Alaska

SenateD+0.9

U.S. House · projectedD 0 · R 1

GovernorD+22.1

2024 presidentR+13.8

Forecast as of October 24, 2026. U.S. Senate: Mary Peltola ahead of Dan S. Sullivan, with a 51 in 100 chance of winning after ranked-choice transfers. Projected final round: Mary Peltola 50.1, Dan S. Sullivan 49.9 (of ballots still counting). Governor: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins ahead of Bernadette Wilson, with an 86 in 100 chance of winning after ranked-choice transfers. Projected final round: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 53.6, Bernadette Wilson 46.4 (of ballots still counting). In 15 in 100 simulations the final round is Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins against Dave Bronson instead. U.S. House: Republicans are favored in the state's one district.

Closest races

U.S. SenateMary Peltola vs. Dan S. Sullivan · Gerald L. HeikesToss-upD+0.9 AK-ALNick Begich vs. Eric Hafner vs. James C. McDermottLean RR+11.6 GovernorFLIPJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vs. Bernadette Wilson · Dave Bronson · Treg TaylorLikely DD+22.1

Projected delegation: D 0 · R 1

AK-ALNick Begich vs. Eric Hafner vs. James C. McDermottLean RR+11.6

How Alaska decides its electionsone exception

U.S. Senate · U.S. House · GovernorAlaska — top-four primary, ranked-choice generalOur two-party margin is READ AS the final ranked-choice round rather than computed as one. There is no transfer model and no exhausted-ballot allowance: four federal ranked-choice races since 2020 is too little evidence to fit that behaviour, and the model lane's own ledger parks it for that reason. The first-choice ordering is therefore unforecast.