight": 0, "prior_D": -21.732701000000002 }, "pres_lean": -28.3, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": -27.7 }, "open": false, "p": "South Dakota", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.905691692740554, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": -21.526588419665394, "final_p_d": 0.01143, "final_total_sigma": 7.08842274472058, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": null, "n_eff": 0 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.598122436084075, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.905691692740554, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-SD", "rating": "Solid R", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.01143 }, { "band": { "p10": -37.00318524113955, "p90": -16.881311120114066 }, "base": -26.94224818062681, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-tn-atwater-carnita-2b815654", "cand-us-tn-blackburn-marsha-4df289b7", "cand-us-tn-cyr-tim-546aa2d2", "cand-us-tn-fritts-monty-91988802", "cand-us-tn-green-jerri-a9bb883d", "cand-us-tn-kurtz-adam-134f1025", "cand-us-tn-mccants-kevin-7192c963", "cand-us-tn-rose-john-14c01abf" ], "centre_v2_stack": -24.002490066370353, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -18.369017397334172, "historical_calibration": -2.939758114256456, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -4.727600154566591, "structural_calibration": -1.8681545634943753 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": -1.8681545634943753, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": -2.939758114256456, "polls": -4.727600154566591, "prior": -18.369017397334172 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.338792677249039, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-TN:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.99232, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Marsha Blackburn", "party": "R", "share_mean": 62.27546451372525, "share_p10": 57.68443746110714, "share_p90": 66.86825681526803, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.99232 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-TN:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.00768, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Jerri Green", "party": "D", "share_mean": 35.743345517471774, "share_p10": 31.228923658533184, "share_p90": 40.224400429481, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.00768 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 1.9811899688029808, "p10": 0.528980150004066, "p90": 3.9918970789873636 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": -26.94224818062681, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.338792677249039, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-TN:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-TN:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.00768, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": -26.94224818062681, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.00768, "sigma": 7.338792677249039 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": -2.939758114256456, "interval50": [ -32.13086671715446, -21.753629644099153 ], "interval95": [ -43.66752579339364, -10.216970567859978 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.007956084075066205, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 768 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.00768, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": -26.94224818062681, "candidate_mean_share": { "Jerri Green": 35.743345517471774, "Marsha Blackburn": 62.27546451372525 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 26.532118996253473, "leader_id": "GOV-TN:R", "leader_margin": 26.532118996253473, "leader_party": "R", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-TN:D", "two_party_dr_margin": -26.94224818062681 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid R|Solid R|Safe R|Safe R", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -28.620991918128794, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -30.121099654993333 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": 0.009790743230840242, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 77.67126380884766, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 77.67126380884766 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": -4.974330096977684, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -28.620991918128794, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -28.620991918128794 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": -2.634910680656661, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": -31.99, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": -31.99 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": -9.808707002845962, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": -15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": -15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 0.4280573876534452, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 0.96, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": -32, "poll_blend": "3 poll(s) / 2 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": -21.3828756457019, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": -22.742013940679875, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": -18.320306000000002 }, "pres_lean": -27.8, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": -25.3 }, "open": true, "p": "Tennessee", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 7.022737314651411, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": -26.94224818062681, "final_p_d": 0.00768, "final_total_sigma": 7.850590901691346, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": -21.757051587740698, "n_eff": 0.8614489606616763 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 7.338792677249039, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 7.022737314651411, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-TN", "rating": "Solid R", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.00768 }, { "band": { "p10": -17.73847075910828, "p90": -2.4995067787054968 }, "base": -10.11898876890689, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-tx-abbott-greg-a6033c51", "cand-us-tx-abrego-patricia-2fc9812e", "cand-us-tx-achgill-r-0589c2fe", "cand-us-tx-balbuena-jose-c7577855", "cand-us-tx-bell-chris-ca3b18fb", "cand-us-tx-brooks-evelyn-d3c1e963", "cand-us-tx-chambers-pete-023762d1", "cand-us-tx-cole-bobby-a6b4e081", "cand-us-tx-crouch-charles-07686ae8", "cand-us-tx-espinosa-arturo-f1f017a6", "cand-us-tx-goloby-mark-e12a177d", "cand-us-tx-hart-carlton-f81feb5d", "cand-us-tx-hinojosa-gina-3d590f67", "cand-us-tx-hyde-kenneth-9dafdf27", "cand-us-tx-samuelson-stephen-ad6088f5", "cand-us-tx-tullos-ronnie-94e5079d", "cand-us-tx-vance-zach-9b517c48", "cand-us-tx-villescaz-angela-d671bdb5", "cand-us-tx-welch-nathaniel-dada1cf7", "cand-us-tx-white-andrew-c8619a4b" ], "centre_v2_stack": -9.428599817428399, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -20.87898771018853, "historical_calibration": -0.6903889514784911, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": 10.488105843735344, "structural_calibration": 0 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": -0.6903889514784911, "polls": 10.488105843735344, "prior": -20.87898771018853 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 5.498178472951504, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-TX:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.94066, "incumbent": true, "is_generic": false, "name": "Greg Abbott", "party": "R", "share_mean": 54.31831039042819, "share_p10": 49.99093440962144, "share_p90": 58.66759324150569, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.94066 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-TX:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.05934, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Gina Hinojosa", "party": "D", "share_mean": 44.27314573182258, "share_p10": 39.936428556317786, "share_p90": 48.58998894924824, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.05934 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 1.4085438777492358, "p10": 0.3726742103584382, "p90": 2.8415804170954617 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": -10.11898876890689, "distribution": { "core_scale": 5.498178472951504, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-TX:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-TX:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.05934, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": -10.11898876890689, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.05934, "sigma": 5.498178472951504 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": -0.6903889514784911, "interval50": [ -14.02865918070495, -6.209318357108829 ], "interval95": [ -23.275480399608227, 3.037502861794449 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.050640274396126506, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 5934 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.05934, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": -10.11898876890689, "candidate_mean_share": { "Gina Hinojosa": 44.27314573182258, "Greg Abbott": 54.31831039042819 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 10.045164658605607, "leader_id": "GOV-TX:R", "leader_margin": 10.045164658605607, "leader_party": "R", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-TX:D", "two_party_dr_margin": -10.11898876890689 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid R|Solid R|Safe R|Lean R", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -12.377960064753916, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -13.878067801618457 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": 0.3002458449480404, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 70.23584444377866, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 70.23584444377866 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": -1.6363859626767339, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -12.377960064753916, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -12.377960064753916 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": -0.7093313856027472, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": -10.9, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": -10.9 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": -6.255302295637993, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": -10, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": -10 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": -3.144575424684924, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": -10.579317672946543, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": -3, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": -3 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": -13.72, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": -10.9, "poll_blend": "26 poll(s) / 17 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": -6.219623186717875, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.20899079159331366, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": -4.525772643976962, "poll_weight": 0.912920503502786, "prior_D": -23.977545 }, "pres_lean": -11.2, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": -11.3 }, "open": false, "p": "Texas", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.749630863526079, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": -10.11898876890689, "final_p_d": 0.05934, "final_total_sigma": 5.945513387877969, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": -4.545621575733734, "n_eff": 10.821826012128676 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 5.498178472951504, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.749630863526079, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-TX", "rating": "Likely R", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.05934 }, { "band": { "p10": -34.560735558084744, "p90": -17.013302781804796 }, "base": -25.78701916994477, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-vt-janoo-amanda-db725584", "cand-us-vt-richards-aly-96927af8", "cand-us-vt-scott-phil-f57f2389" ], "centre_v2_stack": -23.001721998658997, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -29.743624499574704, "historical_calibration": -2.785297171285773, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": 7.514256660876008, "structural_calibration": -1.734636208985087 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": -1.734636208985087, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": -2.785297171285773, "polls": 7.514256660876008, "prior": -29.743624499574704 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.363885272346086, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-VT:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.99061, "incumbent": true, "is_generic": false, "name": "Phil Scott", "party": "R", "share_mean": 60.06885035850014, "share_p10": 55.010135818391305, "share_p90": 