North Carolina Senate polls 2026
Roy Cooper (D) vs Michael Whatley (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageD+9.6the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls5757 on file · 45 in the poll average · 12 not counted
Latest field dateOct 25Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-25 (3 days old)
EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 28, 2026D+9.6today's poll average of 45 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- not counted · shown, never moves the line
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
- left of the break: 3 earlier polls, not on the time axis
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | D+9.6 | D+9.6 |
| Oct 25–Oct 27, 2026 | D+9.6 | D+9.6 |
| Oct 20–Oct 24, 2026 | D+9.5 | D+9.6 |
| Oct 11–Oct 19, 2026 | D+9.2 | D+9.2 to D+9.6 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | D+8.7 | D+9.2 |
| Oct 8–Oct 9, 2026 | D+8.7 | D+9.1 to D+9.2 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | D+8.7 | D+9.1 |
| Oct 3–Oct 6, 2026 | D+8.7 | D+8.9 to D+9.1 |
| Sep 29–Oct 2, 2026 | D+8.8 | D+8.8 to D+8.9 |
| Sep 22–Sep 28, 2026 | D+8.4 | D+8.6 to D+8.7 |
| Sep 20–Sep 21, 2026 | D+8.7 | D+8.6 |
| Sep 18–Sep 19, 2026 | D+8.4 | D+8.5 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | D+8.3 | D+8.5 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | D+8.7 | D+8.5 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | D+8.5 | D+8.5 |
| Sep 10–Sep 14, 2026 | D+8.0 | D+8.2 to D+8.5 |
| Sep 3–Sep 9, 2026 | D+8.5 | D+8.3 to D+8.2 |
| Aug 31–Sep 2, 2026 | D+8.5 | D+8.4 to D+8.3 |
| Aug 12–Aug 30, 2026 | D+8.4 | D+8.4 |
| Aug 10–Aug 11, 2026 | D+8.8 | D+8.4 |
| Aug 6–Aug 9, 2026 | D+8.4 | D+8.5 to D+8.4 |
| Aug 1–Aug 5, 2026 | D+8.5 | D+8.5 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | D+8.5 | D+8.5 |
| Jul 27–Jul 30, 2026 | D+8.5 | D+8.4 to D+8.5 |
| Jul 11–Jul 26, 2026 | D+8.4 | D+8.4 |
| Jun 27–Jul 10, 2026 | D+9.2 | D+9.2 to D+8.4 |
| Jun 10–Jun 26, 2026 | D+9.8 | D+9.8 to D+9.2 |
| May 11–Jun 9, 2026 | D+9.1 | D+9.1 to D+9.8 |
| May 8–May 10, 2026 | D+8.9 | D+9.1 |
| Apr 24–May 7, 2026 | D+9.2 | D+9.2 to D+9.1 |
| Apr 6–Apr 23, 2026 | D+9.2 | D+9.2 |
| Apr 1–Apr 5, 2026 | D+9.5 | D+9.3 to D+9.2 |
| Mar 23–Mar 31, 2026 | D+10.9 | D+10.5 to D+9.3 |
| Mar 18–Mar 22, 2026 | D+11.6 | D+11.2 to D+10.6 |
| Mar 14–Mar 17, 2026 | D+10.6 | D+11.4 to D+11.3 |
| Feb 4–Mar 13, 2026 | D+14.5 | D+14.5 to D+11.4 |
| Jan 15–Feb 3, 2026 | D+14.4 | D+14.4 to D+14.5 |
| Jan 7–Jan 14, 2026 | D+5.8 | D+10.3 to D+14.3 |
| Nov 10–Jan 6, 2026 | D+7.1 | D+7.1 to D+9.3 |
| Sep 15–Nov 9, 2025 | D+5.7 | D+5.7 to D+7.1 |
| Sep 8–Sep 14, 2025 | D+7.0 | D+6.2 to D+5.7 |
In Senate races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at a quarter of its weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+9.8.
Every poll on file · 57
newest added first45 in the poll average · 12 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●High Point UniversityGeneral | 620 LV | D+14.0Roy Cooper 54Michael Whatley 40Don't know/Would not vote 4Shannon Bray 2Michael Dublin 1 | 8h ago | 0.62 | Poll release | |
| ●Quantus InsightsGeneral · Senate | 722 LV | D+8.6Roy Cooper 51.4Michael Whatley 42.8Shannon Bray 1.3Michael Dublin 0.7 | 2d ago | 0.71 | Poll release | |
| ●Harper PollingGeneral · Senate | 600 LV | D+10.0Roy Cooper 49Michael Whatley 39Shannon Bray 3Michael Dublin 2+1 other release | 6d ago | 0.61 | Poll release | |
| Elon University/YouGovGeneral · Senate | 561 LV | D+13.0Roy Cooper 52Michael Whatley 39Shannon Bray 2Michael Dublin 1 | source not read by the model | Poll document | ||
| ●ActiVoteGeneral · Senate | 400 LV | D+13.8Roy Cooper 56.9Michael Whatley 43.1 | 0.50 | Poll release | ||
| ●YouGovGeneral | 560 LV | D+11.0Roy Cooper 54Michael Whatley 43Shannon Bray 2Would not vote 1Michael Dublin 1+2 other releases | 0.51 | Poll document | ||
| ●SurveyUSAGeneral | 643 LV | D+14.0Roy Cooper 54Michael Whatley 40Don't know 5Someone else 1 | 0.57 | Poll release | ||
| ●Change ResearchGeneral · Senate · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 829 LV | D+10.0Roy Cooper 50Michael Whatley 40Shannon Bray 2Michael Dublin 1 | 0.61 | Poll release | ||
| ●East Carolina University Center for Survey ResearchGeneral | 810 LV | D+7.0Roy Cooper 50Michael Whatley 43Don't know 6Shannon Bray 1Michael Dublin 0 | 0.58 | Poll release | ||
| ●Big Data PollGeneral | 642 LV | D+12.3Roy Cooper 50.8Michael Whatley 38.5Shannon Bray 6.5Michael Dublin 4.2+1 other release | 0.49 | Poll release | ||
| ●InsiderAdvantageGeneral | 1,200 LV | D+5.9Roy Cooper 48.4Michael Whatley 42.5Don't know 6.4Shannon Bray 1.6Michael Dublin 1.1 | 0.59 | Poll release | ||
| High Point University Survey Research CenterGeneral · Senate | 706 LV | D+8.0Roy Cooper 50Michael Whatley 42 | counted once · listed twice | Poll document |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.