CA-23 · U.S. House
Jay Obernolte is heavily favored to hold California’s 23rd congressional district. Predicted margin: R+11.4.
Under each share, its likely range (80 in 100 simulations) · * incumbent
Forecast history
Latest reading · Oct 28 · first published Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points R+18.9 to R+4.0. Methodology
About this series
Reconstructed with the current model Aug 1 – Sep 8 and Sep 16 – Sep 18; published readings Sep 9 – Oct 28. Each reconstructed day is the current model on that day’s own inputs, not a forecast published then. Corrections are dated in the changelog.
Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.
CTMM 2.2 readings for 2026-09-16, 2026-09-17, 2026-09-18 were computed after the fact with each day's available inputs: no edition was issued on those days. Not an issued forecast.
Data table
| Date | Margin | Chance | 80% range | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | R+11.4 | R win 96.5% | R+18.9 to R+4.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 27 | R+11.4 | R win 96.5% | R+18.9 to R+4.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 26 | R+11.5 | R win 96.5% | R+18.9 to R+4.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 25 | R+11.5 | R win 96.5% | R+18.9 to R+4.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 24 | R+11.5 | R win 96.5% | R+19.0 to R+4.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 23 | R+11.5 | R win 96.5% | R+19.0 to R+4.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 22 | R+11.5 | R win 96.5% | R+19.0 to R+4.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 21 | R+11.5 | R win 96.5% | R+19.0 to R+4.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 20 | R+11.6 | R win 96.5% | R+19.1 to R+4.1 | Published forecast |
| Oct 19 | R+11.6 | R win 96.5% | R+19.1 to R+4.1 | Published forecast |
| Oct 18 | R+11.6 | R win 96.5% | R+19.1 to R+4.1 | Published forecast |
| Oct 17 | R+11.6 | R win 96.5% | R+19.1 to R+4.1 | Published forecast |
| Oct 16 | R+11.7 | R win 96.6% | R+19.2 to R+4.1 | Published forecast |
| Oct 15 | R+11.7 | R win 96.6% | R+19.2 to R+4.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 14 | R+11.7 | R win 96.6% | R+19.3 to R+4.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 13 | R+11.7 | R win 96.6% | R+19.3 to R+4.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 12 | R+11.7 | R win 96.6% | R+19.3 to R+4.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 11 | R+11.7 | R win 96.6% | R+19.3 to R+4.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 10 | R+11.7 | R win 96.6% | R+19.3 to R+4.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 9 | R+11.8 | R win 96.6% | R+19.3 to R+4.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 8 | R+11.8 | R win 96.6% | R+19.3 to R+4.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 7 | R+11.8 | R win 96.6% | R+19.3 to R+4.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 6 | R+11.9 | R win 96.7% | R+19.5 to R+4.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 5 | R+11.9 | R win 96.7% | R+19.5 to R+4.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 4 | R+11.9 | R win 96.7% | R+19.5 to R+4.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 3 | R+11.9 | R win 96.8% | R+19.5 to R+4.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 2 | R+11.9 | R win 96.9% | R+19.5 to R+4.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 1 | R+11.9 | R win 96.8% | R+19.5 to R+4.3 | Published forecast |
| Sep 30 | R+11.9 | R win 96.8% | R+19.5 to R+4.3 | Published forecast |
| Sep 29 | R+11.9 | R win 96.7% | R+19.5 to R+4.3 | Published forecast |
| Sep 28 | R+11.9 | R win 96.8% | R+19.6 to R+4.3 | Published forecast |
| Sep 27 | R+11.9 | R win 96.8% | R+19.6 to R+4.3 | Published forecast |
| Sep 26 | R+11.9 | R win 96.8% | R+19.6 to R+4.3 | Published forecast |
| Sep 25 | R+11.9 | R win 96.7% | R+19.6 to R+4.3 | Published forecast |
| Sep 24 | R+12.0 | R win 96.7% | R+19.6 to R+4.3 | Published forecast |
| Sep 23 | R+12.0 | R win 96.8% | R+19.7 to R+4.4 | Published forecast |
| Sep 22 | R+12.1 | R win 96.9% | R+19.7 to R+4.4 | Published forecast |
| Sep 21 | R+12.1 | R win 96.9% | R+19.7 to R+4.4 | Published forecast |
| Sep 20 | R+12.1 | R win 96.8% | R+19.7 to R+4.4 | Published forecast |
| Sep 19 | R+12.1 | R win 96.7% | R+19.8 to R+4.4 | Published forecast |
| Sep 18 | R+12.0 | R win 96.8% | R+19.7 to R+4.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 17 | R+12.0 | R win 96.8% | R+19.7 to R+4.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 16 | R+12.1 | R win 96.8% | R+19.7 to R+4.4 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 15 | R+12.2 | R win 96.9% | R+19.9 to R+4.5 | Published forecast |
| Sep 14 | R+12.2 | R win 96.7% | R+19.9 to R+4.5 | Published forecast |
| Sep 13 | R+12.2 | R win 96.9% | R+19.9 to R+4.5 | Published forecast |
| Sep 12 | R+12.2 | R win 96.8% | R+19.9 to R+4.5 | Published forecast |
| Sep 11 | R+12.2 | R win 96.9% | R+19.9 to R+4.5 | Published forecast |
| Sep 10 | R+12.3 | R win 96.9% | R+20.0 to R+4.6 | Published forecast |
| Sep 9 | R+12.3 | R win 96.9% | R+20.0 to R+4.6 | Published forecast |