65.03572939854583, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.99061 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-VT:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.00939, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Amanda Janoo", "party": "D", "share_mean": 35.17725789249003, "share_p10": 30.537756351445065, "share_p90": 39.77037600911889, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.00939 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 4.75389174900983, "p10": 1.325117982442431, "p90": 9.502010487188256 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": -25.78701916994477, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.363885272346086, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-VT:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-VT:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.00939, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": -25.78701916994477, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.00939, "sigma": 6.363885272346086 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": -2.785297171285773, "interval50": [ -30.300014942138787, -21.274023397750753 ], "interval95": [ -40.63875841703124, -10.9352799228583 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.008477733215869754, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 939 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.00939, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": -25.78701916994477, "candidate_mean_share": { "Amanda Janoo": 35.17725789249003, "Phil Scott": 60.06885035850014 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 24.89159246601011, "leader_id": "GOV-VT:R", "leader_margin": 24.89159246601011, "leader_party": "R", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-VT:D", "two_party_dr_margin": -25.78701916994477 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid R|Solid R|Likely R|Lean R", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": 34.27054350854473, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": 32.77043577168019 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": -0.6777698436591286, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 95.2722674482929, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 95.2722674482929 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 7.9498846475145895, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": 34.27054350854473, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": 34.27054350854473 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": -3.3662473403713054, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": -40, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": -40 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": -9.808707002845962, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": -15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": -15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": -3.144575424684924, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": -17.98484004400912, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": -5, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": -5 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": -21.13, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": -40, "poll_blend": "2 poll(s) / 1 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": -19.059429182348417, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.7377085849423137, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": -14.650459604128784, "poll_weight": 0.6926214229407026, "prior_D": -28.994236 }, "pres_lean": 32.9, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": -6.2 }, "open": false, "p": "Vermont", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.866676485436934, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": -25.78701916994477, "final_p_d": 0.00939, "final_total_sigma": 6.846167274128801, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": -12.659067543791306, "n_eff": 0.6888421996195402 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.363885272346086, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 0, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.866676485436934, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-VT", "rating": "Solid R", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.00939 }, { "band": { "p10": -7.311867633213161, "p90": 10.50673888476981 }, "base": 1.597435625778324, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-us-wi-barnes-mandela-f0cb1a82", "cand-us-wi-brennan-joel-1daa3282", "cand-us-wi-crowley-david-bf7b0d3f", "cand-us-wi-hong-francesca-4b905c52", "cand-us-wi-hughes-missy-5a4ae92b", "cand-us-wi-manske-andy-cefca7a3", "cand-us-wi-rodriguez-sara-2c1cc31e", "cand-us-wi-roys-kelda-a0624b67", "cand-us-wi-tiffany-tom-e22d96fc" ], "centre_v2_stack": 0.7212694236779245, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -2.626531022040118, "historical_calibration": 0.8761662021003995, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": 2.3855183966932563, "structural_calibration": 0 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": 0, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 0.8761662021003995, "polls": 2.3855183966932563, "prior": -2.626531022040118 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.4661113194673385, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-WI:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.59302, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "David Crowley", "party": "D", "share_mean": 50.157243895631616, "share_p10": 45.71964847051351, "share_p90": 54.574863139224114, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.59302 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-WI:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.40698, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Tom Tiffany", "party": "R", "share_mean": 48.61304027103679, "share_p10": 44.21104201809475, "share_p90": 53.0479083196175, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.40698 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 1.2297158333315912, "p10": 0.3244299125991137, "p90": 2.4816868761309845 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": 1.597435625778324, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.4661113194673385, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-WI:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-WI:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.59302, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": 