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FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
Race polling · SEN-NC

North Carolina Senate polls

Roy Cooper (D) vs Michael Whatley (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Adjusted aggregateD+7.8same figure as the race page
Polls3131 recorded polls · 31 eligible for the aggregate · 31 with positive weight
Latest field dateSep 3Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-03 (10 days old)
EditionSep 11weights and corrections as of this edition

The polls the model reads

hover, tap or Tab to any poll
last 30 daysEVEND+10D+20D+30Sep ’25NovJan ’26MarMayJulSep
  • counted poll · area is its model weight
  • weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
  • poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
  • published average
  • 30 days before this edition

Every poll on file · 38

newest first

34 in the aggregate · 4 shown, not counted

PollsterFieldedAddedSampleResultWeightSource
●East Carolina University Center for Survey ResearchGeneral · Senate675 LVRoy Cooper 52Michael Whatley 44Shannon Bray 3Michael Dublin 1+1 other release2d ago0.625Poll release
●Elon University/YouGovGeneral · Senate565 LVRoy Cooper 49Michael Whatley 38Shannon Bray 2Michael Dublin 23d ago0.371Poll document
●YouGovGeneral565 LVRoy Cooper 49Michael Whatley 38Don't know 8Michael Dublin 2Shannon Bray 2Would not vote 0Someone else 0+2 other releases4d ago0.437Poll document
●High Point University Survey Research CenterGeneral · Senate660 LVRoy Cooper 50Michael Whatley 45+1 other release0.214Poll document
●High Point UniversityGeneral660 LVRoy Cooper 50Michael Whatley 45Don't know/Would not vote 3Someone else 3+1 other release0.214Poll release
●High Point University/YouGovGeneral800 RVRoy Cooper 48Michael Whatley 410.236Poll document
●Harper PollingGeneral · Senate600 LVRoy Cooper 51.5Michael Whatley 39+1 other release0.296Poll release
●Change ResearchGeneral · Senate · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan915 LVRoy Cooper 50Michael Whatley 43+1 other release0.192Poll release
●Change ResearchGeneral · Senate967 LVRoy Cooper 50Michael Whatley 41+1 other release0.168Pollster post
●YouGovGeneral466 LVRoy Cooper 53Michael Whatley 42Don't know 2Shannon Bray 2Michael Dublin 1Someone else 0+2 other releases0.143Poll document
●Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchGeneral · Senate1,005 RVRoy Cooper 53Michael Whatley 440.188News coverage
●Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchGeneral1,005 RVRoy Cooper 53Michael Whatley 44Don't know 2Would not vote 0Someone else 00.188News coverage

Archive source date 2026-09-11 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.