CA-47 · U.S. House
Open this race on The Map ↗Dave Min is heavily favored to hold CA-47’s House seat. Predicted margin: D+20.3.
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
Forecast history
Latest reading · Sep 13 · first published Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points D+12.6 to D+28.1. Methodology
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About this series
This comparable series begins on September 9, 2026, when the model version changed to CTMM 2.2. Earlier readings remain in the archive and are not joined as voter movement; faded points before September 9, 2026 are reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those days.
Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | D+2.9 | 353,275 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | D+3.4 | 265,635 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | D+26.5 | 311,399 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | D+29.7 | 221,036 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.
The money
Dave Min ↗
D$3.4Mraised
$1.9M cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Jenny Rae Le Roux ↗
R$376Kraised
$129K cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $0
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $0
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee receipts are counted through Sep 1, 2026. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
Outside spending
Support + opposition · separate from receiptsFor and against Dave Min$697K
2 spending groups
| Group | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| LCV Victory Fund | $589K | $0 |
| Protect Progress | $108K | $0 |
Includes primary spending. Opposition is recorded against its named target; no benefit to another candidate is assumed.
No outside spending matched: Jenny Rae Le Roux.
FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 241,631
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+10.5