The House · CA-23
Projected turnout: 185,632 votes · model estimate, not counted votes.
Displayed shares include the model's Other-vote allowance and therefore add to 100%. Interval endpoints are the model's 10th and 90th percentiles, not a polling margin of error.
SURE — · not yet rateable
How reliable is the evidence behind this race's number — not who wins. A safe seat with no polls can score low while its forecast is easy.
No public poll of this race has been fielded yet. SURE rates poll evidence, so it has nothing to rate here — this is an absence of evidence, not a judgement that the evidence is weak.
Limited evidence: zero polls. The fitted race-error distribution widens automatically; no manual score penalty or race override is applied.
| Effective poll evidence | 0.00 |
|---|---|
| Race-specific error SD | 4.0 points |
| Historically calibrated 80% half-range | ±5.7 |
| Model treatment | provisional widen-only chamber fallback |
| ✓ Fundamentals✓ Environment✗ Polls✗ Money (FEC)✓ Roster settled | |
SURE v3 — historically calibrated evidence-conditioned uncertainty · generated 2026-07-27. SURE rates the EVIDENCE behind a race's number, not the outcome: a safe seat with no polls can score low while its forecast is easy. Never a second win probability. It changes only idiosyncratic uncertainty, never the center. Senate marginal intervals are historically calibrated under the stated 0-120 day assumptions; House/Governor conditioning is provisional and widen-only until chamber-specific history passes the same gates.
County map
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
County by county
| County | Margin | Tessa Lynn Hodge | Jay Obernolte | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Bernardino | R+11.8 | 71,055 | 90,350 | 164,029 |
| Riverside | R+14.5 | 6,673 | 8,981 | 15,909 |
| Kern | R+14.8 | 1,365 | 1,846 | 3,263 |
| Los Angeles | D+3.4 | 1,219 | 1,138 | 2,395 |
| Imperial | R+43.6 | 10 | 26 | 37 |
Projected — each county's share of THIS district only (split counties count just the votes inside the lines), summing to the forecast above.
State of the race
Call the Map currently has Obernolte ahead of Hodge by R+11.9, with a 98 in 100 chance to win. The seat is currently held by a Republican. That result would keep the seat with Republicans. No current nominee-matched poll average is available, so the forecast is leaning on the non-polling evidence shown below.
- CTM forecast
- Solid R hold · 98 in 100
- Seat
- Rep.-held · projected hold
- Forecast range
- R+19.6 to R+4.2
How the race is moving
98%R win probability today
Since the Jul 21 edition: margin 2.2 pts toward R · win probability -1 pts D
Tracked editions only. The pale segment marks the time remaining to Election Day; it is not fabricated future data. Hover, tap, or focus a chart and use the arrow keys for each edition's exact values.
How the margin was built
6 contributions, summing to the forecast R+11.9. Every model adjustment is published here — including candidate-quality shifts. Read how the whole margin is built →
TWIN neighbours
TWIN means Typology-Weighted Inference from Neighbors, Call the Map’s comparable-unit matching engine for any kind of race. It borrows poll residuals only—never centers, terrain, or outcomes. Similarity is demographic and behavioural, not geographic, and each contribution decays with similarity distance. Borrowed evidence always has lower precision than a race’s own polling.
| Race | Role | Similarity | Residual contributed | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WA-04 | Fellow recipient | 0.723 | ±0.000 pts | none |
| TX-06 | Fellow recipient | 0.647 | ±0.000 pts | none |
| CA-20 | Fellow recipient | 0.624 | ±0.000 pts | none |
| TX-27 | Fellow recipient | 0.613 | ±0.000 pts | none |
| TX-17 | Fellow recipient | 0.606 | ±0.000 pts | none |
| TX-19 | Fellow recipient | 0.604 | ±0.000 pts | none |
| TX-36 | Fellow recipient | 0.593 | ±0.000 pts | none |
| TX-11 | Fellow recipient | 0.591 | ±0.000 pts | none |
| CA-05 | Fellow recipient | 0.582 | ±0.000 pts | none |
| TX-13 | Fellow recipient | 0.574 | ±0.000 pts | none |
Signals at a glance
- CTM Partisan Lean Index
- R+19.6
- Historical match quality
- 87/100 — How closely this race matches its eight historical analogues; not a win probability.
Recent polling
No polls yet for this race — the forecast rests on fundamentals only (partisan lean, fundraising, incumbency).
Money in this race
Who does this money help? These are independent expenditures — spending by groups that are not the campaigns and may not coordinate with them. Each dollar is reported either supporting one candidate or opposing another, and both can help the same person, so the table below nets them out per candidate. It lists everyone with reported activity in this cycle's FEC filings — which can include primary candidates who are no longer on the ballot.
| Candidate | Supporting them | Opposing them | Net for them |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Matthews IPrimary field | $460.2K | — | +$460.2K |
| Jay Obernolte RPrimary field | $259.7K | $18.7K | +$241K |
Direct PAC support
- Jay ObernolteNot on the ballot$755.5K
- Tessa Lynn HodgeNot on the ballot$250
Top outside spenders
Official FEC independent expenditures. Cycle totals may include primary spending. Direct PAC totals include governed committee contributions and in-kind contributions. Campaign-video embeds are metadata-only editorial context from exact, reviewed channels; inclusion does not establish paid placement. Outside spending and campaign videos have zero forecast weight; direct PAC activity is reporting only.