WA-05 · U.S. House
Open this race on The Map ↗The Republican candidate is narrowly favored to hold WA-05’s House seat. Predicted margin: R+7.0.
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
Forecast history
Latest reading · Sep 13 · first published Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points R+14.5 to D+0.5. Methodology
Hover the line, tap it, or use the arrow keys to inspect its history.
About this series
This comparable series begins on September 9, 2026, when the model version changed to CTMM 2.2. Earlier readings remain in the archive and are not joined as voter movement; faded points before September 9, 2026 are reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those days.
Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.
The polls
Ledger weighted average R+6.0Used by the forecast: 1 poll (60-day half-life) · measured R+6.0 · after the fitted poll-error shift R+6.01 recorded poll · 1 eligible for the aggregate · 1 with positive weight
| Fieldwork | Added | Pollster | Result | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-05-18 | Tavern Research ↗Contours Inc. | R+6.0D 47% · R 53% | 578 LV |
How the margin was built
Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.
The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded.
All calculations & sources
This district's measured terrain −10.838 points
Call the Map's partisan lean on the CURRENT district lines, before any current-cycle evidence. Every pull below is measured from here — not from EVEN.
- Call the Map partisan lean, district geography bound to this forecast edition.
- Prior source: observed_unchanged_lines.
Fitted model, above the terrain shown +1.889 points
What the fitted model adds on top of the starting terrain above — incumbency, past results, campaign finance and the other fitted terms — measured from that terrain rather than from EVEN. It is a comparison with the starting point already shown, not a separate input. The source detail lists the variables the fit uses.
- Fitted baseline -8.949 minus starting point -10.838 = 1.889 points.
- Presidential-margin-by-congressional-district dynamic core.
- Presidential-margin-by-congressional-district dynamic core (Jul 8 2026 deploy): a mass fit across district demographics, fundraising, incumbency, and past-cycle overperformance, trained on all 435 districts at once instead of a hand-built lean+incumbency recipe.
- The work: the core's fitted terms sum to −8.9 — the fundamentals row.
- fundamentals core = 25-term dynamic formula (mass fit over the master feature matrix, held-out-cycle validated; see matrix/feature_dictionary.md + mass_fit_report.json)
- 40-term formula, held-out validated.
National environment +1.365 points
The contribution to this race’s margin, not the national polling margin itself. The race’s loading, reference level and polling blend determine how much of the national climate reaches its final forecast.
- Three-source blend, updated 2026-09-08: 52% generic-ballot aggregates (D+6.5) · 28% special-election overperformance (D+9.0 across 46 specials) · 20% approval-implied (D+8.6 from net approval -21.7).
- Latest polls — generic ballot 2026-09-08 (5 days old), approval 2026-09-10 (3 days old).
- Generic-ballot average D+6.5 · support factor 0.84 (the share of that channel's capacity the admitted polls carry) — separate inputs; their product is a capacity diagnostic, not a margin.
- Weights are the 55/25/20 capacities scaled by each channel's evidence and renormalized, so thin polling widens the interval instead of pulling the center toward zero — 16% of the weight is carried that way.
- Blended national environment: D+7.6.
- Applied at full strength to this chamber's races.
- The work: national environment × 1 chamber strength = +1.4 of this margin.
- Blended national environment: D+7.6 (updated 2026-09-08).
- Effective poll weight 84%; fundamentals share 16%, carried by the interval (×1.08) rather than by the center.
- The support factor is the share of the generic-ballot capacity the admitted polls carry; average × support is a capacity diagnostic, not a margin, and is not what the row above multiplies.
- Applied at full strength to this chamber: +1.4 of this margin.
This race’s polls +0.606 points
What this race’s own recent polling adds beyond its prior, after each poll is weighted for recency, sample size and pollster quality.
- Tavern Research (2026-05-25, n=578): R+6.0 · weight 0.03
- Adjusted poll-bank aggregate R+6.0 · 1 recorded poll · 1 eligible for the aggregate · 1 with positive weight. The sealed model records a net polling contribution of +0.6 D. Observation weights are not the final model blend weight. Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-05-25 (111 days old).
- Adjusted poll-bank aggregate R+6.0 · 1 recorded poll · 1 eligible for the aggregate · 1 with positive weight; recorded polling contribution +0.6 D. These observation weights must not be read as the model’s final prior-versus-polling weight. Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-05-25 (111 days old).
The components this edition publishes for this race, in points. “Other factors” closes the sum to the two-party structural lean exactly. Here the structural lean IS the published margin, so the walk sums to the projection exactly; nothing is left over.
| Named factor | Contribution |
|---|---|
| FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race. | −8.95 |
| National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin. | +1.37 |
| This race's pollsAdmitted head-to-head polls of this race, recency- and quality-weighted. | +0.61 |
| Other factors | 0.00 |
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | R+21.3 | 397,286 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | R+19.3 | 317,006 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | R+22.8 | 404,360 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | R+9.5 | 320,347 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 313,265
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+11.1
Population profile Select a measure for its source and denominator
U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