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Ohio · House · State Legislature

The Ohio House Likely R

This is one of our least certain forecasts — state-legislative races have almost no district polling and many of these maps were redrawn. Read the range, not the midpoint. How this is modeled →

Forecast · candidate-independent chamber model

Republicans are favored to hold control of the Ohio House.

Chance of R control94 in 100Expected Democratic seats 36.8 of 9980% range 30–39
D 3499 seats · 50 for a majorityR 65
PVIR+5
Seats up in 202699
Chamber size99
Majority threshold50
District by district

99 seats, one per district. Hover a district for its seat; the table below opens with the closest races and carries the exact values.

Rating band
Striped = seat changes partyModeled seats use forecast paint; legal carries and terrain remain explicitly distinct
Forecast margin — pale at Even, deep at safe

Census Bureau 2025 1:500,000 cartographic boundaries — simplified geometry for thematic mapping, not legal district lines.

DemocratRepublican
23Republican — 53 in 100Dan TroyJulie BelichR+0.7
60Republican — 53 in 100Shelby Kimball · Eli WenzelPeggy Guzzo · Brian LorenzR+0.8
31Republican — 53 in 100J. Noah SpinnerMike Kahoe · Stephanie StockR+0.9
36Rose Lounsbury — 54 in 100Rose LounsburyAndrea WhiteD+0.9
35Republican — 56 in 100Samantha Salamon · Molly Kudley SchneiderSteve Demetriou · Vik SandhuR+1.4
14Republican — 56 in 100Sean BrennanDavid J. MorganR+1.5
10Republican — 57 in 100Mark SigristDenise D'AngeloR+1.7
53Democratic — 61 in 100Matt Lundy · Dan NuttBradley LackoD+2.7
49Republican — 61 in 100Krista Allison · Brit SteinerJim ThomasR+2.8
15Chris Glassburn — 62 in 100Chris GlassburnDaniel ConwayD+3.0
The Race Feed · 1 item across Ohio races →