Delaware · U.S. Senate
Open this race on The Map ↗The Democratic nominee is heavily favored to hold Delaware’s Senate seat. Predicted margin: D+31.1.
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
About this field
Not competitive.
Forecast share averages the simulated vote. Win chance counts how often a candidate wins. A wider range of outcomes can give a candidate a higher win chance despite a lower average share.
Forecast history
Latest reading · Sep 13 · first published Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points D+18.0 to D+44.3. Methodology
Hover the line, tap it, or use the arrow keys to inspect its history.
About this series
This comparable series begins on September 9, 2026, when the model version changed to CTMM 2.2. Earlier readings remain in the archive and are not joined as voter movement; faded points before September 9, 2026 are reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those days.
Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.
How the margin was built
Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.
The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded.
All calculations & sources
How this state voted, 2024 +14.740 points
The state's two-party presidential margin in 2024, from our own county sums — the same measurement the model's statewide terrain center is built from. Every pull below is measured from here, not from EVEN, which is why a landslide seat's listed pulls are small numbers and still land where the forecast does.
- 2024 presidential result for this state, two-party, from Call the Map's own county sums.
- Same source as Act I's 2024-president reference mark, so the origin lands on it.
Fitted model, above the terrain shown +9.900 points
What the fitted model adds on top of the starting terrain above — incumbency, past results, campaign finance and the other fitted terms — measured from that terrain rather than from EVEN. It is a comparison with the starting point already shown, not a separate input. The source detail lists the variables the fit uses.
- Fitted baseline 24.640 minus starting point 14.740 = 9.900 points.
- For orientation, the presidential results here: 2024 D+14.7, 2020 D+19.0.
- The work: the +24.6 D fundamentals push is the sum of the dynamic formula's surviving variables for this race — each one's own contribution is listed below.
- fundamentals core = 25-term dynamic formula (mass fit over the master feature matrix, held-out-cycle validated; see matrix/feature_dictionary.md + mass_fit_report.json)
- 9-term formula, held-out validated.
Structural safeguards +4.484 points
Bounded corrections that keep the model consistent with structural facts.
- Applied only when a safe state's dynamic fundamentals point in the same direction as its strong presidential lean but are materially compressed toward zero.
- The 25% correction toward that lean improved safe-race MAE in strict expanding-window validation without changing a historical call.
- The disclosed adjustment is +4.5 D.
National environment +1.988 points
The contribution to this race’s margin, not the national polling margin itself. The race’s loading, reference level and polling blend determine how much of the national climate reaches its final forecast.
- Three-source blend, updated 2026-09-08: 52% generic-ballot aggregates (D+6.5) · 28% special-election overperformance (D+9.0 across 46 specials) · 20% approval-implied (D+8.6 from net approval -21.7).
- Latest polls — generic ballot 2026-09-08 (5 days old), approval 2026-09-10 (3 days old).
- Generic-ballot average D+6.5 · support factor 0.84 (the share of that channel's capacity the admitted polls carry) — separate inputs; their product is a capacity diagnostic, not a margin.
- Weights are the 55/25/20 capacities scaled by each channel's evidence and renormalized, so thin polling widens the interval instead of pulling the center toward zero — 16% of the weight is carried that way.
- Blended national environment: D+7.6.
- Applied at full strength to this chamber's races.
- The work: national environment × 1 chamber strength = +2.0 D of this margin.
- Blended national environment: D+7.6 (updated 2026-09-08).
- Effective poll weight 84%; fundamentals share 16%, carried by the interval (×1.08) rather than by the center.
- The support factor is the share of the generic-ballot capacity the admitted polls carry; average × support is a capacity diagnostic, not a margin, and is not what the row above multiplies.
- Applied at full strength to this chamber: +2.0 of this margin.
The components this edition publishes for this race, in points. “Other factors” closes the sum to the two-party structural lean exactly. Here the structural lean IS the published margin, so the walk sums to the projection exactly; nothing is left over.
| Named factor | Contribution |
|---|---|
| FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race. | +24.64 |
| Structural terrain safeguardA bounded pull toward presidential terrain in heavily partisan states. | +4.48 |
| National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin. | +1.99 |
| Other factors | 0.00 |
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 · U.S. Senate ↗ | D+22.1 | 490,935 |
| 2014 · U.S. Senate ↗ | D+13.9 | 234,038 |
| 2008 · U.S. Senate ↗ | D+29.4 | 398,134 |
| 2002 · U.S. Senate ↗ | D+17.6 | 232,314 |
Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 339,910
- Forecast turnout
- 42.9% of the voting-eligible population
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+15.0
Statewide, 43.7% of the voting-eligible population is projected to cast a ballot; the lower figure above is the share projected to vote in this race.
Population profile Select a measure for its source and denominator
U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗
Coverage
1 story · 1 quote
- U.S. Senator Chris Coons is running for reelection in Delaware this fall. One of his opponents in next week’s Democratic primary is Eric Hansen, who ran for Senate as a Republican two years ago and who has changed his name to “E. No-Trump Hansen.” ↗
Bolts · Official · 2d ago
curated downballot newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match - Coons quietly pledges end to Palantir campaign funds after criticism ↗
Spotlight Delaware · Aug 25