| Sep 8 | R+12.4 | R win 97.0% | R+20.1 to R+4.6 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 7 | R+12.4 | R win 97.0% | R+20.2 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 6 | R+12.4 | R win 97.0% | R+20.2 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 5 | R+12.4 | R win 97.0% | R+20.2 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 4 | R+12.5 | R win 97.0% | R+20.2 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 3 | R+12.5 | R win 97.0% | R+20.3 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 2 | R+12.5 | R win 97.0% | R+20.3 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 1 | R+12.5 | R win 97.0% | R+20.3 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 31 | R+12.5 | R win 97.0% | R+20.2 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 30 | R+12.5 | R win 97.0% | R+20.3 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 29 | R+12.4 | R win 97.0% | R+20.2 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 28 | R+12.5 | R win 97.0% | R+20.3 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 27 | R+12.5 | R win 97.0% | R+20.3 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 26 | R+12.5 | R win 97.0% | R+20.3 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 25 | R+12.5 | R win 97.0% | R+20.3 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 24 | R+12.5 | R win 97.0% | R+20.3 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 23 | R+12.5 | R win 97.0% | R+20.3 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 22 | R+12.5 | R win 97.0% | R+20.3 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 21 | R+12.5 | R win 96.9% | R+20.4 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 20 | R+12.5 | R win 96.8% | R+20.4 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 19 | R+12.5 | R win 96.8% | R+20.4 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 18 | R+12.5 | R win 96.8% | R+20.4 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 17 | R+12.5 | R win 96.8% | R+20.4 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 16 | R+12.5 | R win 96.8% | R+20.4 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 15 | R+12.5 | R win 96.8% | R+20.4 to R+4.6 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 14 | R+12.6 | R win 96.9% | R+20.4 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 13 | R+12.6 | R win 96.9% | R+20.4 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 12 | R+12.5 | R win 96.8% | R+20.4 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 11 | R+12.5 | R win 96.8% | R+20.4 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 10 | R+12.5 | R win 96.8% | R+20.4 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 9 | R+12.5 | R win 96.8% | R+20.4 to R+4.6 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 8 | R+12.5 | R win 96.8% | R+20.4 to R+4.6 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 7 | R+12.5 | R win 96.8% | R+20.5 to R+4.6 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 6 | R+12.6 | R win 96.9% | R+20.6 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 5 | R+12.6 | R win 96.9% | R+20.6 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 4 | R+12.6 | R win 96.8% | R+20.6 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 3 | R+12.6 | R win 96.8% | R+20.6 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 2 | R+12.7 | R win 96.8% | R+20.6 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 1 | R+12.7 | R win 96.8% | R+20.6 to R+4.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
Where the votes are
The map of this race loads here.
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | R+20.3 | 264,849 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | R+22.1 | 169,105 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | R+24.3 | 306,118 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | R+27.4 | 205,774 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins are the Democrat’s share of all votes cast minus the Republican’s.
The money
Jay Obernolte ↗
R$1.5Mraised
$1.6M cash on hand
Tessa Lynn Hodge ↗
D$79Kraised
$10K cash on hand
The tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $325
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $325
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee supports are counted as each one arrives. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
Supporters are listed by first name and last initial; a username alone is shortened to its first eight characters. Want your full name shown? Say so in your message. Give privately, or leave the name blank, and you are listed as Anonymous, with the platform and date. Supporters who give a name may also be thanked by name in the newsletter.
Thank you to Tom H., ColoradoFlyer, Chris, EW, gbaileym…, True Independent, MT V., JBL, Erin G., Caroline M., Melanie, MKV and 7 more.
Outside spending
Separate from what the campaigns raisedFor and against Jay Obernolte$278K
2 spending groups
| Group | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| AMERICAN MISSION | $260K | $0 |
| WORKING CLASS HEROES FUND | $0 | $19K |
Includes primary spending. Opposition is recorded against its named target; no benefit to another candidate is assumed.
$460K in outside spending on earlier candidates.
No outside spending matched: Tessa Lynn Hodge.
FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method
Race context
- 2024 presidential vote here
- 276,563
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+19.9between the two parties
Forecast as of October 28, 2026: Call the Map currently has Jay Obernolte ahead of Tessa Lynn Hodge by R+11.4, with a 96 in 100 chance to win. The seat is currently held by a Republican. That result would keep the seat with Republicans. No current nominee-matched poll average is available, so the forecast is leaning on the non-polling evidence shown below.