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false, "m": -8.99, "p": 0.1319, "p10": -19.28355779028839, "p90": 1.3094963629782281, "candidate_field": [ [ "D", "Cyndi Munson" ], [ "R", "Mike Mazzei" ] ] } ], "GOV-OR": [ { "d": "2026-09-09", "run_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "provenance_status": "ctmm21_pending_activation", "issued": false, "reconstructed": false, "m": 6.14, "p": 0.8212, "p10": -2.474161258713208, "p90": 14.758962529221593, "candidate_field": [ [ "D", "Tina Kotek" ], [ "R", "Christine Drazan" ] ] } ], "GOV-PA": [ { "d": "2026-09-09", "run_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "provenance_status": "ctmm21_pending_activation", "issued": false, "reconstructed": false, "m": 19.25, "p": 0.9877, "p10": 11.40556062577403, "p90": 27.099846106834917, "candidate_field": [ [ "D", "Josh Shapiro" ], [ "R", "Stacy Garrity" ] ] } ], "GOV-RI": [ { "d": "2026-09-09", "run_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "provenance_status": "ctmm21_pending_activation", "issued": false, "reconstructed": false, "m": 29.73, "p": 0.8795, "p10": 20.13472016702281, "p90": 39.3200120067786, "candidate_field": [ [ "D", "The Democratic nominee" ], [ "I", "Ken Block" ], [ "R", "The Republican nominee" ] ] } ], "GOV-SC": [ { "d": "2026-09-09", "run_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "provenance_status": "ctmm21_pending_activation", "issued": false, "reconstructed": false, "m": -11.88, "p": 0.0613, "p10": -21.484982674309936, "p90": -2.273948218437159, "candidate_field": [ [ "D", "Jermaine Johnson" ], [ "R", "Alan Wilson" ] ] } ], "GOV-SD": [ { "d": "2026-09-09", "run_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "provenance_status": "ctmm21_pending_activation", "issued": false, "reconstructed": false, "m": -21.53, "p": 0.0114, "p10": -30.610767685404006, "p90": -12.442409153926782, "candidate_field": [ [ "D", "Dan Ahlers" ], [ "R", "Larry Rhoden" ] ] } ], "GOV-TN": [ { "d": "2026-09-09", "run_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "provenance_status": "ctmm21_pending_activation", "issued": false, "reconstructed": false, "m": -26.94, "p": 0.0077, "p10": -37.00318524113955, "p90": -16.881311120114066, "candidate_field": [ [ "D", "Jerri Green" ], [ "R", "Marsha Blackburn" ] ] } ], "GOV-TX": [ { "d": "2026-09-09", "run_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "provenance_status": "ctmm21_pending_activation", "issued": false, "reconstructed": false, "m": -10.12, "p": 0.0593, "p10": -17.73847075910828, "p90": -2.4995067787054968, "candidate_field": [ [ "D", "Gina Hinojosa" ], [ "R", "Greg Abbott" ] ] } ], "GOV-VT": [ { "d": "2026-09-09", "run_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "provenance_status": "ctmm21_pending_activation", "issued": false, "reconstructed": false, "m": -25.79, "p": 0.0094, "p10": -34.560735558084744, "p90": -17.013302781804796, "candidate_field": [ [ "D", "Amanda Janoo" ], [ "R", "Phil Scott" ] ] } ], "GOV-WI": [ { "d": "2026-09-09", "run_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "provenance_status": "ctmm21_pending_activation", "issued": false, "reconstructed": false, "m": 1.6, "p": 0.593, "p10": -7.311867633213161, "p90": 10.50673888476981, "candidate_field": [ [ "D", "David Crowley" ], [ "R", "Tom Tiffany" ] ] } ], "GOV-WY": [ { "d": "2026-09-09", "run_id": "ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537", "provenance_status": "ctmm21_pending_activation", "issued": false, "reconstructed": false, "m": -31.51, "p": 0.0059, "p10": -42.679807125861956, "p90": -20.348137909022356, "candidate_field": [ [ "D", "Kenneth Casner" ], [ "R", "Eric Barlow" ] ] } ] }, "reconstruction": { "kind": "ctmm21_reconstructed", "label": "CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.", "computed_at": "2026-09-09T03:30:28+00:00", "through": "2026-09-08", "start": "2026-08-01", "inputs_note": "Dated repository captures, historical House geography/prior rows, and later-collected polls with dated public-availability evidence. Field end alone is insufficient. Unknown poll availability is omitted individually; later fallback captures are flagged. Current fitted method; reconstructed, not issued or an out-of-sample backtest.", "races": { "AK-AL": [ { "d": "2026-08-01", "m": -3.741, "p": 0.2689, "p10": -11.65, "p90": 4.17, "reconstructed": true, "issued": false }, { "d": "2026-08-02", "m": -3.751, "p": 0.2682, "p10": -11.65, "p90": 4.15, "reconstructed": true, "issued": false }, { "d": "2026-08-03", "m": -3.734, "p": 0.2691, "p10": -11.63, "p90": 