CA-27 · U.S. House
Open this race on The Map ↗George Whitesides is heavily favored to hold CA-27’s House seat. Predicted margin: D+20.0.
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
About this field
North LA County flip in 2024.
Forecast share averages the simulated vote. Win chance counts how often a candidate wins. A wider range of outcomes can give a candidate a higher win chance despite a lower average share.
Forecast history
Latest reading · Sep 13 · first published Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points D+12.3 to D+27.7. Methodology
Hover the line, tap it, or use the arrow keys to inspect its history.
About this series
This comparable series begins on September 9, 2026, when the model version changed to CTMM 2.2. Earlier readings remain in the archive and are not joined as voter movement; faded points before September 9, 2026 are reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those days.
Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | D+2.7 | 300,090 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | R+6.5 | 196,516 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | D+39.6 | 317,318 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | Not a D–R contestThe ballot was not a Democrat versus a Republican; a D/R margin cannot identify the winner. | 202,636 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.
The money
George Whitesides ↗
D$4.0Mraised
$2.6M cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Jason Gibbs ↗
R$379Kraised
$202K cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $0
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $0
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee receipts are counted through Sep 1, 2026. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
Outside spending
Support + opposition · separate from receiptsFor and against George Whitesides$1.1M
2 spending groups
| Group | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| LCV Victory Fund | $599K | $0 |
| Protect Progress | $476K | $0 |
Includes primary spending. Opposition is recorded against its named target; no benefit to another candidate is assumed.
No outside spending matched: Jason Gibbs.
FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 199,970
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+10.1