1.597435625778324, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.59302, "sigma": 6.4661113194673385 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 0.8761662021003995, "interval50": [ -2.9865919427282748, 6.181463194284923 ], "interval95": [ -13.452402748227406, 16.647273999784055 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.5934153908924311, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 59302 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.59302, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": 1.597435625778324, "candidate_mean_share": { "David Crowley": 50.157243895631616, "Tom Tiffany": 48.61304027103679 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 1.5442036245948287, "leader_id": "GOV-WI:D", "leader_margin": 1.5442036245948287, "leader_party": "D", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-WI:R", "two_party_dr_margin": 1.597435625778324 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Tossup|Tossup|Tossup|Tossup", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": 0.6267189545194899, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -0.8733887823450505 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": -0.3229089412836055, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 86.18811086151061, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 86.18811086151061 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": 1.0360764472169615, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": 0.6267189545194899, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": 0.6267189545194899 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": 0.5963008533385028, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": 3.4, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": 3.4 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": 0.8515071187779465, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 0.4280573876534452, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 0.96, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": 3.4, "poll_blend": "6 poll(s) / 5 pollster(s)", "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": 3.1915037348931925, "environment_after_polling_D": 0.5355097826007631, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": 3.7350464986182788, "poll_weight": 0.7768709239163487, "prior_D": 1.299045 }, "pres_lean": -0.4, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": 4.5 }, "open": true, "p": "Wisconsin", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.905691692740554, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": 1.597435625778324, "final_p_d": 0.59302, "final_total_sigma": 6.9519662716072155, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": 3.785300347315978, "n_eff": 4.0633601177825165 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 6.4661113194673385, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.905691692740554, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-WI", "rating": "Tilt D", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.59302 }, { "band": { "p10": -42.679807125861956, "p90": -20.348137909022356 }, "base": -31.513972517442156, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-r42-wy-brent-bien", "cand-r42-wy-curt-blake", "cand-r42-wy-eric-barlow", "cand-r42-wy-kenneth-casner", "cand-r42-wy-megan-degenfelder" ], "centre_v2_stack": -27.962947852971894, "decomp": { "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -26.528687369469854, "historical_calibration": -3.551024664470262, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": 0, "structural_calibration": -2.3965425325268264 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": -2.3965425325268264, "environment": 0.9622820490247861, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": -3.551024664470262, "polls": 0, "prior": -26.528687369469854 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "core_scale": 8.183275059829748, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "GOV-WY:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.99412, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Eric Barlow", "party": "R", "share_mean": 64.62856878568057, "share_p10": 60.07227015222571, "share_p90": 69.18445870381748, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.99412 }, { "cand_id": "GOV-WY:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.00588, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Kenneth Casner", "party": "D", "share_mean": 33.5268718421039, "share_p10": 29.05088614016263, "share_p90": 37.976739235571756, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.00588 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 1.8445593722155362, "p10": 0.4914347031998836, "p90": 3.717750392360534 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": -31.513972517442156, "distribution": { "core_scale": 8.183275059829748, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "pivot_a": "GOV-WY:D", "pivot_b": "GOV-WY:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.00588, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": -31.513972517442156, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.00588, "sigma": 8.183275059829748 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": -3.551024664470262, "interval50": [ -37.284633543353905, -25.743311491530406 ], "interval95": [ -49.837085652379486, -13.190859382504826 ], "joint_probability": { "analytical_probability": 0.005778587707140126, "draws": 100000, "kind": "ctmm21_joint_seat_frequency", "wins": 588 }, "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.00588, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": -31.513972517442156, "candidate_mean_share": { "Eric Barlow": 64.62856878568057, "Kenneth Casner": 33.5268718421039 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 31.10169694357667, "leader_id": "GOV-WY:R", "leader_margin": 31.10169694357667, "leader_party": "R", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "GOV-WY:D", "two_party_dr_margin": -31.513972517442156 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_cook_ie_sabato_wh": "Solid R|Solid R|Safe R|Safe R", "consensus_layer": "Exact revision from the governed legacy governor lane to this release's validated consensus lane, after separately disclosed environment and nomination rebookings.", "environment": "National-environment contribution in the current governor prior; its influence is attenuated by the polling blend. The source and full blend