4.16, "reconstructed": true, "issued": false }, { "d": "2026-08-04", "m": -3.725, "p": 0.2697, "p10": -11.61, "p90": 4.16, "reconstructed": true, "issued": false }, { "d": "2026-08-05", "m": -3.732, "p": 0.269, "p10": -11.62, "p90": 4.15, "reconstructed": true, "issued": false }, { "d": "2026-08-06", "m": -3.726, "p": 0.2693, "p10": -11.6, "p90": 4.15, "reconstructed": true, "issued": false }, { "d": "2026-08-07", "m": -3.631, "p": 0.2743, "p10": -11.5, "p90": 4.24, "reconstructed": true, "issued": false }, { "d": "2026-08-08", "m": -3.626, "p": 0.2747, "p10": -11.49, "p90": 4.24, 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"d": "2026-08-12", "m": -27.001, "p": 0.0072, "p10": -36.27, "p90": -17.73, "reconstructed": true, "issued": false }, { "d": "2026-08-13", "m": -27.027, "p": 0.0072, "p10": -36.3, "p90": -17.76, "reconstructed": true, "issued": false }, { "d": "2026-08-14", "m": -27.022, "p": 0.0072, "p10": -36.28, "p90": -17.76, "reconstructed": true, "issued": false }, { "d": "2026-08-15", "m": -26.951, "p": 0.0073, "p10": -36.2, "p90": -17.7, "reconstructed": true, "issued": false }, { "d": "2026-08-16", "m": -26.975, "p": 0.0073, "p10": -36.22, "p90": -17.73, "reconstructed": true, "issued": false }, { "d": "2026-08-17", "m": -26.978, "p": 0.0073, "p10": -36.22, "p90": -17.74, "reconstructed": true, "issued": false }, { "d": "2026-08-18", "m": -26.969, "p": 0.0073, "p10": -36.2, "p90": -17.74, "reconstructed": true, "issued": false }, { "d": "2026-08-19", "m": -26.978, "p": 0.0073, "p10": -36.2, "p90": -17.75, "reconstructed": true, "issued": false }, { "d": "2026-08-20", "m": -27.013, "p": 0.0072, 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"senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.3801, "expected_D_seats": 49.65945, "expected_R_seats": 50.34055 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.6271 } } }, { "d": "2026-08-17", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.66105, "expected_D_seats": 225.9636 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.3798, "expected_D_seats": 49.6595, "expected_R_seats": 50.3405 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.61315 } } }, { "d": "2026-08-18", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.66545, "expected_D_seats": 226.31785 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.384, "expected_D_seats": 49.6989, "expected_R_seats": 50.3011 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.6802 } } }, { "d": "2026-08-19", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.65845, "expected_D_seats": 225.98795 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.3955, "expected_D_seats": 49.7279, "expected_R_seats": 50.2721 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.7587 } } }, { "d": "2026-08-20", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.65905, "expected_D_seats": 226.0175 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.39645, "expected_D_seats": 49.73035, "expected_R_seats": 50.26965 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.7036 } } }, { "d": "2026-08-21", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.65845, "expected_D_seats": 225.98755 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.39575, "expected_D_seats": 49.71785, "expected_R_seats": 50.28215 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.72695 } } }, { "d": "2026-08-22", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.67525, "expected_D_seats": 226.3784 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.41725, "expected_D_seats": 49.858, "expected_R_seats": 50.142 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.76575 } } }, { "d": "2026-08-23", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.6613, "expected_D_seats": 225.9772 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.4207, "expected_D_seats": 49.87885, "expected_R_seats": 50.12115 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.9129 } } }, { "d": "2026-08-24", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.6543, "expected_D_seats": 226.16615 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.4253, "expected_D_seats": 49.9078, "expected_R_seats": 50.0922 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.93115 } } }, { "d": "2026-08-25", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.6537, "expected_D_seats": 226.1192 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.43485, "expected_D_seats": 50.00155, "expected_R_seats": 49.99845 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.846 } } }, { "d": "2026-08-26", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.69615, "expected_D_seats": 227.02805 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.42455, "expected_D_seats": 49.91255, "expected_R_seats": 50.08745 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.9497 } } }, { "d": "2026-08-27", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.70145, "expected_D_seats": 227.2557 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.4325, "expected_D_seats": 50.00335, "expected_R_seats": 49.99665 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.94415 } } }, { "d": "2026-08-28", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.6991, "expected_D_seats": 227.20045 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.4364, "expected_D_seats": 50.05185, "expected_R_seats": 49.94815 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.93595 } } }, { "d": "2026-08-29", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.69, "expected_D_seats": 227.0745 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.4314, "expected_D_seats": 49.9836, "expected_R_seats": 50.0164 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.90075 } } }, { "d": "2026-08-30", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.68465, "expected_D_seats": 226.9116 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.433, "expected_D_seats": 49.99405, "expected_R_seats": 50.00595 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.8594 } } }, { "d": "2026-08-31", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.68815, "expected_D_seats": 227.17235 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.432, "expected_D_seats": 49.97485, "expected_R_seats": 50.02515 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.90175 } } }, { "d": "2026-09-01", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.69495, "expected_D_seats": 227.1055 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.4393, "expected_D_seats": 50.0152, "expected_R_seats": 49.9848 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.85875 } } }, { "d": "2026-09-02", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.6884, "expected_D_seats": 226.95555 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.43775, "expected_D_seats": 49.98205, "expected_R_seats": 50.01795 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.91435 } } }, { "d": "2026-09-03", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.7122, "expected_D_seats": 227.98675 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.4369, "expected_D_seats": 50.00765, "expected_R_seats": 49.99235 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.96805 } } }, { "d": "2026-09-04", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.72105, "expected_D_seats": 228.21935 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.44, "expected_D_seats": 50.0204, "expected_R_seats": 49.9796 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.98485 } } }, { "d": "2026-09-05", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.7471, "expected_D_seats": 229.3262 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.4385, "expected_D_seats": 49.9981, "expected_R_seats": 50.0019 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 19.00835 } } }, { "d": "2026-09-06", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.7278, "expected_D_seats": 228.94135 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.4356, "expected_D_seats": 49.9796, "expected_R_seats": 50.0204 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 19.004 } } }, { "d": "2026-09-07", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.73445, "expected_D_seats": 229.16675 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.43865, "expected_D_seats": 49.99185, "expected_R_seats": 50.00815 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 18.98975 } } }, { "d": "2026-09-08", "house": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.73285, "expected_D_seats": 229.19515 } }, "senate": { "values": { "control_prob_D": 0.43465, "expected_D_seats": 49.9655, "expected_R_seats": 50.0345 } }, "governor": { "values": { "expected_D_wins_of_36": 19.0233 } } } ] }, "legacy": { "model": "CTMM v1", "edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "preserved_at": "data/model/ctmm21/history_ctmm_v1_ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b.json", "note": "Earlier model histories remain archived verbatim and are not joined to the CTMM 2.2 series. Model corrections are not voter movement." }, "revisions_by_race": {}, "same_day_revisions": [], "topline_revisions": [] }