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FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
← Senate3 November 2026 · 51 days out

Mississippi · U.S. Senate

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Cindy Hyde-Smith is narrowly favored to win. Projected candidate margin: Cindy Hyde-Smith over Scott Colom by 5.0 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: this race is between an independent and a major-party candidate, so the forecast is published per candidate rather than as a two-party margin.

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)71 in 10070.8%47.4high 54.3 · low 40.2
Scott Colom (D)29 in 10028.9%42.4high 49.2 · low 35.1
Ty Pinkins (I)<1 in 1000.3%8.9high 16.6 · low 3.1
Show all others (1)
Other (minor parties / write-ins)—1.3high 2.8 · low 0.2

Official ballot sources: Ty Pinkins (checked 2026-08-31).

high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations

About this field

Not competitive.

Forecast share averages the simulated vote. Win chance counts how often a candidate wins. A wider range of outcomes can give a candidate a higher win chance despite a lower average share.

Lean RRepublican-held seat

The polls

Ledger weighted average R+9.0Used by the forecast: 1 poll (60-day half-life) · measured R+8.0 · after the fitted poll-error shift R+9.61 recorded poll · 1 eligible for the aggregate · 1 with positive weight

FieldworkAddedPollsterResultSample
from 2026-08-05Data for Progress ↗Way to Lead PACR+6.0D 41% · R 47%1,018 LV
Explore all 1 poll for this race

How the candidate lead was built

Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.

Toward D+11.5
Toward R−16.5
Candidate leadR+5.0

The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded. This is a modeled partisan coordinate.

Cindy Hyde-Smith leads Scott Colom by 5.0 points (forecast share difference). The named candidate forecast also accounts for the field and election rules; its lead is a separate quantity from the partisan coordinate above.

The two-party D-versus-R coordinate, step by step

The walk above decomposes the published candidate lead. The model also carries a latent Democrat-minus-Republican coordinate, which is the quantity chamber seat and control arithmetic runs on. It is shown here at the same steps, as a secondary reading — it is not this race’s published forecast margin.

After this stepD−R coordinate
FundamentalsR+16.5
National environmentR+14.5
Campaign financeR+14.5
This race’s pollsR+13.2
Expert ratingsR+13.2
Election rules & guardsR+15.1
Historical calibrationR+15.1
The candidate fieldR+15.1
All calculations & sources

The candidate field +8.534 points

What the field itself contributes: the third principals on the ballot and the election rule, which a two-party coordinate has nowhere to put.

National environment +1.786 points

How much of the national climate reaches this race’s leader-versus-runner-up gap.

This race’s polls +1.158 points

What this race’s admitted polls move the leader-versus-runner-up gap by.

Fundamentals −14.785 points

What the fitted structural model contributes to the gap between the leader and the runner-up, before any of this cycle’s evidence.

Election rules & guards −1.726 points

Certified election-mechanics terms — ballot rules, guards and locks — as they bear on these two candidates.

These are the fitted model’s named contributions to the partisan coordinate, before the candidate-field calculation.

Named factorContribution
FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race.−16.46
National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin.+1.99
Structural terrain safeguardA bounded pull toward presidential terrain in heavily partisan states.−1.92
This race's pollsAdmitted head-to-head polls of this race, recency- and quality-weighted.+1.29
Other factors−0.00

Recent elections

ElectionResultVotes cast
2020 · U.S. Senate ↗R+10.21,311,354
2014 · U.S. Senate ↗R+22.5631,858
2008 · U.S. Senate ↗R+22.91,247,026
2002 · U.S. Senate ↗Not a D–R contestThe ballot was not a Democrat versus a Republican; a D/R margin cannot identify the winner.630,495

Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.

The money

Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.

One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $0

The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.

Received so far
$0
Measured compute
$26,188.58

Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee receipts are counted through Sep 1, 2026. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.

Ko-fi ↗Buy Me a Coffee ↗

See the public support ledger →

Outside spending

Support + opposition · separate from receipts

For and against Scott Colom$1.3M

3 spending groups
GroupForAgainst
Fulcrum PAC$880K$0
BlackPAC$411K$0
Field Team 6 Inc.$11K$0

For and against Cindy Hyde-Smith$1.6M

3 spending groups
GroupForAgainst
AB PAC$0$1.4M
Conservative Leaders of America$99K$0
NEW SOUTHERN MAJORITY IE PAC$0$52K

Includes primary spending. Opposition is recorded against its named target; no benefit to another candidate is assumed.

No outside spending matched: Ty Pinkins.

FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method

Race context

Forecast votes cast
762,410
Forecast turnout
35.5% of the voting-eligible population
2024 presidential margin
R+23.1

Statewide, 35.9% of the voting-eligible population is projected to cast a ballot; the lower figure above is the share projected to vote in this race.

Population profile Select a measure for its source and denominator

White alone · 56.9%1,685,024 of 2,958,846 · Residents2022 Census · matched race geography
Demographic source and limits

U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗

Coverage

2 stories

All coverage and full posts on the Wire →