arithmetic are in environment_work and poll_blend_work. No frozen-adapter rebooking is applied.", "environment_work": { "beta": 0.4216, "environment_X": 7.5, "environment_contribution_d": 2.355426041299269, "implied_environment_ew1_priors": 1.913126087999836, "source": "scripts/model/environment_elasticity_2026.json" }, "ew1_formula_identity": "17dc1cfad4e7dbed3a46c49eb2a84200b68982895540d19f84f9ad928a12e9e2", "formula_work": { "approval_custody": { "approval": null, "field_end": null, "pollster": "Gallup", "reason": "No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.", "reviewed_on": "2026-08-31", "schema": "ctm-governor-approval-custody-v1", "sources": [ { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.024128+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/gallup-approval-center.html", "sha256": "e044e19d4e696d5de5ff734d6921e8306101371976537c141352fdf1dd1b9b0f", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx/" }, { "capture_kind": "http_response_body", "captured_at": "2026-08-31T14:36:19.481316+00:00", "path": "scripts/model/external/governor_approval_2026/app-trump-second-term.html", "sha256": "7a11ae78c126758b1b07e0e1d985e87f9b4de4dc9ad41417ac8af539151f0aeb", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/donald-j-trump-2nd-term-public-approval" } ], "status": "WITHHELD_UNSUPPORTED_CURRENT_GALLUP_OBSERVATION", "supersedes_claim": { "admitted": "2026-08-01", "approval": 40, "field_end": "2026-07-06" } }, "intercept_D": -6.136036866359446, "presidential_custody": { "national_margin_D": -1.5001077368645404, "relative_lean_D": -45.458238311350286, "source_sha256": "68acdee2924d771b92a05cd950dec850b462c633c05563207ac7e206116e7366", "source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5645/2024presgeresults.xlsx", "state_margin_D": -46.95834604821483 }, "terms": [ { "coefficient": -0.5025264912374438, "contribution_D": -0.5004360593262676, "feature": "gov_demo_white_2010", "imputed": false, "raw": 90.7326637494282, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 77.9218990408908, "training_sd": 12.864278101216067, "used": 90.7326637494282 }, { "coefficient": -0.9866615766312538, "contribution_D": 1.784772041765449, "feature": "gov_midterm_wh", "imputed": false, "raw": -1, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": 0.33640552995391704, "training_sd": 0.7387946227008093, "used": -1 }, { "coefficient": 4.163071868712029, "contribution_D": -8.434385359034948, "feature": "gov_pres_lean_rel", "imputed": false, "raw": -45.458238311350286, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -4.415013937813955, "training_sd": 20.258250662885917, "used": -45.458238311350286 }, { "coefficient": 1.755475189121727, "contribution_D": -3.3662473403713054, "feature": "gov_seat_margin_lag1", "imputed": false, "raw": -40, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -3.131013824884794, "training_sd": 19.226926584470068, "used": -40 }, { "coefficient": 5.315289730546605, "contribution_D": -9.808707002845962, "feature": "expert_rating_mean", "imputed": false, "raw": -15, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -1.1981566820276497, "training_sd": 7.479150516917912, "used": -15 }, { "coefficient": 2.530708535542406, "contribution_D": 0.4280573876534452, "feature": "gov_inc_running_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.11981566820276497, "training_sd": 0.7083595400015373, "used": 0 }, { "coefficient": 3.3400737093161705, "contribution_D": 0.528965883647327, "feature": "gov_inc_tenure_signed", "imputed": false, "raw": 0, "support_clamped": false, "training_mean": -0.14285714285714285, "training_sd": 0.9020494549763736, "used": 0 } ] }, "fundamentals": "R60 authoritative center. Components are the fitted model's own decomposition; release_layers is the part contributed by the sealed round rather than the fit.", "governor_ew2": "EW-2 superseded 2026-09-01: EW-1 itself is re-frozen on the de-leaked panel, so the transform applies a zero delta and is retained for carrier shape only.", "incumbency": 0.96, "incumbency_source": "ew1_fitted_terms", "last_gov": -40, "poll_blend": null, "poll_blend_work": { "blended_center_D": -23.068451000000003, "environment_after_polling_D": 2.4, "environment_in_prior_D": 2.4, "poll_center_D": null, "poll_weight": 0, "prior_D": -23.068451000000003 }, "pres_lean": -45.5, "quality": null, "uncompressed_prior": -40.1 }, "open": true, "p": "Wyoming", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 6.983722107347793, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": -31.513972517442156, "final_p_d": 0.00588, "final_total_sigma": 8.71274703930843, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": null, "n_eff": 0 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "core_scale": 8.183275059829748, "family": "core_tail_mixture", "open_seat": 1, "tail_pi": 0.05801721910778454, "tail_scale": 24.442638952848174 }, "method": "core_tail_mixture", "previous_final_total_sigma": 6.983722107347793, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "GOV-WY", "rating": "Solid R", "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "win_prob_D": 0.00588 } ], "release_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "schema_version": "ctm-r62-provisional-federal-compat-v1", "seat_distribution": { "4": 0.00002, "5": 0.00001, "6": 0.00006, "7": 0.00016, "8": 0.00042, "9": 0.00149, "10": 0.0038, "11": 0.00824, "12": 0.01399, "13": 0.02341, "14": 0.03597, "15": 0.05572, "16": 0.07578, "17": 0.0984, "18": 0.11352, "19": 0.11989, "20": 0.12209, "21": 0.10868, "22": 0.08368, "23": 0.05743, "24": 0.03368, "25": 0.0186, "26": 0.01046, "27": 0.00657, "28": 0.00374, "29": 0.00236, "30": 0.00129, "31": 0.00044, "32": 0.0001 }, "shared_environment": { "artifact_id": "feeds/environment.json", "artifact_sha256": "1fecbcda61c427460ab80184b3727e76d38c6b53a2c66f9f161515eb7e13e78f", "consumption": "APPLIED", "contract": "ctm-shared-environment-consumption-v1", "disclosed_races_n": 36, "generic_ballot_D": 7.5, "input_as_of": { "approval": "2026-09-07", "generic_ballot": "2026-09-06", "special_elections": "2026-09-09" }, "join_status": "OK", "loading": { "adapter_embedded_generic_ballot_D": 6, "env_reference_generic_ballot_D": 5.7, "loading_class": "FITTED", "loading_source": "data/model/shared_env_gov_loading_2026.json", "loading_source_sha256": "351db38b81e9e7d0cda3efdd8d81f05c2abe8f79ed93811f829461d10a58b66e", "mean_slope_d_per_env_point": 0.0538 }, "surface": "governor" }, "simulation_draws": 100000, "status": "CTMM21_JOINT_SIMULATION" }